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Fuzzy Win-Win: A Novel Approach to Quantify Win-Win Using Fuzzy Logic

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The classic win-win has a key flaw in that it cannot offer the parties the right amounts of winning because each party believes they are winners. In reality, one party may win more than the other. This strategy is not limited to a single product or negotiation; it may be applied to a variety of situations in life. We present a novel way to measure the win-win situation in this paper. The proposed method employs Fuzzy logic to create a mathematical model that aids negotiators in quantifying their winning percentages. The model is put to the test on real-life negotiations scenarios such as the Iranian uranium enrichment negotiations, the Iraqi-Jordanian oil deal, and the iron ore negotiation (2005-2009). The presented model has shown to be a useful tool in practice and can be easily generalized to be utilized in other domains as well.


ELF: Exact-Lipschitz Based Universal Density Approximator Flow

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Normalizing flows have become more popular within the last few years; however, they continue to have limitations compared to other generative models, more specifically that they are computationally expensive in terms of memory and time. Early implementations of Normalizing Flows were coupling layers (Dinh et al., 2014, 2017; Kingma and Dhariwal, 2018) and autoregressive flows (Papamakarios et al., 2017; Kingma et al., 2016). These have easy to compute log-likelihoods; however, coupling layers tend to need quite a few parameters to achieve strong performance and autoregressive flows are extremely expensive to sample from. The newer technique of residual flows (Chen et al., 2019) allows for models that are built on standard components and have inductive biases that favor simpler functions (Gopal, 2020); however, these have the problem of being expensive in terms of time for computing log-likelihoods and training, as well as require quite a few layers for strong performance. Since the introduction of these models, there have been many developments that have lead to improvement in parameter efficiency such as FFJORD (Grathwohl et al., 2019), a continuous normalizing flow, that has a dynamic number of layers. However, this too can have computational problems as having a few dynamics layers can lead to hundreds of implicit layers. Among the flows introduced, the ones with provable universal approximation capability are Affine Coupling Layers (Dinh et al., 2014, 2017; Teshima et al., 2020), Neural Autoregressive Flows (NAF, Huang et al. (2018)), Block NAFs (BNAF, Cao et al. (2019)), Sum-of-Squares Polynomial Flow (Jaini et al., 2019), and Convex Potential Flows (CP-Flow, Huang et al. (2021)). Though these have been shown to be universal approximators, they do not necessarily translate into faster, more efficient training, and some of the flows listed require the expensive sampling routine of autoregressive flows.


Translating Human Mobility Forecasting through Natural Language Generation

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Existing human mobility forecasting models follow the standard design of the time-series prediction model which takes a series of numerical values as input to generate a numerical value as a prediction. Although treating this as a regression problem seems straightforward, incorporating various contextual information such as the semantic category information of each Place-of-Interest (POI) is a necessary step, and often the bottleneck, in designing an effective mobility prediction model. As opposed to the typical approach, we treat forecasting as a translation problem and propose a novel forecasting through a language generation pipeline. The paper aims to address the human mobility forecasting problem as a language translation task in a sequence-to-sequence manner. A mobility-to-language template is first introduced to describe the numerical mobility data as natural language sentences. The core intuition of the human mobility forecasting translation task is to convert the input mobility description sentences into a future mobility description from which the prediction target can be obtained. Under this pipeline, a two-branch network, SHIFT (Translating Human Mobility Forecasting), is designed. Specifically, it consists of one main branch for language generation and one auxiliary branch to directly learn mobility patterns. During the training, we develop a momentum mode for better connecting and training the two branches. Extensive experiments on three real-world datasets demonstrate that the proposed SHIFT is effective and presents a new revolutionary approach to forecasting human mobility.


Artificial Intelligence and Design of Experiments for Assessing Security of Electricity Supply: A Review and Strategic Outlook

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Assessing the effects of the energy transition and liberalization of energy markets on resource adequacy is an increasingly important and demanding task. The rising complexity in energy systems requires adequate methods for energy system modeling leading to increased computational requirements. Furthermore, with complexity, uncertainty increases likewise calling for probabilistic assessments and scenario analyses. To adequately and efficiently address these various requirements, new methods from the field of data science are needed to accelerate current methods. With our systematic literature review, we want to close the gap between the three disciplines (1) assessment of security of electricity supply, (2) artificial intelligence, and (3) design of experiments. For this, we conduct a large-scale quantitative review on selected fields of application and methods and make a synthesis that relates the different disciplines to each other. Among other findings, we identify metamodeling of complex security of electricity supply models using AI methods and applications of AI-based methods for forecasts of storage dispatch and (non-)availabilities as promising fields of application that have not sufficiently been covered, yet. We end with deriving a new methodological pipeline for adequately and efficiently addressing the present and upcoming challenges in the assessment of security of electricity supply.


