Some humans would say a football match is impossible to predict with any great certainty, but Kashef, our Artificial Intelligence (AI) predictor, would disagree. Kashef has been playing with historical data and performance to predict the results of each game all the way to the final. No surprise that Kashef is backing Lionel Messi and his team to beat the Green Falcons in today's first fixture. Kashef is siding with the Danish Dynamite on this one. However, Tunisia still stands an almost 50 percent chance of picking up at least a point.

Autonomous agents have made great strides in specialist domains like Atari games and Go. However, they typically learn tabula rasa in isolated environments with limited and manually conceived objectives, thus failing to generalize across a wide spectrum of tasks and capabilities. Inspired by how humans continually learn and adapt in the open world, we advocate a trinity of ingredients for building generalist agents: 1) an environment that supports a multitude of tasks and goals, 2) a large-scale database of multimodal knowledge, and 3) a flexible and scalable agent architecture. We introduce MineDojo, a new framework built on the popular Minecraft game that features a simulation suite with thousands of diverse open-ended tasks and an internet-scale knowledge base with Minecraft videos, tutorials, wiki pages, and forum discussions. Using MineDojo's data, we propose a novel agent learning algorithm that leverages large pre-trained video-language models as a learned reward function. Our agent is able to solve a variety of open-ended tasks specified in free-form language without any manually designed dense shaping reward. We open-source the simulation suite, knowledge bases, algorithm implementation, and pretrained models (https://minedojo.org) to promote research towards the goal of generally capable embodied agents.

Over the past decades, breakthroughs such as Reinforcement Learning (RL) and Agent-based modeling (ABM) have made simulations of economic models feasible. Recently, there has been increasing interest in applying ABM to study the impact of residential preferences on neighborhood segregation in the Schelling Segregation Model. In this paper, RL is combined with ABM to simulate a modified Schelling Segregation model, which incorporates moving expenses as an input parameter. In particular, deep Q network (DQN) is adopted as RL agents' learning algorithm to simulate the behaviors of households and their preferences. This paper studies the impact of moving expenses on the overall segregation pattern and its role in social integration. A more comprehensive simulation of the segregation model is built for policymakers to forecast the potential consequences of their policies.

Weak supervision is leveraged in a wide range of domains and tasks due to its ability to create massive amounts of labeled data, requiring only little manual effort. Standard approaches use labeling functions to specify signals that are relevant for the labeling. It has been conjectured that weakly supervised models over-rely on those signals and as a result suffer from overfitting. To verify this assumption, we introduce a novel method, XPASC (eXPlainability-Association SCore), for measuring the generalization of a model trained with a weakly supervised dataset. Considering the occurrences of features, classes and labeling functions in a dataset, XPASC takes into account the relevance of each feature for the predictions of the model as well as the associations of the feature with the class and the labeling function, respectively. The association in XPASC can be measured in two variants: XPASC-CHI SQAURE measures associations relative to their statistical significance, while XPASC-PPMI measures association strength more generally. We use XPASC to analyze KnowMAN, an adversarial architecture intended to control the degree of generalization from the labeling functions and thus to mitigate the problem of overfitting. On one hand, we show that KnowMAN is able to control the degree of generalization through a hyperparameter. On the other hand, results and qualitative analysis show that generalization and performance do not relate one-to-one, and that the highest degree of generalization does not necessarily imply the best performance. Therefore methods that allow for controlling the amount of generalization can achieve the right degree of benign overfitting. Our contributions in this study are i) the XPASC score to measure generalization in weakly-supervised models, ii) evaluation of XPASC across datasets and models and iii) the release of the XPASC implementation.

The SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus is the cause of the COVID-19 disease in humans. Like many coronaviruses, it can adapt to different hosts and evolve into different lineages. It is well-known that the major SARS-CoV-2 lineages are characterized by mutations that happen predominantly in the spike protein. Understanding the spike protein structure and how it can be perturbed is vital for understanding and determining if a lineage is of concern. These are crucial to identifying and controlling current outbreaks and preventing future pandemics. Machine learning (ML) methods are a viable solution to this effort, given the volume of available sequencing data, much of which is unaligned or even unassembled. However, such ML methods require fixed-length numerical feature vectors in Euclidean space to be applicable. Similarly, euclidean space is not considered the best choice when working with the classification and clustering tasks for biological sequences. For this purpose, we design a method that converts the protein (spike) sequences into the sequence similarity network (SSN). We can then use SSN as an input for the classical algorithms from the graph mining domain for the typical tasks such as classification and clustering to understand the data. We show that the proposed alignment-free method is able to outperform the current SOTA method in terms of clustering results. Similarly, we are able to achieve higher classification accuracy using well-known Node2Vec-based embedding compared to other baseline embedding approaches.

