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Financial Distress Prediction For Small And Medium Enterprises Using Machine Learning Techniques

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Financial Distress Prediction plays a crucial role in the economy by accurately forecasting the number and probability of failing structures, providing insight into the growth and stability of a country's economy. However, predicting financial distress for Small and Medium Enterprises is challenging due to their inherent ambiguity, leading to increased funding costs and decreased chances of receiving funds. While several strategies have been developed for effective FCP, their implementation, accuracy, and data security fall short of practical applications. Additionally, many of these strategies perform well for a portion of the dataset but are not adaptable to various datasets. As a result, there is a need to develop a productive prediction model for better order execution and adaptability to different datasets. In this review, we propose a feature selection algorithm for FCP based on element credits and data source collection. Current financial distress prediction models rely mainly on financial statements and disregard the timeliness of organization tests. Therefore, we propose a corporate FCP model that better aligns with industry practice and incorporates the gathering of thin-head component analysis of financial data, corporate governance qualities, and market exchange data with a Relevant Vector Machine. Experimental results demonstrate that this strategy can improve the forecast efficiency of financial distress with fewer characteristic factors.


Words are all you need? Language as an approximation for human similarity judgments

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Human similarity judgments are a powerful supervision signal for machine learning applications based on techniques such as contrastive learning, information retrieval, and model alignment, but classical methods for collecting human similarity judgments are too expensive to be used at scale. Recent methods propose using pre-trained deep neural networks (DNNs) to approximate human similarity, but pre-trained DNNs may not be available for certain domains (e.g., medical images, low-resource languages) and their performance in approximating human similarity has not been extensively tested. We conducted an evaluation of 611 pre-trained models across three domains -- images, audio, video -- and found that there is a large gap in performance between human similarity judgments and pre-trained DNNs. To address this gap, we propose a new class of similarity approximation methods based on language. To collect the language data required by these new methods, we also developed and validated a novel adaptive tag collection pipeline. We find that our proposed language-based methods are significantly cheaper, in the number of human judgments, than classical methods, but still improve performance over the DNN-based methods. Finally, we also develop `stacked' methods that combine language embeddings with DNN embeddings, and find that these consistently provide the best approximations for human similarity across all three of our modalities. Based on the results of this comprehensive study, we provide a concise guide for researchers interested in collecting or approximating human similarity data. To accompany this guide, we also release all of the similarity and language data, a total of 206,339 human judgments, that we collected in our experiments, along with a detailed breakdown of all modeling results.


Streaming probabilistic tensor train decomposition

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Effective numerical techniques, such as CANDECOMP/PARAFAC (CP) decomposition [10, 11, 12] and Tucker decomposition [13, 14] are the most commonly used tensor decomposition approaches and have been proposed to compress full tensors and to obtain their low-rank representations. CP decomposition approximates a tensor by a sum of rank-one tensors, while Tucker decomposition decomposes a tensor into a core tensor and several factor matrices. Since CP decomposition can be seen as a special case of Tucker decomposition [15], Tucker decomposition is more flexible than CP decomposition. However, due to the existence of a core tensor, Tucker decomposition also brings challenges in both modeling and computation. In this paper, we mainly focus on Tensor Train (TT) decomposition [16], which combines the advantages of CP and Tucker decomposition, because it provides a space-saving model called TT format while preserving the representation power. This paper is interested in the decomposition of streaming data. Due to the stress on database capacity and privacy, streaming data is generated continuously by different of data sources and in small sizes, such as log files from web application [17] and information from social networks [18]. Recently, several works decompose fast streaming data, e.g.


Extracting Victim Counts from Text

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Decision-makers in the humanitarian sector rely on timely and exact information during crisis events. Knowing how many civilians were injured during an earthquake is vital to allocate aids properly. Information about such victim counts is often only available within full-text event descriptions from newspapers and other reports. Extracting numbers from text is challenging: numbers have different formats and may require numeric reasoning. This renders purely string matching-based approaches insufficient. As a consequence, fine-grained counts of injured, displaced, or abused victims beyond fatalities are often not extracted and remain unseen. We cast victim count extraction as a question answering (QA) task with a regression or classification objective. We compare regex, dependency parsing, semantic role labeling-based approaches, and advanced text-to-text models. Beyond model accuracy, we analyze extraction reliability and robustness which are key for this sensitive task. In particular, we discuss model calibration and investigate few-shot and out-of-distribution performance. Ultimately, we make a comprehensive recommendation on which model to select for different desiderata and data domains. Our work is among the first to apply numeracy-focused large language models in a real-world use case with a positive impact.


