Africa
3 Ways Artificial Intelligence Can be Used to Improve Health Equity
When I graduated from medical school and took the Hippocratic Oath, I vowed to not just treat the illness on a patient's medical history form but to treat the person behind the diagnosis. To do this well, clinicians need to understand the whole person and the context in which they live -- their race, gender identity, native language, socioeconomic status, or zip code, among other things -- to ensure equitable care. According to the CDC, health equity is reached when every person has the opportunity to attain his or her full health potential regardless of social position or other socially determined circumstances. Yet, health inequities abound in our healthcare systems. Research says that those Americans who live in rural communities have less access to care and subsequently worse health outcomes than those who live in non-rural communities.
Human-Robot Creative Interactions (HRCI): Exploring Creativity in Artificial Agents Using a Story-Telling Game
Sandoval, Eduardo Benitez, Sosa, Ricardo, Cappuccio, Massimiliano, Bednarz, Tomasz
Creativity in social robots requires further attention in the interdisciplinary field of Human-Robot Interaction (HRI). This paper investigates the hypothesised connection between the perceived creative agency and the animacy of social robots. The goal of this work is to assess the relevance of robot movements in the attribution of creativity to robots. The results of this work inform the design of future Human-Robot Creative Interactions (HRCI). The study uses a storytelling game based on visual imagery inspired by the game 'Story Cubes' to explore the perceived creative agency of social robots. This game is used to tell a classic story for children with an alternative ending. A 2x2 experiment was designed to compare two conditions: the robot telling the original version of the story and the robot plot-twisting the end of the story. A Robotis Mini humanoid robot was used for the experiment. As a novel contribution, we propose an adaptation of the Short Scale Creative Self scale (SSCS) to measure perceived creative agency in robots. We also use the Godspeed scale to explore different attributes of social robots in this setting. We did not obtain significant main effects of the robot movements or the story in the participants' scores. However, we identified significant main effects of the robot movements in features of animacy, likeability, and perceived safety. This initial work encourages further studies experimenting with different robot embodiment and movements to evaluate the perceived creative agency in robots and inform the design of future robots that participate in creative interactions.
Latent gaze information in highly dynamic decision-tasks
Digitization is penetrating more and more areas of life. Tasks are increasingly being completed digitally, and are therefore not only fulfilled faster, more efficiently but also more purposefully and successfully. The rapid developments in the field of artificial intelligence in recent years have played a major role in this, as they brought up many helpful approaches to build on. At the same time, the eyes, their movements, and the meaning of these movements are being progressively researched. The combination of these developments has led to exciting approaches. In this dissertation, I present some of these approaches which I worked on during my Ph.D. First, I provide insight into the development of models that use artificial intelligence to connect eye movements with visual expertise. This is demonstrated for two domains or rather groups of people: athletes in decision-making actions and surgeons in arthroscopic procedures. The resulting models can be considered as digital diagnostic models for automatic expertise recognition. Furthermore, I show approaches that investigate the transferability of eye movement patterns to different expertise domains and subsequently, important aspects of techniques for generalization. Finally, I address the temporal detection of confusion based on eye movement data. The results suggest the use of the resulting model as a clock signal for possible digital assistance options in the training of young professionals. An interesting aspect of my research is that I was able to draw on very valuable data from DFB youth elite athletes as well as on long-standing experts in arthroscopy. In particular, the work with the DFB data attracted the interest of radio and print media, namely DeutschlandFunk Nova and SWR DasDing. All resulting articles presented here have been published in internationally renowned journals or at conferences.
Social-DualCVAE: Multimodal Trajectory Forecasting Based on Social Interactions Pattern Aware and Dual Conditional Variational Auto-Encoder
Gao, Jiashi, Shi, Xinming, Yu, James J. Q.
Pedestrian trajectory forecasting is a fundamental task in multiple utility areas, such as self-driving, autonomous robots, and surveillance systems. The future trajectory forecasting is multi-modal, influenced by physical interaction with scene contexts and intricate social interactions among pedestrians. The mainly existing literature learns representations of social interactions by deep learning networks, while the explicit interaction patterns are not utilized. Different interaction patterns, such as following or collision avoiding, will generate different trends of next movement, thus, the awareness of social interaction patterns is important for trajectory forecasting. Moreover, the social interaction patterns are privacy concerned or lack of labels. To jointly address the above issues, we present a social-dual conditional variational auto-encoder (Social-DualCVAE) for multi-modal trajectory forecasting, which is based on a generative model conditioned not only on the past trajectories but also the unsupervised classification of interaction patterns. After generating the category distribution of the unlabeled social interaction patterns, DualCVAE, conditioned on the past trajectories and social interaction pattern, is proposed for multi-modal trajectory prediction by latent variables estimating. A variational bound is derived as the minimization objective during training. The proposed model is evaluated on widely used trajectory benchmarks and outperforms the prior state-of-the-art methods.
Counterfactual Multi-Token Fairness in Text Classification
The counterfactual token generation has been limited to perturbing only a single token in texts that are generally short and single sentences. These tokens are often associated with one of many sensitive attributes. With limited counterfactuals generated, the goal to achieve invariant nature for machine learning classification models towards any sensitive attribute gets bounded, and the formulation of Counterfactual Fairness gets narrowed. In this paper, we overcome these limitations by solving root problems and opening bigger domains for understanding. We have curated a resource of sensitive tokens and their corresponding perturbation tokens, even extending the support beyond traditionally used sensitive attributes like Age, Gender, Race to Nationality, Disability, and Religion. The concept of Counterfactual Generation has been extended to multi-token support valid over all forms of texts and documents. We define the method of generating counterfactuals by perturbing multiple sensitive tokens as Counterfactual Multi-token Generation. The method has been conceptualized to showcase significant performance improvement over single-token methods and validated over multiple benchmark datasets. The emendation in counterfactual generation propagates in achieving improved Counterfactual Multi-token Fairness.