Contact matrices are an important ingredient in age-structured epidemic models to inform the simulated spread of the disease between sub-groups of the population. These matrices are generally derived using resource-intensive diary-based surveys and few exist in the Global South or tailored to vulnerable populations. In particular, no contact matrices exist for refugee settlements - locations under-served by epidemic models in general. In this paper we present a novel, mixed-method approach, for deriving contact matrices in populations which combines a lightweight, rapidly deployable, survey with an agent-based model of the population informed by census and behavioural data. We use this method to derive the first set of contact matrices for the Cox's Bazar refugee settlement in Bangladesh. The matrices from the refugee settlement show strong banding effects due to different age cut-offs in attendance at certain venues, such as distribution centres and religious sites, as well as the important contribution of the demographic profile of the settlement which was encoded in the model. These can have significant implications to the modelled disease dynamics. To validate our approach, we also apply our method to the population of the UK and compare our derived matrices against well-known contact matrices previously collected using traditional approaches. Overall, our findings demonstrate that our mixed-method approach can address some of the challenges of both the traditional and previously proposed agent-based approaches to deriving contact matrices, and has the potential to be rolled-out in other resource-constrained environments. This work therefore contributes to a broader aim of developing new methods and mechanisms of data collection for modelling disease spread in refugee and IDP settlements and better serving these vulnerable communities.

Numerical reasoning over hybrid data containing tables and long texts has recently received research attention from the AI community. To generate an executable reasoning program consisting of math and table operations to answer a question, state-of-the-art methods use a retriever-generator pipeline. However, their retrieval results are static, while different generation steps may rely on different sentences. To attend to the retrieved information that is relevant to each generation step, in this paper, we propose DyRRen, an extended retriever-reranker-generator framework where each generation step is enhanced by a dynamic reranking of retrieved sentences. It outperforms existing baselines on the FinQA dataset.

Participatory Artificial Intelligence (PAI) has recently gained interest by researchers as means to inform the design of technology through collective's lived experience. PAI has a greater promise than that of providing useful input to developers, it can contribute to the process of democratizing the design of technology, setting the focus on what should be designed. However, in the process of PAI there existing institutional power dynamics that hinder the realization of expansive dreams and aspirations of the relevant stakeholders. In this work we propose co-design principals for AI that address institutional power dynamics focusing on Participatory AI with youth.

How do author perceptions match up to the outcomes of the peer-review process and perceptions of others? In a top-tier computer science conference (NeurIPS 2021) with more than 23,000 submitting authors and 9,000 submitted papers, we survey the authors on three questions: (i) their predicted probability of acceptance for each of their papers, (ii) their perceived ranking of their own papers based on scientific contribution, and (iii) the change in their perception about their own papers after seeing the reviews. The salient results are: (1) Authors have roughly a three-fold overestimate of the acceptance probability of their papers: The median prediction is 70% for an approximately 25% acceptance rate. (2) Female authors exhibit a marginally higher (statistically significant) miscalibration than male authors; predictions of authors invited to serve as meta-reviewers or reviewers are similarly calibrated, but better than authors who were not invited to review. (3) Authors' relative ranking of scientific contribution of two submissions they made generally agree (93%) with their predicted acceptance probabilities, but there is a notable 7% responses where authors think their better paper will face a worse outcome. (4) The author-provided rankings disagreed with the peer-review decisions about a third of the time; when co-authors ranked their jointly authored papers, co-authors disagreed at a similar rate -- about a third of the time. (5) At least 30% of respondents of both accepted and rejected papers said that their perception of their own paper improved after the review process. The stakeholders in peer review should take these findings into account in setting their expectations from peer review.

Probabilistic circuits (PCs) are a tractable representation of probability distributions allowing for exact and efficient computation of likelihoods and marginals. There has been significant recent progress on improving the scale and expressiveness of PCs. However, PC training performance plateaus as model size increases. We discover that most capacity in existing large PC structures is wasted: fully-connected parameter layers are only sparsely used. We propose two operations: pruning and growing, that exploit the sparsity of PC structures. Specifically, the pruning operation removes unimportant sub-networks of the PC for model compression and comes with theoretical guarantees. The growing operation increases model capacity by increasing the size of the latent space. By alternatingly applying pruning and growing, we increase the capacity that is meaningfully used, allowing us to significantly scale up PC learning. Empirically, our learner achieves state-of-the-art likelihoods on MNIST-family image datasets and on Penn Tree Bank language data compared to other PC learners and less tractable deep generative models such as flow-based models and variational autoencoders (VAEs).