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Supporting peace negotiations in the Yemen war through machine learning

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Today's conflicts are becoming increasingly complex, fluid and fragmented, often involving a host of national and international actors with multiple and often divergent interests. This development poses significant challenges for conflict mediation, as mediators struggle to make sense of conflict dynamics, such as the range of conflict parties and the evolution of their political positions, the distinction between relevant and less relevant actors in peace-making, or the identification of key conflict issues and their interdependence. International peace efforts appear ill-equipped to successfully address these challenges. While technology is already being experimented with and used in a range of conflict related fields, such as conflict predicting or information gathering, less attention has been given to how technology can contribute to conflict mediation. This case study contributes to emerging research on the use of state-of-the-art machine learning technologies and techniques in conflict mediation processes. Using dialogue transcripts from peace negotiations in Yemen, this study shows how machine-learning can effectively support mediating teams by providing them with tools for knowledge management, extraction and conflict analysis. Apart from illustrating the potential of machine learning tools in conflict mediation, the paper also emphasises the importance of interdisciplinary and participatory, co-creation methodology for the development of context-sensitive and targeted tools and to ensure meaningful and responsible implementation.


Vaccine Discourse on Twitter During the COVID-19 Pandemic

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, vaccines have been an important topic in public discourse. The discussions around vaccines are polarized as some see them as an important measure to end the pandemic, and others are hesitant or find them harmful. This study investigates posts related to COVID-19 vaccines on Twitter and focuses on those which have a negative stance toward vaccines. A dataset of 16,713,238 English tweets related to COVID-19 vaccines was collected covering the period from March 1, 2020, to July 31, 2021. We used the Scikit-learn Python library to apply a support vector machine (SVM) classifier to identify the tweets with a negative stance toward the COVID-19 vaccines. A total of 5,163 tweets were used to train the classifier, out of which a subset of 2,484 tweets were manually annotated by us and made publicly available. We used the BERTtopic model to extract and investigate the topics discussed within the negative tweets and how they changed over time. We show that the negativity with respect to COVID-19 vaccines has decreased over time along with the vaccine roll-outs. We identify 37 topics of discussion and present their respective importance over time. We show that popular topics consist of conspiratorial discussions such as 5G towers and microchips, but also contain legitimate concerns around vaccination safety and side effects as well as concerns about policies. Our study shows that even unpopular opinions or conspiracy theories can become widespread when paired with a widely popular discussion topic such as COVID-19 vaccines. Understanding the concerns and the discussed topics and how they change over time is essential for policymakers and public health authorities to provide better and in-time information and policies, to facilitate vaccination of the population in future similar crises.


Augmented Bilinear Network for Incremental Multi-Stock Time-Series Classification

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Deep Learning models have become dominant in tackling financial time-series analysis problems, overturning conventional machine learning and statistical methods. Most often, a model trained for one market or security cannot be directly applied to another market or security due to differences inherent in the market conditions. In addition, as the market evolves through time, it is necessary to update the existing models or train new ones when new data is made available. This scenario, which is inherent in most financial forecasting applications, naturally raises the following research question: How to efficiently adapt a pre-trained model to a new set of data while retaining performance on the old data, especially when the old data is not accessible? In this paper, we propose a method to efficiently retain the knowledge available in a neural network pre-trained on a set of securities and adapt it to achieve high performance in new ones. In our method, the prior knowledge encoded in a pre-trained neural network is maintained by keeping existing connections fixed, and this knowledge is adjusted for the new securities by a set of augmented connections, which are optimized using the new data. The auxiliary connections are constrained to be of low rank. This not only allows us to rapidly optimize for the new task but also reduces the storage and run-time complexity during the deployment phase. The efficiency of our approach is empirically validated in the stock mid-price movement prediction problem using a large-scale limit order book dataset. Experimental results show that our approach enhances prediction performance as well as reduces the overall number of network parameters.


Counterfactual Reasoning for Out-of-distribution Multimodal Sentiment Analysis

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Existing studies on multimodal sentiment analysis heavily rely on textual modality and unavoidably induce the spurious correlations between textual words and sentiment labels. This greatly hinders the model generalization ability. To address this problem, we define the task of out-of-distribution (OOD) multimodal sentiment analysis. This task aims to estimate and mitigate the bad effect of textual modality for strong OOD generalization. To this end, we embrace causal inference, which inspects the causal relationships via a causal graph. From the graph, we find that the spurious correlations are attributed to the direct effect of textual modality on the model prediction while the indirect one is more reliable by considering multimodal semantics. Inspired by this, we devise a model-agnostic counterfactual framework for multimodal sentiment analysis, which captures the direct effect of textual modality via an extra text model and estimates the indirect one by a multimodal model. During the inference, we first estimate the direct effect by the counterfactual inference, and then subtract it from the total effect of all modalities to obtain the indirect effect for reliable prediction. Extensive experiments show the superior effectiveness and generalization ability of our proposed framework.


