Artificial intelligence in some shape or form has been a part of everyday life for years, but the meteoric rise of ChatGPT and the resulting aggressive development pace of conversational and generative AI models is, for the first time ever, putting the underlying technology into the hands of the general public. Even though current large language models are primarily able to guess the best-fitting next word in a sentence based on the corpus of content they were fed, CEOs, researchers and AI experts are now urging the industry to pump the brakes on training and developing models more capable than OpenAI's GPT-4. The company's latest large language model is currently available in a limited capacity for ChatGPT Plus subscribers and will soon be integrated into Microsoft productivity and security products. According to an open letter signed by influential figures like Elon Musk and Stability AI CEO Emad Mostaque, « powerful AI systems should be developed only once we are confident that their effects will be positive and their risks will be manageable. The Musk Foundation is a primary donor to the organization.

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OpenAI's GPT-4 is a Large Language Model (LLM) that can generate coherent constructed languages, or "conlangs," which we propose be called "genlangs" when generated by Artificial Intelligence (AI). The genlangs created by ChatGPT for this research (Voxphera, Vivenzia, and Lumivoxa) each have unique features, appear facially coherent, and plausibly "translate" into English. This study investigates whether genlangs created by ChatGPT follow Zipf's law. Zipf's law approximately holds across all natural and artificially constructed human languages. According to Zipf's law, the word frequencies in a text corpus are inversely proportional to their rank in the frequency table. This means that the most frequent word appears about twice as often as the second most frequent word, three times as often as the third most frequent word, and so on. We hypothesize that Zipf's law will hold for genlangs because (1) genlangs created by ChatGPT fundamentally operate in the same way as human language with respect to the semantic usefulness of certain tokens, and (2) ChatGPT has been trained on a corpora of text that includes many different languages, all of which exhibit Zipf's law to varying degrees. Through statistical linguistics, we aim to understand if LLM-based languages statistically look human. Our findings indicate that genlangs adhere closely to Zipf's law, supporting the hypothesis that genlangs created by ChatGPT exhibit similar statistical properties to natural and artificial human languages. We also conclude that with human assistance, AI is already capable of creating the world's first fully-functional genlang, and we call for its development.

We study the fundamental question of how to define and measure the distance from calibration for probabilistic predictors. While the notion of perfect calibration is well-understood, there is no consensus on how to quantify the distance from perfect calibration. Numerous calibration measures have been proposed in the literature, but it is unclear how they compare to each other, and many popular measures such as Expected Calibration Error (ECE) fail to satisfy basic properties like continuity. We present a rigorous framework for analyzing calibration measures, inspired by the literature on property testing. We propose a ground-truth notion of distance from calibration: the $\ell_1$ distance to the nearest perfectly calibrated predictor. We define a consistent calibration measure as one that is polynomially related to this distance. Applying our framework, we identify three calibration measures that are consistent and can be estimated efficiently: smooth calibration, interval calibration, and Laplace kernel calibration. The former two give quadratic approximations to the ground truth distance, which we show is information-theoretically optimal in a natural model for measuring calibration which we term the prediction-only access model. Our work thus establishes fundamental lower and upper bounds on measuring the distance to calibration, and also provides theoretical justification for preferring certain metrics (like Laplace kernel calibration) in practice.

This paper introduces RiskCards, a framework for structured assessment and documentation of risks associated with an application of language models. As with all language, text generated by language models can be harmful, or used to bring about harm. Automating language generation adds both an element of scale and also more subtle or emergent undesirable tendencies to the generated text. Prior work establishes a wide variety of language model harms to many different actors: existing taxonomies identify categories of harms posed by language models; benchmarks establish automated tests of these harms; and documentation standards for models, tasks and datasets encourage transparent reporting. However, there is no risk-centric framework for documenting the complexity of a landscape in which some risks are shared across models and contexts, while others are specific, and where certain conditions may be required for risks to manifest as harms. RiskCards address this methodological gap by providing a generic framework for assessing the use of a given language model in a given scenario. Each RiskCard makes clear the routes for the risk to manifest harm, their placement in harm taxonomies, and example prompt-output pairs. While RiskCards are designed to be open-source, dynamic and participatory, we present a "starter set" of RiskCards taken from a broad literature survey, each of which details a concrete risk presentation. Language model RiskCards initiate a community knowledge base which permits the mapping of risks and harms to a specific model or its application scenario, ultimately contributing to a better, safer and shared understanding of the risk landscape.

