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A pragmatic account of the weak evidence effect

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Language is not only used to transmit neutral information; we often seek to persuade by arguing in favor of a particular view. Persuasion raises a number of challenges for classical accounts of belief updating, as information cannot be taken at face value. How should listeners account for a speaker's "hidden agenda" when incorporating new information? Here, we extend recent probabilistic models of recursive social reasoning to allow for persuasive goals and show that our model provides a pragmatic account for why weakly favorable arguments may backfire, a phenomenon known as the weak evidence effect. Critically, this model predicts a systematic relationship between belief updates and expectations about the information source: weak evidence should only backfire when speakers are expected to act under persuasive goals and prefer the strongest evidence. We introduce a simple experimental paradigm called the Stick Contest to measure the extent to which the weak evidence effect depends on speaker expectations, and show that a pragmatic listener model accounts for the empirical data better than alternative models. Our findings suggest further avenues for rational models of social reasoning to illuminate classical decision-making phenomena.


Investigating the Predictive Reproducibility of Federated Graph Neural Networks using Medical Datasets

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Graph neural networks (GNNs) have achieved extraordinary enhancements in various areas including the fields medical imaging and network neuroscience where they displayed a high accuracy in diagnosing challenging neurological disorders such as autism. In the face of medical data scarcity and high-privacy, training such data-hungry models remains challenging. Federated learning brings an efficient solution to this issue by allowing to train models on multiple datasets, collected independently by different hospitals, in fully data-preserving manner. Although both state-of-the-art GNNs and federated learning techniques focus on boosting classification accuracy, they overlook a critical unsolved problem: investigating the reproducibility of the most discriminative biomarkers (i.e., features) selected by the GNN models within a federated learning paradigm. Quantifying the reproducibility of a predictive medical model against perturbations of training and testing data distributions presents one of the biggest hurdles to overcome in developing translational clinical applications. To the best of our knowledge, this presents the first work investigating the reproducibility of federated GNN models with application to classifying medical imaging and brain connectivity datasets. We evaluated our framework using various GNN models trained on medical imaging and connectomic datasets. More importantly, we showed that federated learning boosts both the accuracy and reproducibility of GNN models in such medical learning tasks.


Socially Enhanced Situation Awareness from Microblogs using Artificial Intelligence: A Survey

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The rise of social media platforms provides an unbounded, infinitely rich source of aggregate knowledge of the world around us, both historic and real-time, from a human perspective. The greatest challenge we face is how to process and understand this raw and unstructured data, go beyond individual observations and see the "big picture"--the domain of Situation Awareness. We provide an extensive survey of Artificial Intelligence research, focusing on microblog social media data with applications to Situation Awareness, that gives the seminal work and state-of-the-art approaches across six thematic areas: Crime, Disasters, Finance, Physical Environment, Politics, and Health and Population. We provide a novel, unified methodological perspective, identify key results and challenges, and present ongoing research directions.


Detection of Malicious Websites Using Machine Learning Techniques

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

In detecting malicious websites, a common approach is the use of blacklists which are not exhaustive in themselves and are unable to generalize to new malicious sites. Detecting newly encountered malicious websites automatically will help reduce the vulnerability to this form of attack. In this study, we explored the use of ten machine learning models to classify malicious websites based on lexical features and understand how they generalize across datasets. Specifically, we trained, validated, and tested these models on different sets of datasets and then carried out a cross-datasets analysis. From our analysis, we found that K-Nearest Neighbor is the only model that performs consistently high across datasets. Other models such as Random Forest, Decision Trees, Logistic Regression, and Support Vector Machines also consistently outperform a baseline model of predicting every link as malicious across all metrics and datasets. Also, we found no evidence that any subset of lexical features generalizes across models or datasets. This research should be relevant to cybersecurity professionals and academic researchers as it could form the basis for real-life detection systems or further research work.


Document Image Binarization in JPEG Compressed Domain using Dual Discriminator Generative Adversarial Networks

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Image binarization techniques are being popularly used in enhancement of noisy and/or degraded images catering different Document Image Anlaysis (DIA) applications like word spotting, document retrieval, and OCR. Most of the existing techniques focus on feeding pixel images into the Convolution Neural Networks to accomplish document binarization, which may not produce effective results when working with compressed images that need to be processed without full decompression. Therefore in this research paper, the idea of document image binarization directly using JPEG compressed stream of document images is proposed by employing Dual Discriminator Generative Adversarial Networks (DD-GANs). Here the two discriminator networks - Global and Local work on different image ratios and use focal loss as generator loss. The proposed model has been thoroughly tested with different versions of DIBCO dataset having challenges like holes, erased or smudged ink, dust, and misplaced fibres. The model proved to be highly robust, efficient both in terms of time and space complexities, and also resulted in state-of-the-art performance in JPEG compressed domain.


