To reach human level intelligence, learning algorithms need to incorporate causal reasoning. But identifying causality, and particularly counterfactual reasoning, remains an elusive task. In this paper, we make progress on this task by utilizing instrumental variables (IVs). IVs are a classic tool for mitigating bias from unobserved confounders when estimating causal effects. While IV methods have been extended to non-separable structural models at the population level, existing approaches to counterfactual prediction typically assume additive noise in the outcome. In this paper, we show that under standard IV assumptions, along with the assumptions that latent noises in treatment and outcome are strictly monotonic and jointly Gaussian, the treatment-outcome relationship becomes uniquely identifiable from observed data. This enables counterfactual inference even in non-separable models. We implement our approach by training a normalizing flow to maximize the likelihood of the observed data, demonstrating accurate recovery of the underlying outcome function. We call our method Flow IV .

Accurate solar energy output prediction is key for integrating renewables into grids, maintaining stability, and improving energy management. However, standard error metrics such as Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE), Mean Absolute Error (MAE), and Skill Scores (SS) fail to capture the multidimensional nature of solar irradiance forecasting. These metrics lack sensitivity to forecastability, rely on arbitrary baselines (e.g., clear-sky models), and are poorly suited for operational use. To address this, we introduce the NICEk framework (Normalized Informed Comparison of Errors, with k = 1, 2, 3, Sigma), offering a robust and interpretable evaluation of forecasting models. Each NICEk score corresponds to an Lk norm: NICE1 targets average errors, NICE2 emphasizes large deviations, NICE3 highlights outliers, and NICESigma combines all. Using Monte Carlo simulations and data from 68 stations in the Spanish SIAR network, we evaluated methods including autoregressive models, extreme learning, and smart persistence. Theoretical and empirical results align when assumptions hold (e.g., R^2 ~ 1.0 for NICE2). Most importantly, NICESigma consistently shows higher discriminative power (p < 0.05), outperforming traditional metrics (p > 0.05). The NICEk metrics exhibit stronger statistical significance (e.g., p-values from 10^-6 to 0.004 across horizons) and greater generalizability. They offer a unified and operational alternative to standard error metrics in deterministic solar forecasting.

Large Language Models (LLMs) are known to overuse certain terms like "delve" and "intricate." The exact reasons for these lexical choices, however, have been unclear. Using Meta's Llama model, this study investigates the contribution of Learning from Human Feedback (LHF), under which we subsume Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback and Direct Preference Optimization. We present a straightforward procedure for detecting the lexical preferences of LLMs that are potentially LHF-induced. Next, we more conclusively link LHF to lexical overuse by experimentally emulating the LHF procedure and demonstrating that participants systematically prefer text variants that include certain words. This lexical overuse can be seen as a sort of misalignment, though our study highlights the potential divergence between the lexical expectations of different populations -- namely LHF workers versus LLM users. Our work contributes to the growing body of research on explainable artificial intelligence and emphasizes the importance of both data and procedural transparency in alignment research.

Traditional machine learning met hods, such as support vector machines (SVM), artificial neural networks (ANN), and logistic regression, have been employed to classify dates based on morphological features like color, t exture, and shape. While effective, these approaches often lack the flexibility and comprehensive quality control needed in modern agricultural practices. To address these limitations, the SmartDate system represents a significant technological advancement by integrat ing deep learning with genetic algorithms and reinforcement learning. This AI-driven system not only excels in date fruit classification but also predicts expiration dates, filling a cruci al gap in existing solutions. SmartDate leverages multispectral and hyperspectral imaging, coupled with Visible-Near-Infrared (VisNIR) spectral sensors, to assess key quality indicators such as moisture c ontent, sugar levels, firmness, and internal defects. This allows for a more thorough evaluation of fruit quality compared to co nventional methods. Moreover, the inclusion of reinforcement learning e nables SmartDate to adapt in real-time to production envir onment changes, optimizing sorting accuracy and ensuring t hat only premium quality dates reach the market.

The diagnosis of induction machines has traditionally relied on model-based methods that require the development of complex dynamic models, making them difficult to implement and computationally expensive. To overcome these limitations, this paper proposes a model-free approach using Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) for fault diagnosis in induction machines. The focus is on detecting multiple fault types -- including eccentricity, bearing defects, and broken rotor bars -- under varying severity levels and load conditions. Unlike traditional approaches, raw current and vibration signals are used as direct inputs, eliminating the need for signal preprocessing or manual feature extraction. The proposed GNN-ASE model automatically learns and extracts relevant features from raw inputs, leveraging the graph structure to capture complex relationships between signal types and fault patterns. It is evaluated for both individual fault detection and multi-class classification of combined fault conditions. Experimental results demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed model, achieving 92.5\% accuracy for eccentricity defects, 91.2\% for bearing faults, and 93.1\% for broken rotor bar detection. These findings highlight the model's robustness and generalization capability across different operational scenarios. The proposed GNN-based framework offers a lightweight yet powerful solution that simplifies implementation while maintaining high diagnostic performance. It stands as a promising alternative to conventional model-based diagnostic techniques for real-world induction machine monitoring and predictive maintenance.

