Geographical location is vital to geospatial applications like local search and event detection. In this paper, we investigate and improve on the task of text-based geolocation prediction of Twitter users. Previous studies on this topic have typically assumed that geographical references (e.g., gazetteer terms, dialectal words) in a text are indicative of its authors location. However, these references are often buried in informal, ungrammatical, and multilingual data, and are therefore non-trivial to identify and exploit. We present an integrated geolocation prediction framework and investigate what factors impact on prediction accuracy. First, we evaluate a range of feature selection methods to obtain location indicative words. We then evaluate the impact of non-geotagged tweets, language, and user-declared metadata on geolocation prediction. In addition, we evaluate the impact of temporal variance on model generalisation, and discuss how users differ in terms of their geolocatability. We achieve state-of-the-art results for the text-based Twitter user geolocation task, and also provide the most extensive exploration of the task to date. Our findings provide valuable insights into the design of robust, practical text-based geolocation prediction systems.

Mach Learn manuscript No. (will be inserted by the editor) Abstract We present a new application and covering number bound for the framework of "Machine Learning with Operational Costs (MLOC)," which is an exploratory form of decision theory. The MLOC framework incorporates knowledge about how a predictive model will be used for a subsequent task, thus combining machine learning with the decision that is made afterwards. In this work, we use the MLOC framework to study a problem that has implications for power grid reliability and maintenance, called the Machine Learning and Traveling Repairman Problem (ML&TRP). The goal of the ML&TRP is to determine a route for a "repair crew," which repairs nodes on a graph. The repair crew aims to minimize the cost of failures at the nodes, but as in many real situations, the failure probabilities are not known and must be estimated. The MLOC framework allows us to understand how this uncertainty influences the repair route. Keywords decision theory · generalization bound · constrained linear function classes · covering numbers · traveling repairman · mixed-integer programming 1 Introduction In many domains, it is essential to understand how uncertainty in predictions influences decision-making. Funding for Theja Tulabandhula was provided by a Fulbright Fellowship and Xerox Fellowship. Cynthia Rudin's work on this project was funded in part by Con Edison, by the MIT Energy Initiative Seed Fund, and NSF grant IIS-1053407. The new framework of Machine Learning with Operational Costs (MLOC) (Tulabandhula and Rudin, 2013) provides a mechanism to do this, and is a type of exploratory decision theory. Where usual decision theories provide a single policy that minimizes expected costs, the MLOC framework is able to produce a range of reasonable policies that span the full set of reasonable costs. To do this, the operational cost becomes a regularization term within the machine learning model, and adjusting the regularization constant allows us to explore solutions for all reasonable costs. This gives decision makers a way to understand the uncertainty in their predictive model in terms of something they can grasp - uncertainty in the cost to solve the problem. The MLOC framework can also be used in another way, namely to incorporate prior knowledge about the cost to produce a better predictive model.

Unsupervised ranking faces one critical challenge in evaluation applications, that is, no ground truth is available. When PageRank and its variants show a good solution in related subjects, they are applicable only for ranking from link-structure data. In this work, we focus on unsupervised ranking from multi-attribute data which is also common in evaluation tasks. To overcome the challenge, we propose five essential meta-rules for the design and assessment of unsupervised ranking approaches: scale and translation invariance, strict monotonicity, linear/nonlinear capacities, smoothness, and explicitness of parameter size. These meta-rules are regarded as high level knowledge for unsupervised ranking tasks. Inspired by the works in [8] and [14], we propose a ranking principal curve (RPC) model, which learns a one-dimensional manifold function to perform unsupervised ranking tasks on multi-attribute observations. Furthermore, the RPC is modeled to be a cubic B\'ezier curve with control points restricted in the interior of a hypercube, thereby complying with all the five meta-rules to infer a reasonable ranking list. With control points as the model parameters, one is able to understand the learned manifold and to interpret the ranking list semantically. Numerical experiments of the presented RPC model are conducted on two open datasets of different ranking applications. In comparison with the state-of-the-art approaches, the new model is able to show more reasonable ranking lists.

The Laplace approximation calls for the computation of second derivatives at the likelihood maximum. When the maximum is found by the EM algorithm, there is a convenient way to compute these derivatives. The likelihood gradient can be obtained from the EMauxiliary, while the Hessian can be obtained from this gradient with the Pearlmutter trick. Let X denote the observed data, H some hidden variables and Θ the model parameters. P (X, Θ) P (X, H, Θ) dH (2) has a more complex form.

