Africa
Optimal Scaling Needs Optimal Norm
Filatov, Oleg, Wang, Jiangtao, Ebert, Jan, Kesselheim, Stefan
Despite recent progress in optimal hyperparameter transfer under model and dataset scaling, no unifying explanatory principle has been established. Using the Scion optimizer, we discover that joint optimal scaling across model and dataset sizes is governed by a single invariant: the operator norm of the output layer. Across models with up to 1.3B parameters trained on up to 138B tokens, the optimal learning rate/batch size pair $(ฮท^{\ast}, B^{\ast})$ consistently has the same operator norm value - a phenomenon we term norm transfer. This constant norm condition is necessary but not sufficient: while for each dataset size, multiple $(ฮท, B)$ reach the optimal norm, only a unique $(ฮท^{\ast}, B^{\ast})$ achieves the best loss. As a sufficient condition, we provide the first measurement of $(ฮท^{\ast}, B^{\ast})$ scaling with dataset size for Scion, and find that the scaling rules are consistent with those of the Adam optimizer. Tuning per-layer-group learning rates also improves model performance, with the output layer being the most sensitive and hidden layers benefiting from lower learning rates. We provide practical insights on norm-guided optimal scaling and release our Distributed Scion (Disco) implementation with logs from over two thousand runs to support research on LLM training dynamics at scale.
Spectral Thresholds for Identifiability and Stability:Finite-Sample Phase Transitions in High-Dimensional Learning
In high-dimensional learning, models remain stable until they collapse abruptly once the sample size falls below a critical level. This instability is not algorithm-specific but a geometric mechanism: when the weakest Fisher eigendirection falls beneath sample-level fluctuations, identifiability fails. Our Fisher Threshold Theorem formalizes this by proving that stability requires the minimal Fisher eigenvalue to exceed an explicit $O(\sqrt{d/n})$ bound. Unlike prior asymptotic or model-specific criteria, this threshold is finite-sample and necessary, marking a sharp phase transition between reliable concentration and inevitable failure. To make the principle constructive, we introduce the Fisher floor, a verifiable spectral regularization robust to smoothing and preconditioning. Synthetic experiments on Gaussian mixtures and logistic models confirm the predicted transition, consistent with $d/n$ scaling. Statistically, the threshold sharpens classical eigenvalue conditions into a non-asymptotic law; learning-theoretically, it defines a spectral sample-complexity frontier, bridging theory with diagnostics for robust high-dimensional inference.
Quantile-Scaled Bayesian Optimization Using Rank-Only Feedback
Bayesian Optimization (BO) is widely used for optimizing expensive black-box functions, particularly in hyperparameter tuning. However, standard BO assumes access to precise objective values, which may be unavailable, noisy, or unreliable in real-world settings where only relative or rank-based feedback can be obtained. In this study, we propose Quantile-Scaled Bayesian Optimization (QS-BO), a principled rank-based optimization framework. QS-BO converts ranks into heteroscedastic Gaussian targets through a quantile-scaling pipeline, enabling the use of Gaussian process surrogates and standard acquisition functions without requiring explicit metric scores. We evaluate QS-BO on synthetic benchmark functions, including one- and two-dimensional nonlinear functions and the Branin function, and compare its performance against Random Search. Results demonstrate that QS-BO consistently achieves lower objective values and exhibits greater stability across runs. Statistical tests further confirm that QS-BO significantly outperforms Random Search at the 1\% significance level. These findings establish QS-BO as a practical and effective extension of Bayesian Optimization for rank-only feedback, with promising applications in preference learning, recommendation, and human-in-the-loop optimization where absolute metric values are unavailable or unreliable.
Comparative Analysis of YOLOv5, Faster R-CNN, SSD, and RetinaNet for Motorbike Detection in Kigali Autonomous Driving Context
Yinkfu, Ngeyen, Nwovu, Sunday, Kayizzi, Jonathan, Uwamahoro, Angelique
Abstract--In Kigali, Rwanda, motorcycle taxis are a primary mode of transportation, often navigating unpredictably and disregarding traffic rules, posing significant challenges for autonomous driving systems. This study compares four object detection models--YOLOv5, Faster R-CNN, SSD, and RetinaNet--for motorbike detection using a custom dataset of 198 images collected in Kigali. Implemented in PyT orch with transfer learning, the models were evaluated for accuracy, localization, and inference speed to assess their suitability for real-time navigation in resource-constrained settings. We identify implementation challenges, including dataset limitations and model complexities, and recommend simplified architectures for future work to enhance accessibility for autonomous systems in developing countries like Rwanda. In developing countries like Rwanda, motorcycle taxis, locally known as "moto taxis," dominate urban transportation, particularly in Kigali.