The increasing availability of geospatial foundation models has the potential to transform remote sensing applications such as land cover classification, environmental monitoring, and change detection. Despite promising benchmark results, the deployment of these models in operational settings is challenging and rare. Standardized evaluation tasks often fail to capture real-world complexities relevant for end-user adoption such as data heterogeneity, resource constraints, and application-specific requirements. This paper presents a structured approach to integrate geospatial foundation models into operational mapping systems. Our protocol has three key steps: defining application requirements, adapting the model to domain-specific data and conducting rigorous empirical testing. Using the Presto model in a case study for crop mapping, we demonstrate that fine-tuning a pre-trained model significantly improves performance over conventional supervised methods. Our results highlight the model's strong spatial and temporal generalization capabilities. Our protocol provides a replicable blueprint for practitioners and lays the groundwork for future research to operationalize foundation models in diverse remote sensing applications. Application of the protocol to the WorldCereal global crop-mapping system showcases the framework's scalability.

Clustering patient subgroups is essential for personalized care and efficient resource use. Traditional clustering methods struggle with high-dimensional, heterogeneous healthcare data and lack contextual understanding. This study evaluates Large Language Model (LLM) based clustering against classical methods using a pediatric sepsis dataset from a low-income country (LIC), containing 2,686 records with 28 numerical and 119 categorical variables. Patient records were serialized into text with and without a clustering objective. Embeddings were generated using quantized LLAMA 3.1 8B, DeepSeek-R1-Distill-Llama-8B with low-rank adaptation(LoRA), and Stella-En-400M-V5 models. K-means clustering was applied to these embeddings. Classical comparisons included K-Medoids clustering on UMAP and FAMD-reduced mixed data. Silhouette scores and statistical tests evaluated cluster quality and distinctiveness. Stella-En-400M-V5 achieved the highest Silhouette Score (0.86). LLAMA 3.1 8B with the clustering objective performed better with higher number of clusters, identifying subgroups with distinct nutritional, clinical, and socioeconomic profiles. LLM-based methods outperformed classical techniques by capturing richer context and prioritizing key features. These results highlight potential of LLMs for contextual phenotyping and informed decision-making in resource-limited settings.

Regional disaster resilience quantifies the changing nature of physical risks to inform policy instruments ranging from local immediate recovery to international sustainable development. While many existing state-of-practice methods have greatly advanced the dynamic mapping of exposure and hazard, our understanding of large-scale physical vulnerability has remained static, costly, limited, region-specific, coarse-grained, overly aggregated, and inadequately calibrated. With the significant growth in the availability of time-series satellite imagery and derived products for exposure and hazard, we focus our work on the equally important yet challenging element of the risk equation: physical vulnerability. We leverage machine learning methods that flexibly capture spatial contextual relationships, limited temporal observations, and uncertainty in a unified probabilistic spatiotemporal inference framework. We therefore introduce Graph Variational State-Space Model (GraphVSSM), a novel modular spatiotemporal approach that uniquely integrates graph deep learning, state-space modeling, and variational inference using time-series data and prior expert belief systems in a weakly supervised or coarse-to-fine-grained manner. We present three major results: a city-wide demonstration in Quezon City, Philippines; an investigation of sudden changes in the cyclone-impacted coastal Khurushkul community (Bangladesh) and mudslide-affected Freetown (Sierra Leone); and an open geospatial dataset, METEOR 2.5D, that spatiotemporally enhances the existing global static dataset for UN Least Developed Countries (2020). Beyond advancing regional disaster resilience assessment and improving our understanding global disaster risk reduction progress, our method also offers a probabilistic deep learning approach, contributing to broader urban studies that require compositional data analysis in weak supervision.

Ensuring truthfulness in large language models remains a critical challenge for reliable text generation. While supervised fine-tuning and reinforcement learning with human feedback have shown promise, they require substantial amount of annotated data and computational resources, limiting scalability. In contrast, decoding-time interventions offer lightweight alternatives without model retraining. However, existing decoding strategies often face issues like prompt sensitivity, limited generalization, or dependence on internal model states. We propose a context-aware adaptive decoding method that leverages a compact reference grounding space, built from as few as 10 annotated examples and comprising pairs of context embeddings and next token logits from truthful responses, to enable retrieval-based logit shaping during inference. At each decoding step, our method retrieves top-N semantically similar contexts and aggregates their associated next token logits to modify the LLM's logits. Across three open-ended question-answering benchmarks, our approach achieves a 2.8 percent average improvement on TruthfulQA and further outperforms existing baselines on both Biographies and WikiQA. Experimental results also demonstrate cross-task generalization, with TruthfulQA-derived grounding enhancing biography generation. Our model-agnostic, scalable, and efficient method requires only a single generation pass, highlighting the potential of context-aware decoding for factual reliability in LLMs.

Large language models (LLMs) for table-based reasoning often struggle with large tables due to input length limits. We propose ATF (Adaptive Table Filtering Framework), a modular and question-aware filtering pipeline that prunes uninformative columns and rows using LLM-generated column descriptions, clustering, and sparse-dense alignment scores. ATF integrates seamlessly with existing models (e.g., TAPAS, TAPEX) without retraining. Experiments show that ATF reduces table cells by 70%, boosting performance on out-of-domain TableQA tasks while causing slight performance drops on Table Fact Verification, where full-table context is more critical. These results highlight ATF's ability to adaptively balance informativeness and minimalism across tasks. Our code available at: https://github.com/torijune/ATF-Adaptive-Table-Filtering-Framework