Ben Goertzel said the sky's "not even the limit" when it comes to the potential impact of artificial general intelligence. The co-creator of the social humanoid robot Sophia says artifical general intelligence (AGI) and super AGI are mere decades away, and he warns that the subsequent disruption from these artificial intelligence (AI) models will cause a significant amount of political and economic "mayhem" before massive benefits to humanity are seen. Speaking with Fox News Digital on the global aspects of the transition from the present day to AGI, Dr. Ben Goertzel highlighted the need to develop a beneficial, compassionate super general intelligence model to ensure humanity flourishes. Often referred to as the "singularity" – the point AGI exceeds human intelligence and reasoning – humankind will be at the whim of the AI model's motivations and behaviors. AI researchers and futurologists have repeatedly said that this inflection point is still decades away. Given the current timeline of AI acceleration, Goertzel concurred with friend and computer scientist Ray Kurzweil, calling it a "fair approximation" that human-level AGI will be created around 2029.

In recent years, particle-based variational inference (ParVI) methods such as Stein variational gradient descent (SVGD) have grown in popularity as scalable methods for Bayesian inference. Unfortunately, the properties of such methods invariably depend on hyperparameters such as the learning rate, which must be carefully tuned by the practitioner in order to ensure convergence to the target measure at a suitable rate. In this paper, we introduce a suite of new particle-based methods for scalable Bayesian inference based on coin betting, which are entirely learning-rate free. We illustrate the performance of our approach on a range of numerical examples, including several high-dimensional models and datasets, demonstrating comparable performance to other ParVI algorithms with no need to tune a learning rate.

Large Language Models (LLMs) are powerful tools, capable of leveraging their training on natural language to write stories, generate code, and answer questions. But can they generate functional video game levels? Game levels, with their complex functional constraints and spatial relationships in more than one dimension, are very different from the kinds of data an LLM typically sees during training. Datasets of game levels are also hard to come by, potentially taxing the abilities of these data-hungry models. We investigate the use of LLMs to generate levels for the game Sokoban, finding that LLMs are indeed capable of doing so, and that their performance scales dramatically with dataset size. We also perform preliminary experiments on controlling LLM level generators and discuss promising areas for future work.

Multi-fidelity (gray-box) hyperparameter optimization techniques (HPO) have recently emerged as a promising direction for tuning Deep Learning methods. However, existing methods suffer from a sub-optimal allocation of the HPO budget to the hyperparameter configurations. In this work, we introduce DyHPO, a Bayesian Optimization method that learns to decide which hyperparameter configuration to train further in a dynamic race among all feasible configurations. We propose a new deep kernel for Gaussian Processes that embeds the learning curve dynamics, and an acquisition function that incorporates multi-budget information. We demonstrate the significant superiority of DyHPO against state-of-the-art hyperparameter optimization methods through large-scale experiments comprising 50 datasets (Tabular, Image, NLP) and diverse architectures (MLP, CNN/NAS, RNN).

We perform an empirical study of the behaviour of deep networks when fully linearizing some of its feature channels through a sparsity prior on the overall number of nonlinear units in the network. In experiments on image classification and machine translation tasks, we investigate how much we can simplify the network function towards linearity before performance collapses. First, we observe a significant performance gap when reducing nonlinearity in the network function early on as opposed to late in training, in-line with recent observations on the time-evolution of the data-dependent NTK. Second, we find that after training, we are able to linearize a significant number of nonlinear units while maintaining a high performance, indicating that much of a network's expressivity remains unused but helps gradient descent in early stages of training. To characterize the depth of the resulting partially linearized network, we introduce a measure called average path length, representing the average number of active nonlinearities encountered along a path in the network graph. Under sparsity pressure, we find that the remaining nonlinear units organize into distinct structures, forming core-networks of near constant effective depth and width, which in turn depend on task difficulty.

