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Explainable Subgraphs with Surprising Densities: A Subgroup Discovery Approach

arXiv.org Machine Learning

The connectivity structure of graphs is typically related to the attributes of the nodes. In social networks for example, the probability of a friendship between two people depends on their attributes, such as their age, address, and hobbies. The connectivity of a graph can thus possibly be understood in terms of patterns of the form 'the subgroup of individuals with properties X are often (or rarely) friends with individuals in another subgroup with properties Y'. Such rules present potentially actionable and generalizable insights into the graph. We present a method that finds pairs of node subgroups between which the edge density is interestingly high or low, using an information-theoretic definition of interestingness. This interestingness is quantified subjectively, to contrast with prior information an analyst may have about the graph. This view immediately enables iterative mining of such patterns. Our work generalizes prior work on dense subgraph mining (i.e. subgraphs induced by a single subgroup). Moreover, not only is the proposed method more general, we also demonstrate considerable practical advantages for the single subgroup special case.


Should Artificial Intelligence Governance be Centralised? Design Lessons from History

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Can effective international governance for artificial intelligence remain fragmented, or is there a need for a centralised international organisation for AI? We draw on the history of other international regimes to identify advantages and disadvantages in centralising AI governance. Some considerations, such as efficiency and political power, speak in favour of centralisation. Conversely, the risk of creating a slow and brittle institution speaks against it, as does the difficulty in securing participation while creating stringent rules. Other considerations depend on the specific design of a centralised institution. A well-designed body may be able to deter forum shopping and ensure policy coordination. However, forum shopping can be beneficial and a fragmented landscape of institutions can be self-organising. Centralisation entails trade-offs and the details matter. We conclude with two core recommendations. First, the outcome will depend on the exact design of a central institution. A well-designed centralised regime covering a set of coherent issues could be beneficial. But locking-in an inadequate structure may pose a fate worse than fragmentation. Second, for now fragmentation will likely persist. This should be closely monitored to see if it is self-organising or simply inadequate.



Trump pulls back from war with Iran

The Japan Times

In a televised address to the nation from the White House, Trump emphasized there were "no Americans harmed" in the ballistic missile salvo aimed at two bases on Wednesday. While he promised to immediately impose "punishing" new economic sanctions on Tehran, Trump welcomed signs the Islamic republic "appears to be standing down" in the tit-for-tat confrontation. The comments cooled what threatened to become an uncontrolled boiling over of tensions after Trump ordered the killing last Friday of a top Iranian general, Qassem Soleimani. The president, facing both an impeachment trial in Congress and a tough re-election in November, defended his targeting of a man seen by many as Iran's second-most-influential official. Soleimani, a national hero at home, was "the world's top terrorist" and "should have been terminated long ago," Trump said.


Is seeing still believing? The deepfake challenge to truth in politics

#artificialintelligence

On Nov. 25, an article headlined "Spot the deepfake. The editors would not have placed this piece on the front page a year ago. If they had, few would have understood what its headline meant. This technology, one of the most worrying fruits of rapid advances in artificial intelligence (AI), allows those who wield it to create audio and video representations of real people saying and doing made-up things. As this technology develops, it becomes increasingly difficult to distinguish real audio and video recordings from fraudulent misrepresentations created by manipulating real sounds and images. "In the short term, detection will be reasonably effective," says Subbarao Kambhampati, a professor of computer science at Arizona State University. "In the longer run, I think it will be impossible to distinguish between the real pictures and the fake pictures."2 The longer run may come as early as later this year, in time for the presidential election.


Supporting supervised learning in fungal Biosynthetic Gene Cluster discovery: new benchmark datasets

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Fungal Biosynthetic Gene Clusters (BGCs) of secondary metabolites are clusters of genes capable of producing natural products, compounds that play an important role in the production of a wide variety of bioactive compounds, including antibiotics and pharmaceuticals. Identifying BGCs can lead to the discovery of novel natural products to benefit human health. Previous work has been focused on developing automatic tools to support BGC discovery in plants, fungi, and bacteria. Data-driven methods, as well as probabilistic and supervised learning methods have been explored in identifying BGCs. Most methods applied to identify fungal BGCs were data-driven and presented limited scope. Supervised learning methods have been shown to perform well at identifying BGCs in bacteria, and could be well suited to perform the same task in fungi. But labeled data instances are needed to perform supervised learning. Openly accessible BGC databases contain only a very small portion of previously curated fungal BGCs. Making new fungal BGC datasets available could motivate the development of supervised learning methods for fungal BGCs and potentially improve prediction performance compared to data-driven methods. In this work we propose new publicly available fungal BGC datasets to support the BGC discovery task using supervised learning. These datasets are prepared to perform binary classification and predict candidate BGC regions in fungal genomes. In addition we analyse the performance of a well supported supervised learning tool developed to predict BGCs.