Nigerian startups, Artificial Intelligence, e-market penetration

#artificialintelligence

Artificial Intelligence (AI), highly rated among the most disruptive technologies, is a great means for startups to achieve their growth targets. With a number of applications in big data, computer vision, natural language processing, etc, AI is revolutionizing businesses, industries and lives. AI, the ability of a digital computer or computer-controlled robot to perform tasks carried out by humans, is frequently applied to the project of developing systems endowed with the intellectual processes characteristic of humans, such as the ability to reason, discover meaning, generalize, or learn from past experience. Startups now attract the attention of several investors across the globe – In Europe, North America, Asia, and Africa. Some (co)founded by Nigerians include Cloud Minds, 4paradigm Intelia, Spear Lab, Ceretronics Technology, and Aide Solutions. Chopwork, the latest addition to Nigeria's e-market sector, is an AI-powered digital market platform created for sellers and buyers of digital products and services.


AI Weekly: AI researchers release toolkit to promote AI that helps to achieve sustainability goals

#artificialintelligence

While discussions about AI often center around the technology's commercial potential, increasingly, researchers are investigating ways that AI can be harnessed to drive societal change. Among others, Facebook chief AI scientist Yann LeCun and Google Brain cofounder Andrew Ng have argued that mitigating climate change and promoting energy efficiency are preeminent challenges for AI researchers. Along this vein, researchers at the Montreal AI Ethics Institute have proposed a framework designed to quantify the social impact of AI through techniques like compute-efficient machine learning. An IBM project delivers farm cultivation recommendations from digital farm "twins" that simulate the future soil conditions of real-world crops. Other researchers are using AI-generated images to help visualize climate change, and nonprofits like WattTime are working to reduce households' carbon footprint by automating when electric vehicles, thermostats, and appliances are active based on where renewable energy is available.


Artificial Intelligence Market Predictions Set Incredible Growth in Coming Years

#artificialintelligence

Global Artificial Intelligence (AI) in BFSI Sector market report provides information from major key players, geography, segmentation, competitor analysis, sales, revenue, price, gross margin, market share, import-export, trends and forecast 2021-2027. The Artificial Intelligence (AI) in BFSI Sector market Research is an intelligent report with careful efforts to study accurate and valuable information. The data that has been examined is made with regard to both the best existing players and future competitors. The business strategies of the major players and new industries in the emerging market are studied in detail. A well-explained SWOT analysis, revenue sharing and contact information are shared in this report analysis.


Predicting Above-Sentence Discourse Structure using Distant Supervision from Topic Segmentation

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

RST-style discourse parsing plays a vital role in many NLP tasks, revealing the underlying semantic/pragmatic structure of potentially complex and diverse documents. Despite its importance, one of the most prevailing limitations in modern day discourse parsing is the lack of large-scale datasets. To overcome the data sparsity issue, distantly supervised approaches from tasks like sentiment analysis and summarization have been recently proposed. Here, we extend this line of research by exploiting distant supervision from topic segmentation, which can arguably provide a strong and oftentimes complementary signal for high-level discourse structures. Experiments on two human-annotated discourse treebanks confirm that our proposal generates accurate tree structures on sentence and paragraph level, consistently outperforming previous distantly supervised models on the sentence-to-document task and occasionally reaching even higher scores on the sentence-to-paragraph level.


A Survey on Societal Event Forecasting with Deep Learning

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Population-level societal events, such as civil unrest and crime, often have a significant impact on our daily life. Forecasting such events is of great importance for decision-making and resource allocation. Event prediction has traditionally been challenging due to the lack of knowledge regarding the true causes and underlying mechanisms of event occurrence. In recent years, research on event forecasting has made significant progress due to two main reasons: (1) the development of machine learning and deep learning algorithms and (2) the accessibility of public data such as social media, news sources, blogs, economic indicators, and other meta-data sources. The explosive growth of data and the remarkable advancement in software/hardware technologies have led to applications of deep learning techniques in societal event studies. This paper is dedicated to providing a systematic and comprehensive overview of deep learning technologies for societal event predictions. We focus on two domains of societal events: \textit{civil unrest} and \textit{crime}. We first introduce how event forecasting problems are formulated as a machine learning prediction task. Then, we summarize data resources, traditional methods, and recent development of deep learning models for these problems. Finally, we discuss the challenges in societal event forecasting and put forward some promising directions for future research.


Weakly Supervised Mapping of Natural Language to SQL through Question Decomposition

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Natural Language Interfaces to Databases (NLIDBs), where users pose queries in Natural Language (NL), are crucial for enabling non-experts to gain insights from data. Developing such interfaces, by contrast, is dependent on experts who often code heuristics for mapping NL to SQL. Alternatively, NLIDBs based on machine learning models rely on supervised examples of NL to SQL mappings (NL-SQL pairs) used as training data. Such examples are again procured using experts, which typically involves more than a one-off interaction. Namely, each data domain in which the NLIDB is deployed may have different characteristics and therefore require either dedicated heuristics or domain-specific training examples. To this end, we propose an alternative approach for training machine learning-based NLIDBs, using weak supervision. We use the recently proposed question decomposition representation called QDMR, an intermediate between NL and formal query languages. Recent work has shown that non-experts are generally successful in translating NL to QDMR. We consequently use NL-QDMR pairs, along with the question answers, as supervision for automatically synthesizing SQL queries. The NL questions and synthesized SQL are then used to train NL-to-SQL models, which we test on five benchmark datasets. Extensive experiments show that our solution, requiring zero expert annotations, performs competitively with models trained on expert annotated data.