Background: Social media platforms have become a viable source of medical information, with patients and healthcare professionals using them to share health-related information and track diseases. Similarly, YouTube, the largest video-sharing platform in the world contains vlogs where individuals talk about their illnesses. The aim of our study was to investigate the use of Natural Language Processing (NLP) to identify the spoken content of YouTube vlogs related to the diagnosis of Coronavirus disease of 2019 (COVID-19) for public health screening. Methods: COVID-19 videos on YouTube were searched using relevant keywords. A total of 1000 videos being spoken in English were downloaded out of which 791 were classified as vlogs, 192 were non-vlogs, and 17 were deleted by the channel. The videos were converted into a textual format using Microsoft Streams. The textual data was preprocessed using basic and advanced preprocessing methods. A lexicon of 200 words was created which contained words related to COVID-19. The data was analyzed using topic modeling, word clouds, and lexicon matching. Results: The word cloud results revealed discussions about COVID-19 symptoms like "fever", along with generic terms such as "mask" and "isolation". Lexical analysis demonstrated that in 96.46% of videos, patients discussed generic terms, and in 95.45% of videos, people talked about COVID-19 symptoms. LDA Topic Modeling results also generated topics that successfully captured key themes and content related to our investigation of COVID-19 diagnoses in YouTube vlogs. Conclusion: By leveraging NLP techniques on YouTube vlogs public health practitioners can enhance their ability to mitigate the effects of pandemics and effectively respond to public health challenges.

Stance Detection is concerned with identifying the attitudes expressed by an author towards a target of interest. This task spans a variety of domains ranging from social media opinion identification to detecting the stance for a legal claim. However, the framing of the task varies within these domains, in terms of the data collection protocol, the label dictionary and the number of available annotations. Furthermore, these stance annotations are significantly imbalanced on a per-topic and inter-topic basis. These make multi-domain stance detection a challenging task, requiring standardization and domain adaptation. To overcome this challenge, we propose $\textbf{T}$opic $\textbf{E}$fficient $\textbf{St}$anc$\textbf{E}$ $\textbf{D}$etection (TESTED), consisting of a topic-guided diversity sampling technique and a contrastive objective that is used for fine-tuning a stance classifier. We evaluate the method on an existing benchmark of $16$ datasets with in-domain, i.e. all topics seen and out-of-domain, i.e. unseen topics, experiments. The results show that our method outperforms the state-of-the-art with an average of $3.5$ F1 points increase in-domain, and is more generalizable with an averaged increase of $10.2$ F1 on out-of-domain evaluation while using $\leq10\%$ of the training data. We show that our sampling technique mitigates both inter- and per-topic class imbalances. Finally, our analysis demonstrates that the contrastive learning objective allows the model a more pronounced segmentation of samples with varying labels.

Accurate yield forecasting is essential for making informed policies and long-term decisions for food security. Earth Observation (EO) data and machine learning algorithms play a key role in providing a comprehensive and timely view of crop conditions from field to national scales. However, machine learning algorithms' prediction accuracy is often harmed by spatial heterogeneity caused by exogenous factors not reflected in remote sensing data, such as differences in crop management strategies. In this paper, we propose and investigate a simple technique called state-wise additive bias to explicitly address the cross-region yield heterogeneity in Kazakhstan. Compared to baseline machine learning models (Random Forest, CatBoost, XGBoost), our method reduces the overall RMSE by 8.9\% and the highest state-wise RMSE by 28.37\%. The effectiveness of state-wise additive bias indicates machine learning's performance can be significantly improved by explicitly addressing the spatial heterogeneity, motivating future work on spatial-aware machine learning algorithms for yield forecasts as well as for general geospatial forecasting problems.

Arabic dialect identification (ADI) tools are an important part of the large-scale data collection pipelines necessary for training speech recognition models. As these pipelines require application of ADI tools to potentially out-of-domain data, we aim to investigate how vulnerable the tools may be to this domain shift. With self-supervised learning (SSL) models as a starting point, we evaluate transfer learning and direct classification from SSL features. We undertake our evaluation under rich conditions, with a goal to develop ADI systems from pretrained models and ultimately evaluate performance on newly collected data. In order to understand what factors contribute to model decisions, we carry out a careful human study of a subset of our data. Our analysis confirms that domain shift is a major challenge for ADI lected data to probe the limits of our transfer learning methods models. We also find that while self-training does alleviate this in a realistic data pipeline.

From administrative registers of last names in Santiago, Chile, we create a surname affinity network that encodes socioeconomic data. This network is a multi-relational graph with nodes representing surnames and edges representing the prevalence of interactions between surnames by socioeconomic decile. We model the prediction of links as a knowledge base completion problem, and find that sharing neighbors is highly predictive of the formation of new links. Importantly, We distinguish between grounded neighbors and neighbors in the embedding space, and find that the latter is more predictive of tie formation. The paper discusses the implications of this finding in explaining the high levels of elite endogamy in Santiago.