We address the problem of modeling constrained hospital resources in the midst of the COVID-19 pandemic in order to inform decision-makers of future demand and assess the societal value of possible interventions. For broad applicability, we focus on the common yet challenging scenario where patient-level data for a region of interest are not available. Instead, given daily admissions counts, we model aggregated counts of observed resource use, such as the number of patients in the general ward, in the intensive care unit, or on a ventilator. In order to explain how individual patient trajectories produce these counts, we propose an aggregate count explicit-duration hidden Markov model, nicknamed the ACED-HMM, with an interpretable, compact parameterization. We develop an Approximate Bayesian Computation approach that draws samples from the posterior distribution over the model's transition and duration parameters given aggregate counts from a specific location, thus adapting the model to a region or individual hospital site of interest. Samples from this posterior can then be used to produce future forecasts of any counts of interest. Using data from the United States and the United Kingdom, we show our mechanistic approach provides competitive probabilistic forecasts for the future even as the dynamics of the pandemic shift. Furthermore, we show how our model provides insight about recovery probabilities or length of stay distributions, and we suggest its potential to answer challenging what-if questions about the societal value of possible interventions.

This paper studies linear convergence of the subspace constrained mean shift (SCMS) algorithm, a well-known algorithm for identifying a density ridge defined by a kernel density estimator. By arguing that the SCMS algorithm is a special variant of a subspace constrained gradient ascent (SCGA) algorithm with an adaptive step size, we derive linear convergence of such SCGA algorithm. While the existing research focuses mainly on density ridges in the Euclidean space, we generalize density ridges and the SCMS algorithm to directional data. In particular, we establish the stability theorem of density ridges with directional data and prove the linear convergence of our proposed directional SCMS algorithm.

Across machine learning (ML) sub-disciplines, researchers make explicit mathematical assumptions in order to facilitate proof-writing. We note that, specifically in the area of fairness-accuracy trade-off optimization scholarship, similar attention is not paid to the normative assumptions that ground this approach. Such assumptions presume that 1) accuracy and fairness are in inherent opposition to one another, 2) strict notions of mathematical equality can adequately model fairness, 3) it is possible to measure the accuracy and fairness of decisions independent from historical context, and 4) collecting more data on marginalized individuals is a reasonable solution to mitigate the effects of the trade-off. We argue that such assumptions, which are often left implicit and unexamined, lead to inconsistent conclusions: While the intended goal of this work may be to improve the fairness of machine learning models, these unexamined, implicit assumptions can in fact result in emergent unfairness. We conclude by suggesting a concrete path forward toward a potential resolution.

A dimension reduction method based on the "Nonlinear Level set Learning" (NLL) approach is presented for the pointwise prediction of functions which have been sparsely sampled. Leveraging geometric information provided by the Implicit Function Theorem, the proposed algorithm effectively reduces the input dimension to the theoretical lower bound with minor accuracy loss, providing a one-dimensional representation of the function which can be used for regression and sensitivity analysis. Experiments and applications are presented which compare this modified NLL with the original NLL and the Active Subspaces (AS) method. While accommodating sparse input data, the proposed algorithm is shown to train quickly and provide a much more accurate and informative reduction than either AS or the original NLL on two example functions with high-dimensional domains, as well as two state-dependent quantities depending on the solutions to parametric differential equations.

Astronomers require efficient automated detection and classification pipelines when conducting large-scale surveys of the (optical) sky for variable and transient sources. Such pipelines are fundamentally important, as they permit rapid follow-up and analysis of those detections most likely to be of scientific value. We therefore present a deep learning pipeline based on the convolutional neural network architecture called $\texttt{MeerCRAB}$. It is designed to filter out the so called 'bogus' detections from true astrophysical sources in the transient detection pipeline of the MeerLICHT telescope. Optical candidates are described using a variety of 2D images and numerical features extracted from those images. The relationship between the input images and the target classes is unclear, since the ground truth is poorly defined and often the subject of debate. This makes it difficult to determine which source of information should be used to train a classification algorithm. We therefore used two methods for labelling our data (i) thresholding and (ii) latent class model approaches. We deployed variants of $\texttt{MeerCRAB}$ that employed different network architectures trained using different combinations of input images and training set choices, based on classification labels provided by volunteers. The deepest network worked best with an accuracy of 99.5$\%$ and Matthews correlation coefficient (MCC) value of 0.989. The best model was integrated to the MeerLICHT transient vetting pipeline, enabling the accurate and efficient classification of detected transients that allows researchers to select the most promising candidates for their research goals.

