The increasing intensity and frequency of floods is one of the many consequences of our changing climate. In this work, we explore ML techniques that improve the flood detection module of an operational early flood warning system. Our method exploits an unlabelled dataset of paired multi-spectral and Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery to reduce the labeling requirements of a purely supervised learning method. Prior works have used unlabelled data by creating weak labels out of them. However, from our experiments we noticed that such a model still ends up learning the label mistakes in those weak labels. Motivated by knowledge distillation and semi supervised learning, we explore the use of a teacher to train a student with the help of a small hand labelled dataset and a large unlabelled dataset. Unlike the conventional self distillation setup, we propose a cross modal distillation framework that transfers supervision from a teacher trained on richer modality (multi-spectral images) to a student model trained on SAR imagery. The trained models are then tested on the Sen1Floods11 dataset. Our model outperforms the Sen1Floods11 baseline model trained on the weak labeled SAR imagery by an absolute margin of 6.53% Intersection-over-Union (IoU) on the test split.

This open access book provides a comprehensive overview of the state of the art in research and applications of Foundation Models and is intended for readers familiar with basic Natural Language Processing (NLP) concepts. Over the recent years, a revolutionary new paradigm has been developed for training models for NLP. These models are first pre-trained on large collections of text documents to acquire general syntactic knowledge and semantic information. Then, they are fine-tuned for specific tasks, which they can often solve with superhuman accuracy. When the models are large enough, they can be instructed by prompts to solve new tasks without any fine-tuning. Moreover, they can be applied to a wide range of different media and problem domains, ranging from image and video processing to robot control learning. Because they provide a blueprint for solving many tasks in artificial intelligence, they have been called Foundation Models. After a brief introduction to basic NLP models the main pre-trained language models BERT, GPT and sequence-to-sequence transformer are described, as well as the concepts of self-attention and context-sensitive embedding. Then, different approaches to improving these models are discussed, such as expanding the pre-training criteria, increasing the length of input texts, or including extra knowledge. An overview of the best-performing models for about twenty application areas is then presented, e.g., question answering, translation, story generation, dialog systems, generating images from text, etc. For each application area, the strengths and weaknesses of current models are discussed, and an outlook on further developments is given. In addition, links are provided to freely available program code. A concluding chapter summarizes the economic opportunities, mitigation of risks, and potential developments of AI.

We propose a new Tipping Point Generative Adversarial Network (TIP-GAN) for better characterizing potential climate tipping points in Earth system models. We describe an adversarial game to explore the parameter space of these models, detect upcoming tipping points, and discover the drivers of tipping points. In this setup, a set of generators learn to construct model configurations that will invoke a climate tipping point. The discriminator learns to identify which generators are generating each model configuration and whether a given configuration will lead to a tipping point. The discriminator is trained using an oracle (a surrogate climate model) to test if a generated model configuration leads to a tipping point or not. We demonstrate the application of this GAN to invoke the collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). We share experimental results of modifying the loss functions and the number of generators to exploit the area of uncertainty in model state space near a climate tipping point. In addition, we show that our trained discriminator can predict AMOC collapse with a high degree of accuracy without the use of the oracle. This approach could generalize to other tipping points, and could augment climate modeling research by directing users interested in studying tipping points to parameter sets likely to induce said tipping points in their computationally intensive climate models.

Although Deep Learning (DL) has achieved success in complex Artificial Intelligence (AI) tasks, it suffers from various notorious problems (e.g., feature redundancy, and vanishing or exploding gradients), since updating parameters in Euclidean space cannot fully exploit the geometric structure of the solution space. As a promising alternative solution, Riemannian-based DL uses geometric optimization to update parameters on Riemannian manifolds and can leverage the underlying geometric information. Accordingly, this article presents a comprehensive survey of applying geometric optimization in DL. At first, this article introduces the basic procedure of the geometric optimization, including various geometric optimizers and some concepts of Riemannian manifold. Subsequently, this article investigates the application of geometric optimization in different DL networks in various AI tasks, e.g., convolution neural network, recurrent neural network, transfer learning, and optimal transport. Additionally, typical public toolboxes that implement optimization on manifold are also discussed. Finally, this article makes a performance comparison between different deep geometric optimization methods under image recognition scenarios.