The Lifecycle of a Statistical Model: Model Failure Detection, Identification, and Refitting
Ali, Alnur, Cauchois, Maxime, Duchi, John C.
The statistical machine learning community has demonstrated considerable resourcefulness over the years in developing highly expressive tools for estimation, prediction, and inference. The bedrock assumptions underlying these developments are that the data comes from a fixed population and displays little heterogeneity. But reality is significantly more complex: statistical models now routinely fail when released into real-world systems and scientific applications, where such assumptions rarely hold. Consequently, we pursue a different path in this paper vis-a-vis the well-worn trail of developing new methodology for estimation and prediction. In this paper, we develop tools and theory for detecting and identifying regions of the covariate space (subpopulations) where model performance has begun to degrade, and study intervening to fix these failures through refitting. We present empirical results with three real-world data sets -- including a time series involving forecasting the incidence of COVID-19 -- showing that our methodology generates interpretable results, is useful for tracking model performance, and can boost model performance through refitting. We complement these empirical results with theory proving that our methodology is minimax optimal for recovering anomalous subpopulations as well as refitting to improve accuracy in a structured normal means setting.
Multi-model Ensemble Analysis with Neural Network Gaussian Processes
Harris, Trevor, Li, Bo, Sriver, Ryan
Multi-model ensemble analysis integrates information from multiple climate models into a unified projection. However, existing integration approaches based on model averaging can dilute fine-scale spatial information and incur bias from rescaling low-resolution climate models. We propose a statistical approach, called NN-GPR, using Gaussian process regression (GPR) with an infinitely wide deep neural network based covariance function. NN-GPR requires no assumptions about the relationships between models, no interpolation to a common grid, no stationarity assumptions, and automatically downscales as part of its prediction algorithm. Model experiments show that NN-GPR can be highly skillful at surface temperature and precipitation forecasting by preserving geospatial signals at multiple scales and capturing inter-annual variability. Our projections particularly show improved accuracy and uncertainty quantification skill in regions of high variability, which allows us to cheaply assess tail behavior at a 0.44$^\circ$/50 km spatial resolution without a regional climate model (RCM). Evaluations on reanalysis data and SSP245 forced climate models show that NN-GPR produces similar, overall climatologies to the model ensemble while better capturing fine scale spatial patterns. Finally, we compare NN-GPR's regional predictions against two RCMs and show that NN-GPR can rival the performance of RCMs using only global model data as input.
Developing and Deploying a Churn Prediction Model with Azure Machine Learning Services - CSE Developer Blog
For a subscription service business, there are two ways to drive growth: grow the number of new customers, or increase the lifetime value from the customers that you already have by retaining more of them. Improving customer retention requires the ability to predict which subscribers are likely to cancel (referred to as churn), and to intervene with the right retention offers at the right time. Recently, the use of deep learning algorithms that learn sequential product usage customer behavior to make predictions have begun to offer businesses a more powerful method to pinpoint accounts at risk. This understanding of an account's churn likelihood allows a company to proactively act to save the most valuable customers before they cancel. CSE recently partnered with the finance group of Majid Al Futtaim Ventures (MAF), a leading mall, communities, retail and leisure pioneer across the Middle East, Africa and Asia, to design and deploy a machine learning solution to predict attrition within their consumer credit card customer base. MAF sought to use their customer records – including transaction and incident history plus account profile information – to inform a predictive model.
DeepSSN: a deep convolutional neural network to assess spatial scene similarity
Guo, Danhuai, Ge, Shiyin, Zhang, Shu, Gao, Song, Tao, Ran, Wang, Yangang
Spatial-query-by-sketch is an intuitive tool to explore human spatial knowledge about geographic environments and to support communication with scene database queries. However, traditional sketch-based spatial search methods perform insufficiently due to their inability to find hidden multi-scale map features from mental sketches. In this research, we propose a deep convolutional neural network, namely Deep Spatial Scene Network (DeepSSN), to better assess the spatial scene similarity. In DeepSSN, a triplet loss function is designed as a comprehensive distance metric to support the similarity assessment. A positive and negative example mining strategy using qualitative constraint networks in spatial reasoning is designed to ensure a consistently increasing distinction of triplets during the training process. Moreover, we develop a prototype spatial scene search system using the proposed DeepSSN, in which the users input spatial query via sketch maps and the system can automatically augment the sketch training data. The proposed model is validated using multi-source conflated map data including 131,300 labeled scene samples after data augmentation. The empirical results demonstrate that the DeepSSN outperforms baseline methods including k-nearest-neighbors, multilayer perceptron, AlexNet, DenseNet, and ResNet using mean reciprocal rank and precision metrics. This research advances geographic information retrieval studies by introducing a novel deep learning method tailored to spatial scene queries.
Tractable Boolean and Arithmetic Circuits
Tractable Boolean and arithmetic circuits have been studied extensively in AI for over two decades now. These circuits were initially proposed as "compiled objects," meant to facilitate logical and probabilistic reasoning, as they permit various types of inference to be performed in linear-time and a feed-forward fashion like neural networks. In more recent years, the role of tractable circuits has significantly expanded as they became a computational and semantical backbone for some approaches that aim to integrate knowledge, reasoning and learning. In this article, we review the foundations of tractable circuits and some associated milestones, while focusing on their core properties and techniques that make them particularly useful for the broad aims of neuro-symbolic AI.