Personal AI is on the way of revolutionising realty market

#artificialintelligence

Realiste, a leading AI developer in the real estate market has finally launched in the Middle East, changing the real-estate and housing landscape using the latest advanced technologies within all operations. Realiste is an AI-based real estate market development company committed to providing users with accurate and timely market value appraisals. The company's mission is to digitise the real estate market of every major city across the world, while offering free access to appraisals and personalised recommendations. Since launching in December 2021 it has established operations in Riyadh, Dubai, London, New York, and Moscow and are planning more expansions in the next year. Realiste has successfully fielded an application capable of monitoring the market round-the-clock and displaying the true value of real estate, as well as predicting price movements of properties for the next 6 to 12 months.


Towards Fairness-Aware Multi-Objective Optimization

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Recent years have seen the rapid development of fairness-aware machine learning in mitigating unfairness or discrimination in decision-making in a wide range of applications. However, much less attention has been paid to the fairness-aware multi-objective optimization, which is indeed commonly seen in real life, such as fair resource allocation problems and data driven multi-objective optimization problems. This paper aims to illuminate and broaden our understanding of multi-objective optimization from the perspective of fairness. To this end, we start with a discussion of user preferences in multi-objective optimization and then explore its relationship to fairness in machine learning and multi-objective optimization. Following the above discussions, representative cases of fairness-aware multiobjective optimization are presented, further elaborating the importance of fairness in traditional multi-objective optimization, data-driven optimization and federated optimization. Finally, challenges and opportunities in fairness-aware multi-objective optimization are addressed. We hope that this article makes a small step forward towards understanding fairness in the context of optimization and promote research interest in fairness-aware multi-objective optimization.


Layer-Wise Partitioning and Merging for Efficient and Scalable Deep Learning

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Deep Neural Network (DNN) models are usually trained sequentially from one layer to another, which causes forward, backward and update locking's problems, leading to poor performance in terms of training time. The existing parallel strategies to mitigate these problems provide suboptimal runtime performance. In this work, we have proposed a novel layer-wise partitioning and merging, forward and backward pass parallel framework to provide better training performance. The novelty of the proposed work consists of 1) a layer-wise partition and merging model which can minimise communication overhead between devices without the memory cost of existing strategies during the training process; 2) a forward pass and backward pass parallelisation and optimisation to address the update locking problem and minimise the total training cost. The experimental evaluation on real use cases shows that the proposed method outperforms the state-of-the-art approaches in terms of training speed; and achieves almost linear speedup without compromising the accuracy performance of the non-parallel approach.


Code Structure Guided Transformer for Source Code Summarization

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Code summaries help developers comprehend programs and reduce their time to infer the program functionalities during software maintenance. Recent efforts resort to deep learning techniques such as sequence-to-sequence models for generating accurate code summaries, among which Transformer-based approaches have achieved promising performance. However, effectively integrating the code structure information into the Transformer is under-explored in this task domain. In this paper, we propose a novel approach named SG-Trans to incorporate code structural properties into Transformer. Specifically, we inject the local symbolic information (e.g., code tokens and statements) and global syntactic structure (e.g., data flow graph) into the self-attention module of Transformer as inductive bias. To further capture the hierarchical characteristics of code, the local information and global structure are designed to distribute in the attention heads of lower layers and high layers of Transformer. Extensive evaluation shows the superior performance of SG-Trans over the state-of-the-art approaches. Compared with the best-performing baseline, SG-Trans still improves 1.4% and 2.0% in terms of METEOR score, a metric widely used for measuring generation quality, respectively on two benchmark datasets.


Guided Evolutionary Neural Architecture Search With Efficient Performance Estimation

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Neural Architecture Search (NAS) methods have been successfully applied to image tasks with excellent results. However, NAS methods are often complex and tend to converge to local minima as soon as generated architectures seem to yield good results. This paper proposes GEA, a novel approach for guided NAS. GEA guides the evolution by exploring the search space by generating and evaluating several architectures in each generation at initialisation stage using a zero-proxy estimator, where only the highest-scoring architecture is trained and kept for the next generation. Subsequently, GEA continuously extracts knowledge about the search space without increased complexity by generating several off-springs from an existing architecture at each generation. More, GEA forces exploitation of the most performant architectures by descendant generation while simultaneously driving exploration through parent mutation and favouring younger architectures to the detriment of older ones. Experimental results demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method, and extensive ablation studies evaluate the importance of different parameters. Results show that GEA achieves state-of-the-art results on all data sets of NAS-Bench-101, NAS-Bench-201 and TransNAS-Bench-101 benchmarks.


NLP From Scratch Without Large-Scale Pretraining: A Simple and Efficient Framework

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Pretrained language models have become the standard approach for many NLP tasks due to strong performance, but they are very expensive to train. We propose a simple and efficient learning framework, TLM, that does not rely on large-scale pretraining. Given some labeled task data and a large general corpus, TLM uses task data as queries to retrieve a tiny subset of the general corpus and jointly optimizes the task objective and the language modeling objective from scratch. On eight classification datasets in four domains, TLM achieves results better than or similar to pretrained language models (e.g., RoBERTa-Large) while reducing the training FLOPs by two orders of magnitude. With high accuracy and efficiency, we hope TLM will contribute to democratizing NLP and expediting its development.