Large language models (LLMs) have shown impressive performance on complex reasoning by leveraging chain-of-thought (CoT) prompting to generate intermediate reasoning chains as the rationale to infer the answer. However, existing CoT studies have focused on the language modality. We propose Multimodal-CoT that incorporates language (text) and vision (images) modalities into a two-stage framework that separates rationale generation and answer inference. In this way, answer inference can leverage better generated rationales that are based on multimodal information. With Multimodal-CoT, our model under 1 billion parameters outperforms the previous state-of-the-art LLM (GPT-3.5) by 16 percentage points (75.17%->91.68% accuracy) on the ScienceQA benchmark and even surpasses human performance. Code is publicly available available at https://github.com/amazon-science/mm-cot.

Machine translation (MT) requires a wide range of linguistic capabilities, which current end-to-end models are expected to learn implicitly by observing aligned sentences in bilingual corpora. In this work, we ask: \emph{How well do MT models learn coreference resolution from implicit signal?} To answer this question, we develop an evaluation methodology that derives coreference clusters from MT output and evaluates them without requiring annotations in the target language. We further evaluate several prominent open-source and commercial MT systems, translating from English to six target languages, and compare them to state-of-the-art coreference resolvers on three challenging benchmarks. Our results show that the monolingual resolvers greatly outperform MT models. Motivated by this result, we experiment with different methods for incorporating the output of coreference resolution models in MT, showing improvement over strong baselines.

Thanks to rapid progress in artificial intelligence, we have entered an era when technology and philosophy intersect in interesting ways. Sitting squarely at the centre of this intersection are large language models (LLMs). The more adept LLMs become at mimicking human language, the more vulnerable we become to anthropomorphism, to seeing the systems in which they are embedded as more human-like than they really are. This trend is amplified by the natural tendency to use philosophically loaded terms, such as "knows", "believes", and "thinks", when describing these systems. To mitigate this trend, this paper advocates the practice of repeatedly stepping back to remind ourselves of how LLMs, and the systems of which they form a part, actually work. The hope is that increased scientific precision will encourage more philosophical nuance in the discourse around artificial intelligence, both within the field and in the public sphere.

Entities and events are crucial to natural language reasoning and common in procedural texts. Existing work has focused either exclusively on entity state tracking (e.g., whether a pan is hot) or on event reasoning (e.g., whether one would burn themselves by touching the pan), while these two tasks are often causally related. We propose CREPE, the first benchmark on causal reasoning of event plausibility and entity states. We show that most language models, including GPT-3, perform close to chance at .35 F1, lagging far behind human at .87 F1. We boost model performance to .59 F1 by creatively representing events as programming languages while prompting language models pretrained on code. By injecting the causal relations between entities and events as intermediate reasoning steps in our representation, we further boost the performance to .67 F1. Our findings indicate not only the challenge that CREPE brings for language models, but also the efficacy of code-like prompting combined with chain-of-thought prompting for multihop event reasoning.

Personalized prediction of responses for individual entities caused by external drivers is vital across many disciplines. Recent machine learning (ML) advances have led to new state-of-the-art response prediction models. Models built at a population level often lead to sub-optimal performance in many personalized prediction settings due to heterogeneity in data across entities (tasks). In personalized prediction, the goal is to incorporate inherent characteristics of different entities to improve prediction performance. In this survey, we focus on the recent developments in the ML community for such entity-aware modeling approaches. ML algorithms often modulate the network using these entity characteristics when they are readily available. However, these entity characteristics are not readily available in many real-world scenarios, and different ML methods have been proposed to infer these characteristics from the data. In this survey, we have organized the current literature on entity-aware modeling based on the availability of these characteristics as well as the amount of training data. We highlight how recent innovations in other disciplines, such as uncertainty quantification, fairness, and knowledge-guided machine learning, can improve entity-aware modeling.

High-dimensional data in the form of tensors are challenging for kernel classification methods. To both reduce the computational complexity and extract informative features, kernels based on low-rank tensor decompositions have been proposed. However, what decisive features of the tensors are exploited by these kernels is often unclear. In this paper we propose a novel kernel that is based on the Tucker decomposition. For this kernel the Tucker factors are computed based on re-weighting of the Tucker matrices with tuneable powers of singular values from the HOSVD decomposition. This provides a mechanism to balance the contribution of the Tucker core and factors of the data. We benchmark support tensor machines with this new kernel on several datasets. First we generate synthetic data where two classes differ in either Tucker factors or core, and compare our novel and previously existing kernels. We show robustness of the new kernel with respect to both classification scenarios. We further test the new method on real-world datasets. The proposed kernel has demonstrated a higher test accuracy than the state-of-the-art tensor train multi-way multi-level kernel, and a significantly lower computational time.