Africa
Conformalized Time Series with Semantic Features
Conformal prediction is a powerful tool for uncertainty qua ntification, but its application to time-series data is constrained by the violati on of the exchangeability assumption. Current solutions for time-series prediction typically operate in the output space and rely on manually selected weights to addres s distribution drift, leading to overly conservative predictions. To enable dyna mic weight learning in the semantically rich latent space, we introduce a novel a pproach called Con-formalized Time Series with Semantic Features (CT -SSF). CT -SSF utilizes the inductive bias in deep representation learning to dynamica lly adjust weights, prioritizing semantic features relevant to the current predic tion. Theoretically, we show that CT -SSF surpasses previous methods defined in the ou tput space. Experiments on synthetic and benchmark datasets demonstrate tha t CT -SSF significantly outperforms existing state-of-the-art (SOT A) conformal p rediction techniques in terms of prediction efficiency while maintaining a valid cov erage guarantee.
Unlocking the Potential of Global Human Expertise
For example, in the Pandemic Response Challenge experiment, the context consisted of data about the geographic region for which the predictions were made, e.g., historical data of COVID-19 cases and intervention policies; actions were future schedules of intervention policies for the region; and outcomes were predicted future cases of COVID-19 along with the stringency