Africa
Pyrocast: a Machine Learning Pipeline to Forecast Pyrocumulonimbus (PyroCb) Clouds
Tazi, Kenza, Salas-Porras, Emiliano Díaz, Braude, Ashwin, Okoh, Daniel, Lamb, Kara D., Watson-Parris, Duncan, Harder, Paula, Meinert, Nis
Pyrocumulonimbus (pyroCb) clouds are storm clouds generated by extreme wildfires. PyroCbs are associated with unpredictable, and therefore dangerous, wildfire spread. They can also inject smoke particles and trace gases into the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere, affecting the Earth's climate. As global temperatures increase, these previously rare events are becoming more common. Being able to predict which fires are likely to generate pyroCb is therefore key to climate adaptation in wildfire-prone areas. This paper introduces Pyrocast, a pipeline for pyroCb analysis and forecasting. The pipeline's first two components, a pyroCb database and a pyroCb forecast model, are presented. The database brings together geostationary imagery and environmental data for over 148 pyroCb events across North America, Australia, and Russia between 2018 and 2022. Random Forests, Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs), and CNNs pretrained with Auto-Encoders were tested to predict the generation of pyroCb for a given fire six hours in advance. The best model predicted pyroCb with an AUC of $0.90 \pm 0.04$.
Big Earth Data and Machine Learning for Sustainable and Resilient Agriculture
Big streams of Earth images from satellites or other platforms (e.g., drones and mobile phones) are becoming increasingly available at low or no cost and with enhanced spatial and temporal resolution. This thesis recognizes the unprecedented opportunities offered by the high quality and open access Earth observation data of our times and introduces novel machine learning and big data methods to properly exploit them towards developing applications for sustainable and resilient agriculture. The thesis addresses three distinct thematic areas, i.e., the monitoring of the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP), the monitoring of food security and applications for smart and resilient agriculture. The methodological innovations of the developments related to the three thematic areas address the following issues: i) the processing of big Earth Observation (EO) data, ii) the scarcity of annotated data for machine learning model training and iii) the gap between machine learning outputs and actionable advice. This thesis demonstrated how big data technologies such as data cubes, distributed learning, linked open data and semantic enrichment can be used to exploit the data deluge and extract knowledge to address real user needs. Furthermore, this thesis argues for the importance of semi-supervised and unsupervised machine learning models that circumvent the ever-present challenge of scarce annotations and thus allow for model generalization in space and time. Specifically, it is shown how merely few ground truth data are needed to generate high quality crop type maps and crop phenology estimations. Finally, this thesis argues there is considerable distance in value between model inferences and decision making in real-world scenarios and thereby showcases the power of causal and interpretable machine learning in bridging this gap.
US Army tests DRONES to deliver blood and medical supplies in dangerous battlefield situations
The US Army tested drones to deliver medical supplies during dangerous battlefield scenarios to wounded warriors. During a recent training exercise in California led by the US with militaries of other nations, drones dropped simulated blood and other crucial medical supplies to soldiers as part of Project Crimson. This type of technology would be deployed in circumstances where it wouldn't be safe to send people on foot for help. The drone is a vertical landing and take-off aircraft, so it does not need a runway or catapult launch to perform this life-saving missions, according to the Army. That feature allows soldiers to preserve life in the early phase immediately after an injury and help to facilitate transportation to an Army hospital.
Drone Mapping in Mozambique Helps Find Flood Victims, with AI Assistance
The Mozambique National Institute for Disaster Management and Risk Reduction (INGD) and World Food Programme (WFP) built the case for drones' capacity to give all responders an accurate picture of cyclone damage and flooding extent. Two back-to-back cyclones battered Mozambique in 2019, destroying more than 800,000 hectares of farmland during harvest season. The devastation to crops and livelihoods left nearly two million people facing acute food insecurity. The United Nations (UN) World Food Programme (WFP) responded quickly, with two helicopters to ferry supplies and rescue stranded people. Given flooded roads, the air support was crucial but not nearly enough to distribute food and find stranded people across such a wide area of impact.
Here is our AI robot Kashef with today's World Cup predictions
Kashef, our artificial intelligence (AI) predictor, is to the 2022 World Cup what Paul the Octopus was to the 2010 edition. Kashef has been playing with historical data and performance to predict the results of each game, all the way to the final. Kashef is predicting a win for England this afternoon. Good start to Harry Kane's team if things go according to Kashef's plans. The European team to come out on top in the second match of the day as well, says Kashef.
