Multi-label classification tasks such as OCR and multi-object recognition are a major focus of the growing machine learning as a service industry. While many multi-label prediction APIs are available, it is challenging for users to decide which API to use for their own data and budget, due to the heterogeneity in those APIs' price and performance. Recent work shows how to select from single-label prediction APIs. However the computation complexity of the previous approach is exponential in the number of labels and hence is not suitable for settings like OCR. In this work, we propose FrugalMCT, a principled framework that adaptively selects the APIs to use for different data in an online fashion while respecting user's budget. The API selection problem is cast as an integer linear program, which we show has a special structure that we leverage to develop an efficient online API selector with strong performance guarantees. We conduct systematic experiments using ML APIs from Google, Microsoft, Amazon, IBM, Tencent and other providers for tasks including multi-label image classification, scene text recognition and named entity recognition. Across diverse tasks, FrugalMCT can achieve over 90% cost reduction while matching the accuracy of the best single API, or up to 8% better accuracy while matching the best API's cost.

Unsupervised Domain adaptation methods solve the adaptation problem for an unlabeled target set, assuming that the source dataset is available with all labels. However, the availability of actual source samples is not always possible in practical cases. It could be due to memory constraints, privacy concerns, and challenges in sharing data. This practical scenario creates a bottleneck in the domain adaptation problem. This paper addresses this challenging scenario by proposing a domain adaptation technique that does not need any source data. Instead of the source data, we are only provided with a classifier that is trained on the source data. Our proposed approach is based on a generative framework, where the trained classifier is used for generating samples from the source classes. We learn the joint distribution of data by using the energy-based modeling of the trained classifier. At the same time, a new classifier is also adapted for the target domain. We perform various ablation analysis under different experimental setups and demonstrate that the proposed approach achieves better results than the baseline models in this extremely novel scenario.

Accurate forecasting of medical service requirements is an important big data problem that is crucial for resource management in critical times such as natural disasters and pandemics. With the global spread of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), several concerns have been raised regarding the ability of medical systems to handle sudden changes in the daily routines of healthcare providers. One significant problem is the management of ambulance dispatch and control during a pandemic. To help address this problem, we first analyze ambulance dispatch data records from April 2014 to August 2020 for Nagoya City, Japan. Significant changes were observed in the data during the pandemic, including the state of emergency (SoE) declared across Japan. In this study, we propose a deep learning framework based on recurrent neural networks to estimate the number of emergency ambulance dispatches (EADs) during a SoE. The fusion of data includes environmental factors, the localization data of mobile phone users, and the past history of EADs, thereby providing a general framework for knowledge discovery and better resource management. The results indicate that the proposed blend of training data can be used efficiently in a real-world estimation of EAD requirements during periods of high uncertainties such as pandemics.

Argumentation provides a representation of arguments and attacks between these arguments. Argumentation can be used to represent a reasoning process over evidence to reach conclusions. Within such a reasoning process, understanding the value of information can improve the quality of decision making based on the output of the reasoning process. The value of an item of information is inherently dependent on the available evidence and the question being answered by the reasoning. In this paper we introduce a value of information on argument frameworks to identify the most valuable arguments within the finite set of arguments in the framework, and the arguments and attacks which could be added to change the output of an evaluation. We demonstrate the value of information within an argument framework representing an intelligence analysis in the maritime domain. Understanding the value of information in an intelligence analysis will allow analysts to balance the value against the costs and risks of collection, to effectively request further collection of intelligence to increase the confidence in the analysis of hypotheses.

Accurately predicting material properties is critical for discovering and designing novel materials. Machine learning technologies have attracted significant attention in materials science community for their potential for large-scale screening. Among the machine learning methods, graph convolution neural networks (GCNNs) have been one of the most successful ones because of their flexibility and effectiveness in describing 3D structural data. Most existing GCNN models focus on the topological structure but overly simplify the three-dimensional geometric structure. In materials science, the 3D-spatial distribution of the atoms, however, is crucial for determining the atomic states and interatomic forces. In this paper, we propose an adaptive GCNN with novel convolutions that model interactions among all neighboring atoms in three-dimensional space simultaneously. We apply the model to two distinctly challenging problems on predicting material properties. The first is Henry's constant for gas adsorption in Metal-Organic Frameworks (MOFs), which is notoriously difficult because of its high sensitivity to atomic configurations. The second is the ion conductivity of solid-state crystal materials, which is difficult because of very few labeled data available for training. The new model outperforms existing GCNN models on both data sets, suggesting that some important three-dimensional geometric information is indeed captured by the new model.