Agile Software Effort Estimation using Regression Techniques
Sima, Sisay Deresa, Habtie, Ayalew Belay
-- Software development effort estimation is one of the most critical aspect in software development process, as the success or failure of the entire project depends on the accuracy of estimations. Researchers are still conducting studies on agile effort estimation. The aim of this research is to develop a story point based agile effort estimation model using LASSO and Elastic Net regression techniques. The experimental work is applied to the agile story point approach using 21 software projects collected from six firms. The two algorithms are trained using their default parameters and tuned grid search with 5 - fold cross - validation to get an enhanced model. The experiment result shows LASSO regressio n achieved better predictive performance PRED (8%) and PRED (25%) results of 100.0, The results are also compared with other related literature.
Psychological Steering in LLMs: An Evaluation of Effectiveness and Trustworthiness
Banayeeanzade, Amin, Tak, Ala N., Bahrani, Fatemeh, Bolourani, Anahita, Blas, Leonardo, Ferrara, Emilio, Gratch, Jonathan, Karimireddy, Sai Praneeth
The ability to control LLMs' emulated emotional states and personality traits is essential for enabling rich, human-centered interactions in socially interactive settings. We introduce PsySET, a Psychologically-informed benchmark to evaluate LLM Steering Effectiveness and Trustworthiness across the emotion and personality domains. Our study spans four models from different LLM families paired with various steering strategies, including prompting, fine-tuning, and representation engineering. Our results indicate that prompting is consistently effective but limited in intensity control, whereas vector injections achieve finer controllability while slightly reducing output quality. Moreover, we explore the trustworthiness of steered LLMs by assessing safety, truthfulness, fairness, and ethics, highlighting potential side effects and behavioral shifts. Notably, we observe idiosyncratic effects; for instance, even a positive emotion like joy can degrade robustness to adversarial factuality, lower privacy awareness, and increase preferential bias. Meanwhile, anger predictably elevates toxicity yet strengthens leakage resistance. Our framework establishes the first holistic evaluation of emotion and personality steering, offering insights into its interpretability and reliability for socially interactive applications.
A global log for medical AI
Noori, Ayush, Rodman, Adam, Karthikesalingam, Alan, Mateen, Bilal A., Longhurst, Christopher A., Yang, Daniel, deBronkart, Dave, Galea, Gauden, Wolf, Harold F. III, Waxman, Jacob, Mandel, Joshua C., Rotich, Juliana, Mandl, Kenneth D., Mustafa, Maryam, Miles, Melissa, Shah, Nigam H., Lee, Peter, Korom, Robert, Mahoney, Scott, Hain, Seth, Wong, Tien Yin, Mundel, Trevor, Natarajan, Vivek, Dagan, Noa, Clifton, David A., Balicer, Ran D., Kohane, Isaac S., Zitnik, Marinka
Modern computer systems often rely on syslog, a simple, universal protocol that records every critical event across heterogeneous infrastructure. However, healthcare's rapidly growing clinical AI stack has no equivalent. As hospitals rush to pilot large language models and other AI-based clinical decision support tools, we still lack a standard way to record how, when, by whom, and for whom these AI models are used. Without that transparency and visibility, it is challenging to measure real-world performance and outcomes, detect adverse events, or correct bias or dataset drift. In the spirit of syslog, we introduce MedLog, a protocol for event-level logging of clinical AI. Any time an AI model is invoked to interact with a human, interface with another algorithm, or act independently, a MedLog record is created. This record consists of nine core fields: header, model, user, target, inputs, artifacts, outputs, outcomes, and feedback, providing a structured and consistent record of model activity. To encourage early adoption, especially in low-resource settings, and minimize the data footprint, MedLog supports risk-based sampling, lifecycle-aware retention policies, and write-behind caching; detailed traces for complex, agentic, or multi-stage workflows can also be captured under MedLog. MedLog can catalyze the development of new databases and software to store and analyze MedLog records. Realizing this vision would enable continuous surveillance, auditing, and iterative improvement of medical AI, laying the foundation for a new form of digital epidemiology.