Understanding the Limitations of Network Online Learning

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Studies of networked phenomena, such as interactions in online social media, often rely on incomplete data, either because these phenomena are partially observed, or because the data is too large or expensive to acquire all at once. Analysis of incomplete data leads to skewed or misleading results. In this paper, we investigate limitations of learning to complete partially observed networks via node querying. Concretely, we study the following problem: given (i) a partially observed network, (ii) the ability to query nodes for their connections (e.g., by accessing an API), and (iii) a budget on the number of such queries, sequentially learn which nodes to query in order to maximally increase observability. We call this querying process Network Online Learning and present a family of algorithms called NOL*. These algorithms learn to choose which partially observed node to query next based on a parameterized model that is trained online through a process of exploration and exploitation. Extensive experiments on both synthetic and real world networks show that (i) it is possible to sequentially learn to choose which nodes are best to query in a network and (ii) some macroscopic properties of networks, such as the degree distribution and modular structure, impact the potential for learning and the optimal amount of random exploration.


Modeling Climate Change Impact on Wind Power Resources Using Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Climate change impacts and adaptations are the subjects to ongoing issues that attract the attention of many researchers. Insight into the wind power potential in an area and its probable variation due to climate change impacts can provide useful information for energy policymakers and strategists for sustainable development and management of the energy. In this study, spatial variation of wind power density at the turbine hub-height and its variability under future climatic scenarios are taken under consideration. An ANFIS based post-processing technique was employed to match the power outputs of the regional climate model with those obtained from the reference data. The near-surface wind data obtained from a regional climate model are employed to investigate climate change impacts on the wind power resources in the Caspian Sea. Subsequent to converting near-surface wind speed to turbine hub-height speed and computation of wind power density, the results have been investigated to reveal mean annual power, seasonal, and monthly variability for a 20-year period in the present (1981-2000) and in the future (2081-2100). The findings of this study indicated that the middle and northern parts of the Caspian Sea are placed with the highest values of wind power. However, the results of the post-processing technique using adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) model showed that the real potential of the wind power in the area is lower than those of projected from the regional climate model.


Debate Dynamics for Human-comprehensible Fact-checking on Knowledge Graphs

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

We propose a novel method for fact-checking on knowledge graphs based on debate dynamics. The underlying idea is to frame the task of triple classification as a debate game between two reinforcement learning agents which extract arguments -- paths in the knowledge graph -- with the goal to justify the fact being true (thesis) or the fact being false (antithesis), respectively. Based on these arguments, a binary classifier, referred to as the judge, decides whether the fact is true or false. The two agents can be considered as sparse feature extractors that present interpretable evidence for either the thesis or the antithesis. In contrast to black-box methods, the arguments enable the user to gain an understanding for the decision of the judge. Moreover, our method allows for interactive reasoning on knowledge graphs where the users can raise additional arguments or evaluate the debate taking common sense reasoning and external information into account. Such interactive systems can increase the acceptance of various AI applications based on knowledge graphs and can further lead to higher efficiency, robustness, and fairness.


Japanese firm unveils a smartphone at CES with a AI-powered triple rear camera for just $115

Daily Mail - Science & tech

Alcatel 3L may feature similar technology found in the leading smartphones, but it can be purchased for a sixth of the price. The handset, developed by TCL Communications, debuted at CES in Las Vegas with a price tag of $155 and includes an AI-powered triple rear cameras setup. The system includes a 48-megapixel sensor, a 12-megapixel and a 5-megapixel for ultra wide shots. The Alcatel 3L will be released in'select markets across Europe, Asia, Africa and the Middle East in the beginning of this year, reports CNET. Alcatel 3L may features similar technology found in the leading smartphones, but it can be purchased for a sixth of the price.