LSTM based models stability in the context of Sentiment Analysis for social media
Haddaoui, Bousselham El, Chiheb, Raddouane, Faizi, Rdouan, Afia, Abdellatif El
Deep learning techniques have proven their effectiveness for Sentiment Analysis (SA) related tasks. Recurrent neural networks (RNN), especially Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) and Bidirectional LSTM, have become a reference for building accurate predictive models. However, the models complexity and the number of hyperparameters to configure raises several questions related to their stability. In this paper, we present various LSTM models and their key parameters, and we perform experiments to test the stability of these models in the context of Sentiment Analysis.
ArzEn-ST: A Three-way Speech Translation Corpus for Code-Switched Egyptian Arabic - English
Hamed, Injy, Habash, Nizar, Abdennadher, Slim, Vu, Ngoc Thang
We present our work on collecting ArzEn-ST, a code-switched Egyptian Arabic - English Speech Translation Corpus. This corpus is an extension of the ArzEn speech corpus, which was collected through informal interviews with bilingual speakers. In this work, we collect translations in both directions, monolingual Egyptian Arabic and monolingual English, forming a three-way speech translation corpus. We make the translation guidelines and corpus publicly available. We also report results for baseline systems for machine translation and speech translation tasks. We believe this is a valuable resource that can motivate and facilitate further research studying the code-switching phenomenon from a linguistic perspective and can be used to train and evaluate NLP systems.
Contextual Bandits in a Survey Experiment on Charitable Giving: Within-Experiment Outcomes versus Policy Learning
Athey, Susan, Byambadalai, Undral, Hadad, Vitor, Krishnamurthy, Sanath Kumar, Leung, Weiwen, Williams, Joseph Jay
We design and implement an adaptive experiment (a ``contextual bandit'') to learn a targeted treatment assignment policy, where the goal is to use a participant's survey responses to determine which charity to expose them to in a donation solicitation. The design balances two competing objectives: optimizing the outcomes for the subjects in the experiment (``cumulative regret minimization'') and gathering data that will be most useful for policy learning, that is, for learning an assignment rule that will maximize welfare if used after the experiment (``simple regret minimization''). We evaluate alternative experimental designs by collecting pilot data and then conducting a simulation study. Next, we implement our selected algorithm. Finally, we perform a second simulation study anchored to the collected data that evaluates the benefits of the algorithm we chose. Our first result is that the value of a learned policy in this setting is higher when data is collected via a uniform randomization rather than collected adaptively using standard cumulative regret minimization or policy learning algorithms. We propose a simple heuristic for adaptive experimentation that improves upon uniform randomization from the perspective of policy learning at the expense of increasing cumulative regret relative to alternative bandit algorithms. The heuristic modifies an existing contextual bandit algorithm by (i) imposing a lower bound on assignment probabilities that decay slowly so that no arm is discarded too quickly, and (ii) after adaptively collecting data, restricting policy learning to select from arms where sufficient data has been gathered.
A Survey on Backdoor Attack and Defense in Natural Language Processing
Sheng, Xuan, Han, Zhaoyang, Li, Piji, Chang, Xiangmao
Deep learning is becoming increasingly popular in real-life applications, especially in natural language processing (NLP). Users often choose training outsourcing or adopt third-party data and models due to data and computation resources being limited. In such a situation, training data and models are exposed to the public. As a result, attackers can manipulate the training process to inject some triggers into the model, which is called backdoor attack. Backdoor attack is quite stealthy and difficult to be detected because it has little inferior influence on the model's performance for the clean samples. To get a precise grasp and understanding of this problem, in this paper, we conduct a comprehensive review of backdoor attacks and defenses in the field of NLP. Besides, we summarize benchmark datasets and point out the open issues to design credible systems to defend against backdoor attacks.
Parametric information geometry with the package Geomstats
Brigant, Alice Le, Deschamps, Jules, Collas, Antoine, Miolane, Nina
We introduce the information geometry module of the Python package Geomstats. The module first implements Fisher-Rao Riemannian manifolds of widely used parametric families of probability distributions, such as normal, gamma, beta, Dirichlet distributions, and more. The module further gives the Fisher-Rao Riemannian geometry of any parametric family of distributions of interest, given a parameterized probability density function as input. The implemented Riemannian geometry tools allow users to compare, average, interpolate between distributions inside a given family. Importantly, such capabilities open the door to statistics and machine learning on probability distributions. We present the object-oriented implementation of the module along with illustrative examples and show how it can be used to perform learning on manifolds of parametric probability distributions.