This article is an introductory work towards a larger research framework relative to Scientific Prediction. It is a mixed between science and philosophy of science, therefore we can talk about Experimental Philosophy of Science. As a first result, we introduce a new forecasting method based on image completion, named Forecasting Method by Image Inpainting (FM2I). In fact, time series forecasting is transformed into fully images- and signal-based processing procedures. After transforming a time series data into its corresponding image, the problem of data forecasting becomes essentially a problem of image inpainting problem, i.e., completing missing data in the image. An extensive experimental evaluation is conducted using a large dataset proposed by the well-known M3-competition. Results show that FM2I represents an efficient and robust tool for time series forecasting. It has achieved prominent results in terms of accuracy and outperforms the best M3 forecasting methods.

We present the results and findings of the First Nuanced Arabic Dialect Identification Shared Task (NADI). This Shared Task includes two subtasks: country-level dialect identification (Subtask 1) and province-level sub-dialect identification (Subtask 2). The data for the shared task covers a total of 100 provinces from 21 Arab countries and are collected from the Twitter domain. As such, NADI is the first shared task to target naturally-occurring fine-grained dialectal text at the sub-country level. A total of 61 teams from 25 countries registered to participate in the tasks, thus reflecting the interest of the community in this area. We received 47 submissions for Subtask 1 from 18 teams and 9 submissions for Subtask 2 from 9 teams.

Explaining the predictions of neural black-box models is an important problem, especially when such models are used in applications where user trust is crucial. Estimating the influence of training examples on a learned neural model's behavior allows us to identify training examples most responsible for a given prediction and, therefore, to faithfully explain the output of a black-box model. The most generally applicable existing method is based on influence functions, which scale poorly for larger sample sizes and models. We propose gradient rollback, a general approach for influence estimation, applicable to neural models where each parameter update step during gradient descent touches a smaller number of parameters, even if the overall number of parameters is large. Neural matrix factorization models trained with gradient descent are part of this model class. These models are popular and have found a wide range of applications in industry. Especially knowledge graph embedding methods, which belong to this class, are used extensively. We show that gradient rollback is highly efficient at both training and test time. Moreover, we show theoretically that the difference between gradient rollback's influence approximation and the true influence on a model's behavior is smaller than known bounds on the stability of stochastic gradient descent. This establishes that gradient rollback is robustly estimating example influence. We also conduct experiments which show that gradient rollback provides faithful explanations for knowledge base completion and recommender datasets.

Graphs are data structures that are useful to represent ubiquitous phenomena, such as social networks, chemical molecules and recommendation systems. One of their strengths lies in the fact that they explicitly model relations (i.e. We can illustrate the added value of this data enrichment using the Cora citation network. This dataset contains a bag-of-words representation for a few hundred papers and the citation relations between each of these papers. If we apply dimensionality reduction (t-SNE) to create a 2D plot of the bag-of-words representations (Figure 1, left), we can see clusters (they are colored according to their research topic) arise but they overlap.

Pope Francis has urged Catholics to pray that artificial intelligence (AI) does not rebel against humankind. The pontiff, who made the appeal in his prayer intention for November, warned against rising inequality that could result from advanced robotics, and instead called for AI to work for everyone. "Artificial intelligence is at the heart of the epochal change we are experiencing," Francis said. "Robotics can make a better world possible if it is joined to the common good. "Indeed, if technological progress increases inequalities, it is not true progress.

Min-max optimization of an objective function $f: \mathbb{R}^d \times \mathbb{R}^d \rightarrow \mathbb{R}$ is an important model for robustness in an adversarial setting, with applications to many areas including optimization, economics, and deep learning. In many of these applications $f$ may be nonconvex-nonconcave, and finding a global min-max point may be computationally intractable. There is a long line of work that seeks computationally tractable algorithms for alternatives to the min-max optimization model. However, many of the alternative models have solution points which are only guaranteed to exist under strong assumptions on $f$, such as convexity, monotonicity, or special properties of the starting point. In this paper, we propose an optimization model, the $\varepsilon$-greedy adversarial equilibrium, which can serve as a computationally tractable alternative to the min-max optimization model. Roughly, we say a point $(x^\star, y^\star)$ is an $\varepsilon$-greedy adversarial equilibrium if $y^\star$ is an $\varepsilon$-approximate local maximum for $f(x^\star,\cdot)$, and $x^\star$ is an $\varepsilon$-approximate local minimum for a "greedy approximation" to the function $\max_z f(x, z)$ which can be efficiently estimated using second-order optimization algorithms. The existence follows from an algorithm that converges from any starting point to such a point in a number of evaluations to $f$, $\nabla_{y} f(x,y)$, and $\nabla^2_y f(x,y)$, that is polynomial in $1/\varepsilon$, the dimension $d$, and the bounds on $f$ and its Lipschitz constant. In addition to existence, our model retains many desirable properties of the min-max model. For instance, it empowers the min-player to make updates that take into account the max-player's response, and in the case of strong convexity/concavity it corresponds to a global min-max solution with duality gap $O(\epsilon^2)$.

