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Modelling and simulation of complex systems: an approach based on multi-level agents

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

A complex system is made up of many components with many interactions. So the design of systems such as simulation systems, cooperative systems or assistance systems includes a very accurate modelling of interactional and communicational levels. The agent-based approach provides an adapted abstraction level for this problem. After having studied the organizational context and communicative capacities of agentbased systems, to simulate the reorganization of a flexible manufacturing, to regulate an urban transport system, and to simulate an epidemic detection system, our thoughts on the interactional level were inspired by human-machine interface models, especially those in "cognitive engineering". To provide a general framework for agent-based complex systems modelling, we then proposed a scale of four behaviours that agents may adopt in their complex systems (reactive, routine, cognitive, and collective). To complete the description of multi-level agent models, which is the focus of this paper, we illustrate our modelling and discuss our ongoing work on each level.


Im2Text: Describing Images Using 1 Million Captioned Photographs

Neural Information Processing Systems

We develop and demonstrate automatic image description methods using a large captioned photo collection. One contribution is our technique for the automatic collection of this new dataset -- performing a huge number of Flickr queries and then filtering the noisy results down to 1 million images with associated visually relevant captions. Such a collection allows us to approach the extremely challenging problem of description generation using relatively simple non-parametric methods and produces surprisingly effective results. We also develop methods incorporating many state of the art, but fairly noisy, estimates of image content to produce even more pleasing results. Finally we introduce a new objective performance measure for image captioning.


3D Model Retrieval Based on Semantic and Shape Indexes

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The size of 3D models used on the web or stored in databases is becoming increasingly high. Then, an efficient method that allows users to find similar 3D objects for a given 3D model query has become necessary. Keywords and the geometry of a 3D model cannot meet the needs of users' retrieval because they do not include the semantic information. In this paper, a new method has been proposed to 3D models retrieval using semantic concepts combined with shape indexes. To obtain these concepts, we use the machine learning methods to label 3D models by k-means algorithm in measures and shape indexes space. Moreover, semantic concepts have been organized and represented by ontology language OWL and spatial relationships are used to disambiguate among models of similar appearance. The SPARQL query language has been used to question the information displayed in this language and to compute the similarity between two 3D models. We interpret our results using the Princeton Shape Benchmark Database and the results show the performance of the proposed new approach to retrieval 3D models. Keywords: 3D Model, 3D retrieval, measures, shape indexes, semantic, ontology


mSafety: An ABM of Community Information-Sharing to Improve Public Safety

AAAI Conferences

Millions of people globally have been forcibly displaced from their homes due to reasons beyond their control such as conflict, political upheaval, and environmental catastrophes. In many cases, these forced migrants seek temporary refuge in camps managed by nongovernmental organizations (NGOs). Although responsibility for refugees’ well-being within camps belongs mainly to the NGOs and host government, the density of the camp population and lack of resources of service providers leads to a high degree of insecurity. Building off successful models of mHealth, or utilizing mobile technologies to address healthcare needs, this paper explores the possibility of using communication technologies to address personal security issues. Using agent based modeling techniques, this paper examines the ways in which information about incidents of violence are communicated through a closed population. In this way, the authors advocate for the use of mobile phones in an mSecurity context that empowers forced migrants to become active members in reducing incidents of violence within refugee and internally displaced persons camps.


Applying Fuzzy ID3 Decision Tree for Software Effort Estimation

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Web Effort Estimation is a process of predicting the efforts and cost in terms of money, schedule and staff for any software project system. Many estimation models have been proposed over the last three decades and it is believed that it is a must for the purpose of: Budgeting, risk analysis, project planning and control, and project improvement investment analysis. In this paper, we investigate the use of Fuzzy ID3 decision tree for software cost estimation; it is designed by integrating the principles of ID3 decision tree and the fuzzy set-theoretic concepts, enabling the model to handle uncertain and imprecise data when describing the software projects, which can improve greatly the accuracy of obtained estimates. MMRE and Pred are used as measures of prediction accuracy for this study. A series of experiments is reported using two different software projects datasets namely, Tukutuku and COCOMO'81 datasets. The results are compared with those produced by the crisp version of the ID3 decision tree.


Scheduling Bipartite Tournaments to Minimize Total Travel Distance

Journal of Artificial Intelligence Research

In many professional sports leagues, teams from opposing leagues/conferences compete against one another, playing inter-league games. This is an example of a bipartite tournament. In this paper, we consider the problem of reducing the total travel distance of bipartite tournaments, by analyzing inter-league scheduling from the perspective of discrete optimization. This research has natural applications to sports scheduling, especially for leagues such as the National Basketball Association (NBA) where teams must travel long distances across North America to play all their games, thus consuming much time, money, and greenhouse gas emissions. We introduce the Bipartite Traveling Tournament Problem (BTTP), the inter-league variant of the well-studied Traveling Tournament Problem. We prove that the 2n-team BTTP is NP-complete, but for small values of n, a distance-optimal inter-league schedule can be generated from an algorithm based on minimum-weight 4-cycle-covers. We apply our theoretical results to the 12-team Nippon Professional Baseball (NPB) league in Japan, producing a provably-optimal schedule requiring 42950 kilometres of total team travel, a 16% reduction compared to the actual distance traveled by these teams during the 2010 NPB season. We also develop a nearly-optimal inter-league tournament for the 30-team NBA league, just 3.8% higher than the trivial theoretical lower bound.