This paper is the first to explore the question of whether images that are classified incorrectly by a face analytics algorithm (e.g., gender classification) are any more or less likely to participate in an image pair that results in a face recognition error. We analyze results from three different gender classification algorithms (one open-source and two commercial), and two face recognition algorithms (one open-source and one commercial), on image sets representing four demographic groups (African-American female and male, Caucasian female and male). For impostor image pairs, our results show that pairs in which one image has a gender classification error have a better impostor distribution than pairs in which both images have correct gender classification, and so are less likely to generate a false match error. For genuine image pairs, our results show that individuals whose images have a mix of correct and incorrect gender classification have a worse genuine distribution (increased false non-match rate) compared to individuals whose images all have correct gender classification. Thus, compared to images that generate correct gender classification, images that generate gender classification errors do generate a different pattern of recognition errors, both better (false match) and worse (false non-match).

The material presented in this paper contributes to establishing a basis deemed essential for substantial progress in Automated Deduction. It identifies and studies global features in selected problems and their proofs which offer the potential of guiding proof search in a more direct way. The studied problems are of the wide-spread form of "axiom(s) and rule(s) imply goal(s)". The features include the well-known concept of lemmas. For their elaboration both human and automated proofs of selected theorems are taken into a close comparative consideration. The study at the same time accounts for a coherent and comprehensive formal reconstruction of historical work by {\L}ukasiewicz, Meredith and others. First experiments resulting from the study indicate novel ways of lemma generation to supplement automated first-order provers of various families, strengthening in particular their ability to find short proofs.

We translate a closed text that is known in advance into a severely low resource language by leveraging massive source parallelism. In other words, given a text in 124 source languages, we translate it into a severely low resource language using only ~1,000 lines of low resource data without any external help. Firstly, we propose a systematic method to rank and choose source languages that are close to the low resource language. We call the linguistic definition of language family Family of Origin (FAMO), and we call the empirical definition of higher-ranked languages using our metrics Family of Choice (FAMC). Secondly, we build an Iteratively Pretrained Multilingual Order-preserving Lexiconized Transformer (IPML) to train on ~1,000 lines (~3.5%) of low resource data. To translate named entities correctly, we build a massive lexicon table for 2,939 Bible named entities in 124 source languages, and include many that occur once and covers more than 66 severely low resource languages. Moreover, we also build a novel method of combining translations from different source languages into one. Using English as a hypothetical low resource language, we get a +23.9 BLEU increase over a multilingual baseline, and a +10.3 BLEU increase over our asymmetric baseline in the Bible dataset. We get a 42.8 BLEU score for Portuguese-English translation on the medical EMEA dataset. We also have good results for a real severely low resource Mayan language, Eastern Pokomchi.

Daouadi et al. [5] used deep learning methods on features based on the amount of interaction to and from each Social Media Platforms (SMPs) like Facebook, Twitter, Instagram Twitter account along with other set of features used previously, etc. have large user base all around the world that generates huge for fake user detection. Abu-El-Rub and Mueen [1] used trending amount of data every second. This includes a lot of posts by fake hashtags to detect bots interested in political trends. Graph based and spam users, typically used by many organisations around the techniques are used to cluster the collected bots and those are fed globe to have competitive edge over others. In this work, we aim to supervised learning to detect user's agreement/disagreement to at detecting such user accounts in Twitter using a novel approach.

We consider the problem of detecting signals in the rank-one signal-plus-noise data matrix models that generalize the spiked Wishart matrices. We show that the principal component analysis can be improved by pre-transforming the matrix entries if the noise is non-Gaussian. As an intermediate step, we prove a sharp phase transition of the largest eigenvalues of spiked rectangular matrices, which extends the Baik-Ben Arous-P\'ech\'e (BBP) transition. We also propose a hypothesis test to detect the presence of signal with low computational complexity, based on the linear spectral statistics, which minimizes the sum of the Type-I and Type-II errors when the noise is Gaussian.