In performative prediction, predictions guide decision-making and hence can influence the distribution of future data. To date, work on performative prediction has focused on finding performatively stable models, which are the fixed points of repeated retraining. However, stable solutions can be far from optimal when evaluated in terms of the performative risk, the loss experienced by the decision maker when deploying a model. In this paper, we shift attention beyond performative stability and focus on optimizing the performative risk directly. We identify a natural set of properties of the loss function and model-induced distribution shift under which the performative risk is convex, a property which does not follow from convexity of the loss alone. Furthermore, we develop algorithms that leverage our structural assumptions to optimize the performative risk with better sample efficiency than generic methods for derivative-free convex optimization.

In linear regression, SLOPE is a new convex analysis method that generalizes the Lasso via the sorted L1 penalty: larger fitted coefficients are penalized more heavily. This magnitude-dependent regularization requires an input of penalty sequence $\lambda$, instead of a scalar penalty as in the Lasso case, thus making the design extremely expensive in computation. In this paper, we propose two efficient algorithms to design the possibly high-dimensional SLOPE penalty, in order to minimize the mean squared error. For Gaussian data matrices, we propose a first order Projected Gradient Descent (PGD) under the Approximate Message Passing regime. For general data matrices, we present a zero-th order Coordinate Descent (CD) to design a sub-class of SLOPE, referred to as the k-level SLOPE. Our CD allows a useful trade-off between the accuracy and the computation speed. We demonstrate the performance of SLOPE with our designs via extensive experiments on synthetic data and real-world datasets.

Performative distribution shift captures the setting where the choice of which ML model is deployed changes the data distribution. For example, a bank which uses the number of open credit lines to determine a customer's risk of default on a loan may induce customers to open more credit lines in order to improve their chances of being approved. Because of the interactions between the model and data distribution, finding the optimal model parameters is challenging. Works in this area have focused on finding stable points, which can be far from optimal. Here we introduce performative gradient descent (PerfGD), which is the first algorithm which provably converges to the performatively optimal point. PerfGD explicitly captures how changes in the model affects the data distribution and is simple to use. We support our findings with theory and experiments.

Deep generative models have shown themselves to be state-of-the-art density estimators. Yet, recent work has found that they often assign a higher likelihood to data from outside the training distribution. This seemingly paradoxical behavior has caused concerns over the quality of the attained density estimates. In the context of hierarchical variational autoencoders, we provide evidence to explain this behavior by out-of-distribution data having in-distribution low-level features. We argue that this is both expected and desirable behavior. With this insight in hand, we develop a fast, scalable and fully unsupervised likelihood-ratio score for OOD detection that requires data to be in-distribution across all feature-levels. We benchmark the method on a vast set of data and model combinations and achieve state-of-the-art results on out-of-distribution detection.

Flu circulates all over the world. The worldwide infection places a substantial burden on people's health every year. Regardless of the characteristic of the worldwide circulation of flu, most previous studies focused on regional prediction of flu outbreaks. The methodology of considering the spatio-temporal correlation could help forecast flu outbreaks more precisely. Furthermore, forecasting a long-term flu outbreak, and understanding flu infection trends more accurately could help hospitals, clinics, and pharmaceutical companies to better prepare for annual flu outbreaks. Predicting a sequence of values in the future, namely, the multi-step prediction of flu outbreaks should cause concern. Therefore, we highlight the importance of developing spatio-temporal methodologies to perform multi-step prediction of worldwide flu outbreaks. We compared the MAPEs of SVM, RF, LSTM models of predicting flu data of the 1-4 weeks ahead with and without other countries' flu data. We found the LSTM models achieved the lowest MAPEs in most cases. As for countries in the Southern hemisphere, the MAPEs of predicting flu data with other countries are higher than those of predicting without other countries. For countries in the Northern hemisphere, the MAPEs of predicting flu data of the 2-4 weeks ahead with other countries are lower than those of predicting without other countries; and the MAPEs of predicting flu data of the 1-weeks ahead with other countries are higher than those of predicting without other countries, except for the UK. In this study, we performed the spatio-temporal multi-step prediction of influenza outbreaks. The methodology considering the spatio-temporal features improves the multi-step prediction of flu outbreaks.