As geospatial machine learning models and maps derived from their predictions are increasingly used for downstream analyses in science and policy, it is imperative to evaluate their accuracy and applicability. Geospatial machine learning has key distinctions from other learning paradigms, and as such, the correct way to measure performance of spatial machine learning outputs has been a topic of debate. In this paper, I delineate unique challenges of model evaluation for geospatial machine learning with global or remotely sensed datasets, culminating in concrete takeaways to improve evaluations of geospatial model performance. Geospatial machine learning (ML), for example with remotely sensed data, is being used across consequential domains, including public health (Nilsen et al., 2021; Draidi Areed et al., 2022) conservation (Sofaer et al., 2019), food security (Nakalembe, 2018), and wealth estimation (Jean et al., 2016; Chi et al., 2022). By both their use and their very nature, geospatial predictions have a purpose beyond model benchmarking; mapped data are to be read, scrutinized, and acted upon.

This paper presents a review of the field of reinforcement learning (RL), with a focus on providing a comprehensive overview of the key concepts, techniques, and algorithms for beginners. RL has a unique setting, jargon, and mathematics that can be intimidating for those new to the field or artificial intelligence more broadly. While many papers review RL in the context of specific applications, such as games, healthcare, finance, or robotics, these papers can be difficult for beginners to follow due to the inclusion of non-RL-related work and the use of algorithms customized to those specific applications. To address these challenges, this paper provides a clear and concise overview of the fundamental principles of RL and covers the different types of RL algorithms. For each algorithm/method, we outline the main motivation behind its development, its inner workings, and its limitations. The presentation of the paper is aligned with the historical progress of the field, from the early 1980s Q-learning algorithm to the current state-of-the-art algorithms such as TD3, PPO, and offline RL. Overall, this paper aims to serve as a valuable resource for beginners looking to construct a solid understanding of the fundamentals of RL and be aware of the historical progress of the field. It is intended to be a go-to reference for those interested in learning about RL without being distracted by the details of specific applications.

Sound correspondence patterns form the basis of cognate detection and phonological reconstruction in historical language comparison. Methods for the automatic inference of correspondence patterns from phonetically aligned cognate sets have been proposed, but their application to multilingual wordlists requires extremely well annotated datasets. Since annotation is tedious and time consuming, it would be desirable to find ways to improve aligned cognate data automatically. Taking inspiration from trimming techniques in evolutionary biology, which improve alignments by excluding problematic sites, we propose a workflow that trims phonetic alignments in comparative linguistics prior to the inference of correspondence patterns. Testing these techniques on a large standardized collection of ten datasets with expert annotations from different language families, we find that the best trimming technique substantially improves the overall consistency of the alignments. The results show a clear increase in the proportion of frequent correspondence patterns and words exhibiting regular cognate relations.

'Reincarnation' in reinforcement learning has been proposed as a formalisation of reusing prior computation from past experiments when training an agent in an environment. In this paper, we present a brief foray into the paradigm of reincarnation in the multi-agent (MA) context. We consider the case where only some agents are reincarnated, whereas the others are trained from scratch -- selective reincarnation. In the fully-cooperative MA setting with heterogeneous agents, we demonstrate that selective reincarnation can lead to higher returns than training fully from scratch, and faster convergence than training with full reincarnation. However, the choice of which agents to reincarnate in a heterogeneous system is vitally important to the outcome of the training -- in fact, a poor choice can lead to considerably worse results than the alternatives. We argue that a rich field of work exists here, and we hope that our effort catalyses further energy in bringing the topic of reincarnation to the multi-agent realm.

This paper discusses OpenAIs ChatGPT, a generative pre-trained transformer, which uses natural language processing to fulfill text-based user requests (i.e., a chatbot). The history and principles behind ChatGPT and similar models are discussed. This technology is then discussed in relation to its potential impact on academia and scholarly research and publishing. ChatGPT is seen as a potential model for the automated preparation of essays and other types of scholarly manuscripts. Potential ethical issues that could arise with the emergence of large language models like GPT-3, the underlying technology behind ChatGPT, and its usage by academics and researchers, are discussed and situated within the context of broader advancements in artificial intelligence, machine learning, and natural language processing for research and scholarly publishing.