Generalized Intent Discovery: Learning from Open World Dialogue System

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Traditional intent classification models are based on a pre-defined intent set and only recognize limited in-domain (IND) intent classes. But users may input out-of-domain (OOD) queries in a practical dialogue system. Such OOD queries can provide directions for future improvement. In this paper, we define a new task, Generalized Intent Discovery (GID), which aims to extend an IND intent classifier to an open-world intent set including IND and OOD intents. We hope to simultaneously classify a set of labeled IND intent classes while discovering and recognizing new unlabeled OOD types incrementally. We construct three public datasets for different application scenarios and propose two kinds of frameworks, pipeline-based and end-to-end for future work. Further, we conduct exhaustive experiments and qualitative analysis to comprehend key challenges and provide new guidance for future GID research.


Document-aware Positional Encoding and Linguistic-guided Encoding for Abstractive Multi-document Summarization

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

One key challenge in multi-document summarization is to capture the relations among input documents that distinguish between single document summarization (SDS) and multi-document summarization (MDS). Few existing MDS works address this issue. One effective way is to encode document positional information to assist models in capturing cross-document relations. However, existing MDS models, such as Transformer-based models, only consider token-level positional information. Moreover, these models fail to capture sentences' linguistic structure, which inevitably causes confusions in the generated summaries. Therefore, in this paper, we propose document-aware positional encoding and linguistic-guided encoding that can be fused with Transformer architecture for MDS. For document-aware positional encoding, we introduce a general protocol to guide the selection of document encoding functions. For linguistic-guided encoding, we propose to embed syntactic dependency relations into the dependency relation mask with a simple but effective non-linear encoding learner for feature learning. Extensive experiments show the proposed model can generate summaries with high quality.


Pareto Driven Surrogate (ParDen-Sur) Assisted Optimisation of Multi-period Portfolio Backtest Simulations

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Portfolio management is a multi-period multi-objective optimisation problem subject to a wide range of constraints. However, in practice, portfolio management is treated as a single-period problem partly due to the computationally burdensome hyper-parameter search procedure needed to construct a multi-period Pareto frontier. This study presents the \gls{ParDen-Sur} modelling framework to efficiently perform the required hyper-parameter search. \gls{ParDen-Sur} extends previous surrogate frameworks by including a reservoir sampling-based look-ahead mechanism for offspring generation in \glspl{EA} alongside the traditional acceptance sampling scheme. We evaluate this framework against, and in conjunction with, several seminal \gls{MO} \glspl{EA} on two datasets for both the single- and multi-period use cases. Our results show that \gls{ParDen-Sur} can speed up the exploration for optimal hyper-parameters by almost $2\times$ with a statistically significant improvement of the Pareto frontiers, across multiple \glspl{EA}, for both datasets and use cases.


Twitter conversations predict the daily confirmed COVID-19 cases

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

As of writing this paper, COVID-19 (Coronavirus disease 2019) has spread to more than 220 countries and territories. Following the outbreak, the pandemic's seriousness has made people more active on social media, especially on the microblogging platforms such as Twitter and Weibo. The pandemic-specific discourse has remained on-trend on these platforms for months now. Previous studies have confirmed the contributions of such socially generated conversations towards situational awareness of crisis events. The early forecasts of cases are essential to authorities to estimate the requirements of resources needed to cope with the outgrowths of the virus. Therefore, this study attempts to incorporate the public discourse in the design of forecasting models particularly targeted for the steep-hill region of an ongoing wave. We propose a sentiment-involved topic-based latent variables search methodology for designing forecasting models from publicly available Twitter conversations. As a use case, we implement the proposed methodology on Australian COVID-19 daily cases and Twitter conversations generated within the country. Experimental results: (i) show the presence of latent social media variables that Granger-cause the daily COVID-19 confirmed cases, and (ii) confirm that those variables offer additional prediction capability to forecasting models. Further, the results show that the inclusion of social media variables introduces 48.83--51.38% improvements on RMSE over the baseline models. We also release the large-scale COVID-19 specific geotagged global tweets dataset, MegaGeoCOV, to the public anticipating that the geotagged data of this scale would aid in understanding the conversational dynamics of the pandemic through other spatial and temporal contexts.


VALUE: Understanding Dialect Disparity in NLU

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

English Natural Language Understanding (NLU) systems have achieved great performances and even outperformed humans on benchmarks like GLUE and SuperGLUE. However, these benchmarks contain only textbook Standard American English (SAE). Other dialects have been largely overlooked in the NLP community. This leads to biased and inequitable NLU systems that serve only a sub-population of speakers. To understand disparities in current models and to facilitate more dialect-competent NLU systems, we introduce the VernAcular Language Understanding Evaluation (VALUE) benchmark, a challenging variant of GLUE that we created with a set of lexical and morphosyntactic transformation rules. In this initial release (V.1), we construct rules for 11 features of African American Vernacular English (AAVE), and we recruit fluent AAVE speakers to validate each feature transformation via linguistic acceptability judgments in a participatory design manner. Experiments show that these new dialectal features can lead to a drop in model performance. To run the transformation code and download both synthetic and gold-standard dialectal GLUE benchmarks, see https://github.com/SALT-NLP/value