Distributional semantic models derive computational representations of word meaning from the patterns of co-occurrence of words in text. Such models have been a success story of computational linguistics, being able to provide reliable estimates of semantic relatedness for the many semantic tasks requiring them. However, distributional models extract meaning information exclusively from text, which is an extremely impoverished basis compared to the rich perceptual sources that ground human semantic knowledge. We address the lack of perceptual grounding of distributional models by exploiting computer vision techniques that automatically identify discrete visual words in images, so that the distributional representation of a word can be extended to also encompass its co-occurrence with the visual words of images it is associated with. We propose a flexible architecture to integrate text- and image-based distributional information, and we show in a set of empirical tests that our integrated model is superior to the purely text-based approach, and it provides somewhat complementary semantic information with respect to the latter.

The need for efficient monitoring of spatio-temporal dynamics in large environmental applications, such as the water quality monitoring in rivers and lakes, motivates the use of robotic sensors in order to achieve sufficient spatial coverage. Typically, these robots have bounded resources, such as limited battery or limited amounts of time to obtain measurements. Thus, careful coordination of their paths is required in order to maximize the amount of information collected, while respecting the resource constraints. In this paper, we present an efficient approach for near-optimally solving the NP-hard optimization problem of planning such informative paths. In particular, we first develop eSIP (efficient Single-robot Informative Path planning), an approximation algorithm for optimizing the path of a single robot. Hereby, we use a Gaussian Process to model the underlying phenomenon, and use the mutual information between the visited locations and remainder of the space to quantify the amount of information collected. We prove that the mutual information collected using paths obtained by using eSIP is close to the information obtained by an optimal solution. We then provide a general technique, sequential allocation, which can be used to extend any single robot planning algorithm, such as eSIP, for the multi-robot problem. This procedure approximately generalizes any guarantees for the single-robot problem to the multi-robot case. We extensively evaluate the effectiveness of our approach on several experiments performed in-field for two important environmental sensing applications, lake and river monitoring, and simulation experiments performed using several real world sensor network data sets.

Recent work on learning multilingual word representations usually relies on the use of word-level alignements (e.g. infered with the help of GIZA++) between translated sentences, in order to align the word embeddings in different languages. In this workshop paper, we investigate an autoencoder model for learning multilingual word representations that does without such word-level alignements. The autoencoder is trained to reconstruct the bag-of-word representation of given sentence from an encoded representation extracted from its translation. We evaluate our approach on a multilingual document classification task, where labeled data is available only for one language (e.g. English) while classification must be performed in a different language (e.g. French). In our experiments, we observe that our method compares favorably with a previously proposed method that exploits word-level alignments to learn word representations.

An accurate prediction of crude oil prices over long future horizons is challenging and of great interest to governments, enterprises, and investors. This paper proposes a revised hybrid model built upon empirical mode decomposition (EMD) based on the feed-forward neural network (FNN) modeling framework incorporating the slope-based method (SBM), which is capable of capturing the complex dynamic of crude oil prices. Three commonly used multi-step-ahead prediction strategies proposed in the literature, including iterated strategy, direct strategy, and MIMO (multiple-input multiple-output) strategy, are examined and compared, and practical considerations for the selection of a prediction strategy for multi-step-ahead forecasting relating to crude oil prices are identified. The weekly data from the WTI (West Texas Intermediate) crude oil spot price are used to compare the performance of the alternative models under the EMD-SBM-FNN modeling framework with selected counterparts. The quantitative and comprehensive assessments are performed on the basis of prediction accuracy and computational cost. The results obtained in this study indicate that the proposed EMD-SBM-FNN model using the MIMO strategy is the best in terms of prediction accuracy with accredited computational load.

We propose a new method for detecting changes in Markov network structure between two sets of samples. Instead of naively fitting two Markov network models separately to the two data sets and figuring out their difference, we \emph{directly} learn the network structure change by estimating the ratio of Markov network models. This density-ratio formulation naturally allows us to introduce sparsity in the network structure change, which highly contributes to enhancing interpretability. Furthermore, computation of the normalization term, which is a critical bottleneck of the naive approach, can be remarkably mitigated. We also give the dual formulation of the optimization problem, which further reduces the computation cost for large-scale Markov networks. Through experiments, we demonstrate the usefulness of our method.

Tensor completion from incomplete observations is a problem of significant practical interest. However, it is unlikely that there exists an efficient algorithm with provable guarantee to recover a general tensor from a limited number of observations. In this paper, we study the recovery algorithm for pairwise interaction tensors, which has recently gained considerable attention for modeling multiple attribute data due to its simplicity and effectiveness. Specifically, in the absence of noise, we show that one can exactly recover a pairwise interaction tensor by solving a constrained convex program which minimizes the weighted sum of nuclear norms of matrices from $O(nr\log^2(n))$ observations. For the noisy cases, we also prove error bounds for a constrained convex program for recovering the tensors. Our experiments on the synthetic dataset demonstrate that the recovery performance of our algorithm agrees well with the theory. In addition, we apply our algorithm on a temporal collaborative filtering task and obtain state-of-the-art results.