MAPP: a Scalable Multi-Agent Path Planning Algorithm with Tractability and Completeness Guarantees

Journal of Artificial Intelligence Research

Multi-agent path planning is a challenging problem with numerous real-life applications. Running a centralized search such as A* in the combined state space of all units is complete and cost-optimal, but scales poorly, as the state space size is exponential in the number of mobile units. Traditional decentralized approaches, such as FAR and WHCA*, are faster and more scalable, being based on problem decomposition. However, such methods are incomplete and provide no guarantees with respect to the running time or the solution quality. They are not necessarily able to tell in a reasonable time whether they would succeed in finding a solution to a given instance. We introduce MAPP, a tractable algorithm for multi-agent path planning on undirected graphs. We present a basic version and several extensions. They have low-polynomial worst-case upper bounds for the running time, the memory requirements, and the length of solutions. Even though all algorithmic versions are incomplete in the general case, each provides formal guarantees on problems it can solve. For each version, we discuss the algorithm's completeness with respect to clearly defined subclasses of instances. Experiments were run on realistic game grid maps. MAPP solved 99.86% of all mobile units, which is 18--22% better than the percentage of FAR and WHCA*. MAPP marked 98.82% of all units as provably solvable during the first stage of plan computation. Parts of MAPP's computation can be re-used across instances on the same map. Speed-wise, MAPP is competitive or significantly faster than WHCA*, depending on whether MAPP performs all computations from scratch. When data that MAPP can re-use are preprocessed offline and readily available, MAPP is slower than the very fast FAR algorithm by a factor of 2.18 on average. MAPP's solutions are on average 20% longer than FAR's solutions and 7--31% longer than WHCA*'s solutions.


On the Link between Partial Meet, Kernel, and Infra Contraction and its Application to Horn Logic

Journal of Artificial Intelligence Research

Standard belief change assumes an underlying logic containing full classical propositional logic. However, there are good reasons for considering belief change in less expressive logics as well. In this paper we build on recent investigations by Delgrande on contraction for Horn logic. We show that the standard basic form of contraction, partial meet, is too strong in the Horn case. This result stands in contrast to Delgrandes conjecture that orderly maxichoice is the appropriate form of contraction for Horn logic. We then define a more appropriate notion of basic contraction for the Horn case, influenced by the convexity property holding for full propositional logic and which we refer to as infra contraction. The main contribution of this work is a result which shows that the construction method for Horn contraction for belief sets based on our infra remainder sets corresponds exactly to Hanssons classical kernel contraction for belief sets, when restricted to Horn logic. This result is obtained via a detour through contraction for belief bases. We prove that kernel contraction for belief bases produces precisely the same results as the belief base version of infra contraction. The use of belief bases to obtain this result provides evidence for the conjecture that Horn belief change is best viewed as a 'hybrid' version of belief set change and belief base change. One of the consequences of the link with base contraction is the provision of a representation result for Horn contraction for belief sets in which a version of the Core-retainment postulate features.


Nonlinear Channel Estimation for OFDM System by Complex LS-SVM under High Mobility Conditions

arXiv.org Machine Learning

A nonlinear channel estimator using complex Least Square Support Vector Machines (LS-SVM) is proposed for pilot-aided OFDM system and applied to Long Term Evolution (LTE) downlink under high mobility conditions. The estimation algorithm makes use of the reference signals to estimate the total frequency response of the highly selective multipath channel in the presence of non-Gaussian impulse noise interfering with pilot signals. Thus, the algorithm maps trained data into a high dimensional feature space and uses the structural risk minimization (SRM) principle to carry out the regression estimation for the frequency response function of the highly selective channel. The simulations show the effectiveness of the proposed method which has good performance and high precision to track the variations of the fading channels compared to the conventional LS method and it is robust at high speed mobility.


A review and comparison of strategies for multi-step ahead time series forecasting based on the NN5 forecasting competition

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Multi-step ahead forecasting is still an open challenge in time series forecasting. Several approaches that deal with this complex problem have been proposed in the literature but an extensive comparison on a large number of tasks is still missing. This paper aims to fill this gap by reviewing existing strategies for multi-step ahead forecasting and comparing them in theoretical and practical terms. To attain such an objective, we performed a large scale comparison of these different strategies using a large experimental benchmark (namely the 111 series from the NN5 forecasting competition). In addition, we considered the effects of deseasonalization, input variable selection, and forecast combination on these strategies and on multi-step ahead forecasting at large. The following three findings appear to be consistently supported by the experimental results: Multiple-Output strategies are the best performing approaches, deseasonalization leads to uniformly improved forecast accuracy, and input selection is more effective when performed in conjunction with deseasonalization.