We explore end-to-end trained differentiable models that integrate natural logic with neural networks, aiming to keep the backbone of natural language reasoning based on the natural logic formalism while introducing subsymbolic vector representations and neural components. The proposed model adapts module networks to model natural logic operations, which is enhanced with a memory component to model contextual information. Experiments show that the proposed framework can effectively model monotonicity-based reasoning, compared to the baseline neural network models without built-in inductive bias for monotonicity-based reasoning. Our proposed model shows to be robust when transferred from upward to downward inference. We perform further analyses on the performance of the proposed model on aggregation, showing the effectiveness of the proposed subcomponents on helping achieve better intermediate aggregation performance.

Analytic software tools and workflows are increasing in capability, complexity, number, and scale, and the integrity of our workflows is as important as ever. Specifically, we must be able to inspect the process of analytic workflows to assess (1) confidence of the conclusions, (2) risks and biases of the operations involved, (3) sensitivity of the conclusions to sources and agents, (4) impact and pertinence of various sources and agents, and (5) diversity of the sources that support the conclusions. We present an approach that tracks agents' provenance with PROV-O in conjunction with agents' appraisals and evidence links (expressed in our novel DIVE ontology). Together, PROV-O and DIVE enable dynamic propagation of confidence and counter-factual refutation to improve human-machine trust and analytic integrity. We demonstrate representative software developed for user interaction with that provenance, and discuss key needs for organizations adopting such approaches. We demonstrate all of these assessments in a multi-agent analysis scenario, using an interactive web-based information validation UI.

Human use language not just to convey information but also to express their inner feelings and mental states. In this work, we adapt the state-of-the-art language generation models to generate affective (emotional) text. We posit a model capable of generating affect-driven and topic focused sentences without losing grammatical correctness as the affect intensity increases. We propose to incorporate emotion as prior for the probabilistic state-of-the-art text generation model such as GPT-2. The model gives a user the flexibility to control the category and intensity of emotion as well as the topic of the generated text. Previous attempts at modelling fine-grained emotions fall out on grammatical correctness at extreme intensities, but our model is resilient to this and delivers robust results at all intensities. We conduct automated evaluations and human studies to test the performance of our model, and provide a detailed comparison of the results with other models. In all evaluations, our model outperforms existing affective text generation models.

There has recently been increasing interest in learning representations of temporal knowledge graphs (KGs), which record the dynamic relationships between entities over time. Temporal KGs often exhibit multiple simultaneous non-Euclidean structures, such as hierarchical and cyclic structures. However, existing embedding approaches for temporal KGs typically learn entity representations and their dynamic evolution in the Euclidean space, which might not capture such intrinsic structures very well. To this end, we propose Dy- ERNIE, a non-Euclidean embedding approach that learns evolving entity representations in a product of Riemannian manifolds, where the composed spaces are estimated from the sectional curvatures of underlying data. Product manifolds enable our approach to better reflect a wide variety of geometric structures on temporal KGs. Besides, to capture the evolutionary dynamics of temporal KGs, we let the entity representations evolve according to a velocity vector defined in the tangent space at each timestamp. We analyze in detail the contribution of geometric spaces to representation learning of temporal KGs and evaluate our model on temporal knowledge graph completion tasks. Extensive experiments on three real-world datasets demonstrate significantly improved performance, indicating that the dynamics of multi-relational graph data can be more properly modeled by the evolution of embeddings on Riemannian manifolds.