Brain processes occur at various timescales, ranging from milliseconds (neurons) to minutes and hours (behavior). Characterizing functional coupling among brain regions at these diverse timescales is key to understanding how the brain produces behavior. Here, we apply instantaneous and lag-based measures of conditional linear dependence, based on Granger-Geweke causality (GC), to infer network connections at distinct timescales from functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) data. Due to the slow sampling rate of fMRI, it is widely held that GC produces spurious and unreliable estimates of functional connectivity when applied to fMRI data. We challenge this claim with simulations and a novel machine learning approach. First, we show, with simulated fMRI data, that instantaneous and lag-based GC identify distinct timescales and complementary patterns of functional connectivity. Next, we analyze fMRI scans from 500 subjects and show that a linear classifier trained on either instantaneous or lag-based GC connectivity reliably distinguishes task versus rest brain states, with ~80-85% cross-validation accuracy. Importantly, instantaneous and lag-based GC exploit markedly different spatial and temporal patterns of connectivity to achieve robust classification. Our approach enables identifying functionally connected networks that operate at distinct timescales in the brain.

Missing records are a perennial problem in analysis of complex data of all types, when the target of inference is some function of the full data law. In simple cases, where data is missing at random or completely at random (Rubin, 1976), well-known adjustments exist that result in consistent estimators of target quantities. Assumptions underlying these estimators are generally not realistic in practical missing data problems. Unfortunately, consistent estimators in more complex cases where data is missing not at random, and where no ordering on variables induces monotonicity of missingness status are not known in general, with some notable exceptions (Robins, 1997), (Tchetgen Tchetgen et al, 2016), (Sadinle and Reiter, 2016). In this paper, we propose a general class of consistent estimators for cases where data is missing not at random, and missingness status is non-monotonic. Our estimators, which are generalized inverse probability weighting estimators, make no assumptions on the underlying full data law, but instead place independence restrictions, and certain other fairly mild assumptions, on the distribution of missingness status conditional on the data. The assumptions we place on the distribution of missingness status conditional on the data can be viewed as a version of a conditional Markov random field (MRF) corresponding to a chain graph. Assumptions embedded in our model permit identification from the observed data law, and admit a natural fitting procedure based on the pseudo likelihood approach of (Besag, 1975). We illustrate our approach with a simple simulation study, and an analysis of risk of premature birth in women in Botswana exposed to highly active anti-retroviral therapy.

Neural Information Processing Systems http://nips.cc/

Plus: Google's new image generator has extremely loose guardrails We're learning more about what vitamin D does to our bodies At a checkup a few years ago, a doctor told me I was deficient in vitamin D. But he wouldn't write me a prescription for supplements, simply because, as he put it, everyone in the UK is deficient. Putting the entire population on vitamin D supplements would be too expensive for the country's national health service, he told me. But supplementation--whether covered by a health-care provider or not--can be important. As those of us living in the Northern Hemisphere spend fewer of our waking hours in sunlight, let's consider the importance of vitamin D. Read the full story . This article first appeared in The Checkup, MIT Technology Review's weekly biotech newsletter. Here's why we don't have a cold vaccine.

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