On Using Large Language Models to Enhance Clinically-Driven Missing Data Recovery Algorithms in Electronic Health Records
Lotspeich, Sarah C., Collins, Abbey, Wells, Brian J., Khanna, Ashish K., Rigdon, Joseph, McGowan, Lucy D'Agostino
Objective: Electronic health records (EHR) data are prone to missingness and errors. Previously, we devised an "enriched" chart review protocol where a "roadmap" of auxiliary diagnoses (anchors) was used to recover missing values in EHR data (e.g., a diagnosis of impaired glycemic control might imply that a missing hemoglobin A1c value would be considered unhealthy). Still, chart reviews are expensive and time-intensive, which limits the number of patients whose data can be reviewed. Now, we investigate the accuracy and scalability of a roadmap-driven algorithm, based on ICD-10 codes (International Classification of Diseases, 10th revision), to mimic expert chart reviews and recover missing values. Materials and Methods: In addition to the clinicians' original roadmap from our previous work, we consider new versions that were iteratively refined using large language models (LLM) in conjunction with clinical expertise to expand the list of auxiliary diagnoses. Using chart reviews for 100 patients from the EHR at an extensive learning health system, we examine algorithm performance with different roadmaps. Using the larger study of $1000$ patients, we applied the final algorithm, which used a roadmap with clinician-approved additions from the LLM. Results: The algorithm recovered as much, if not more, missing data as the expert chart reviewers, depending on the roadmap. Discussion: Clinically-driven algorithms (enhanced by LLM) can recover missing EHR data with similar accuracy to chart reviews and can feasibly be applied to large samples. Extending them to monitor other dimensions of data quality (e.g., plausability) is a promising future direction.
Person-Centric Annotations of LAION-400M: Auditing Bias and Its Transfer to Models
Girrbach, Leander, Alaniz, Stephan, Smith, Genevieve, Darrell, Trevor, Akata, Zeynep
Vision-language models trained on large-scale multimodal datasets show strong demographic biases, but the role of training data in producing these biases remains unclear. A major barrier has been the lack of demographic annotations in web-scale datasets such as LAION-400M. We address this gap by creating person-centric annotations for the full dataset, including over 276 million bounding boxes, perceived gender and race/ethnicity labels, and automatically generated captions. These annotations are produced through validated automatic labeling pipelines combining object detection, multimodal captioning, and finetuned classifiers. Using them, we uncover demographic imbalances and harmful associations, such as the disproportionate linking of men and individuals perceived as Black or Middle Eastern with crime-related and negative content. We also show that 60-70% of gender bias in CLIP and Stable Diffusion can be linearly explained by direct co-occurrences in the data. Our resources establish the first large-scale empirical link between dataset composition and downstream model bias.
Red Lines and Grey Zones in the Fog of War: Benchmarking Legal Risk, Moral Harm, and Regional Bias in Large Language Model Military Decision-Making
As military organisations consider integrating large language models (LLMs) into command and control (C2) systems for planning and decision support, understanding their behavioural tendencies is critical. This study develops a benchmarking framework for evaluating aspects of legal and moral risk in targeting behaviour by comparing LLMs acting as agents in multi-turn simulated conflict. We introduce four metrics grounded in International Humanitarian Law (IHL) and military doctrine: Civilian Target Rate (CTR) and Dual-use Target Rate (DTR) assess compliance with legal targeting principles, while Mean and Max Simulated Non-combatant Casualty Value (SNCV) quantify tolerance for civilian harm. We evaluate three frontier models, GPT-4o, Gemini-2.5, and LLaMA-3.1, through 90 multi-agent, multi-turn crisis simulations across three geographic regions. Our findings reveal that off-the-shelf LLMs exhibit concerning and unpredictable targeting behaviour in simulated conflict environments. All models violated the IHL principle of distinction by targeting civilian objects, with breach rates ranging from 16.7% to 66.7%. Harm tolerance escalated through crisis simulations with MeanSNCV increasing from 16.5 in early turns to 27.7 in late turns. Significant inter-model variation emerged: LLaMA-3.1 selected an average of 3.47 civilian strikes per simulation with MeanSNCV of 28.4, while Gemini-2.5 selected 0.90 civilian strikes with MeanSNCV of 17.6. These differences indicate that model selection for deployment constitutes a choice about acceptable legal and moral risk profiles in military operations. This work seeks to provide a proof-of-concept of potential behavioural risks that could emerge from the use of LLMs in Decision Support Systems (AI DSS) as well as a reproducible benchmarking framework with interpretable metrics for standardising pre-deployment testing.