MetaLDC: Meta Learning of Low-Dimensional Computing Classifiers for Fast On-Device Adaption

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Fast model updates for unseen tasks on intelligent edge devices are crucial but also challenging due to the limited computational power. In this paper,we propose MetaLDC, which meta-trains braininspired ultra-efficient low-dimensional computing classifiers to enable fast adaptation on tiny devices with minimal computational costs. Concretely, during the meta-training stage, MetaLDC meta trains a representation offline by explicitly taking into account that the final (binary) class layer will be fine-tuned for fast adaptation for unseen tasks on tiny devices; during the meta-testing stage, MetaLDC uses closed-form gradients of the loss function to enable fast adaptation of the class layer. Unlike traditional neural networks, MetaLDC is designed based on the emerging LDC framework to enable ultra-efficient on-device inference. Our experiments have demonstrated that compared to SOTA baselines, MetaLDC achieves higher accuracy, robustness against random bit errors, as well as cost-efficient hardware computation.


Improved Training of Mixture-of-Experts Language GANs

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Despite the dramatic success in image generation, Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs) still face great challenges in synthesizing sequences of discrete elements, in particular human language. The difficulty in generator training arises from the limited representation capacity and uninformative learning signals obtained from the discriminator. In this work, we (1) first empirically show that the mixture-of-experts approach is able to enhance the representation capacity of the generator for language GANs and (2) harness the Feature Statistics Alignment (FSA) paradigm to render fine-grained learning signals to advance the generator training. Specifically, FSA forces the mean statistics of the distribution of fake data to approach that of real samples as close as possible in the finite-dimensional feature space. Empirical study on synthetic and real benchmarks shows the superior performance in quantitative evaluation and demonstrates the effectiveness of our approach to adversarial text generation.


Black-box Prompt Learning for Pre-trained Language Models

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

In this paper, we establish a Black-box Discrete Prompt Learning (BDPL) to resonate with pragmatic interactions between the cloud infrastructure and edge devices. Particularly, instead of fine-tuning the model in the cloud, we adapt PLMs by prompt learning, which efficiently optimizes only a few parameters of the discrete prompts. Moreover, we consider the scenario that we do not have access to the parameters and gradients of the pre-trained models, except for its outputs given inputs. This black-box setting secures the cloud infrastructure from potential attack and misuse to cause a single-point failure, which is preferable to the white-box counterpart by current infrastructures. Under this black-box constraint, we apply a variance-reduced policy gradient algorithm to estimate the gradients of parameters in the categorical distribution of each discrete prompt. In light of our method, the user devices can efficiently tune their tasks by querying the PLMs bounded by a range of API calls. Our experiments on RoBERTa and GPT-3 demonstrate that the proposed algorithm achieves significant improvement on eight benchmarks in a cloud-device collaboration manner. Finally, we conduct in-depth case studies to comprehensively analyze our method in terms of various data sizes, prompt lengths, training budgets, optimization objectives, prompt transferability, and explanations of the learned prompts.


A Statistical Learning Take on the Concordance Index for Survival Analysis

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The introduction of machine learning (ML) techniques to the field of survival analysis has increased the flexibility of modeling approaches, and ML based models have become state-of-the-art. These models optimize their own cost functions, and their performance is often evaluated using the concordance index (C-index). From a statistical learning perspective, it is therefore an important problem to analyze the relationship between the optimizers of the C-index and those of the ML cost functions. We address this issue by providing C-index Fisher-consistency results and excess risk bounds for several of the commonly used cost functions in survival analysis. We identify conditions under which they are consistent, under the form of three nested families of survival models. We also study the general case where no model assumption is made and present a new, off-the-shelf method that is shown to be consistent with the C-index, although computationally expensive at inference. Finally, we perform limited numerical experiments with simulated data to illustrate our theoretical findings.


All you must know about Crowdvocate - BaseAI

#artificialintelligence

During my years in the financial industry at one of the top-tier banks in Nigeria, I became accustomed to many banking jargons and was exposed to new perspectives on business processes and funding. One of those words I learned was "crowdfunding." It was likened to a new escape route where I considered business enthusiasts and visionaries could share their business plan with certain people, whereby they would part with or invest a bit of money into the business. Several businesses enjoyed this initiative. Well, it's another day in the learning curve of life, and I recently came across another similar word called "crowdvocate."


AI In Pharma Market Size, Trends and Global Forecast To 2032

#artificialintelligence

AI in pharma refers to the use of automated algorithms to jobs that normally need human intelligence. Large datasets including disease patterns can be successfully identified by AI solutions in pharma, and they can also assist in understanding which medication formulations would be most effective for treating certain ailments. The artificial intelligence (AI) in the pharma market covered in the report is segmented by technology into context-aware processing, natural language processing, querying method, and deep learning; by drug type into the small molecule, large molecules; by application into diagnosis, clinical trial research, drug discovery, research and development, epidemic prediction. The artificial intelligence (AI) in pharma market research report is one of a series of new reports from The Business Research Company that provides artificial intelligence (AI) in pharma market statistics, including artificial intelligence (AI) in pharma industry global market size, regional shares, competitors with artificial intelligence (AI) in pharma market share, detailed artificial intelligence (AI) in pharma market segments, market trends and opportunities, and any further data you may need to thrive in the artificial intelligence (AI) in pharma industry. This artificial intelligence (AI) in pharma market research report delivers a complete perspective of everything you need, with an in-depth analysis of the current and future scenario of the industry.