A decision can be defined as fair if equal individuals are treated equally and unequals unequally. Adopting this definition, the task of designing machine learning models that mitigate unfairness in automated decision-making systems must include causal thinking when introducing protected attributes. Following a recent proposal, we define individuals as being normatively equal if they are equal in a fictitious, normatively desired (FiND) world, where the protected attribute has no (direct or indirect) causal effect on the target. We propose rank-preserving interventional distributions to define an estimand of this FiND world and a warping method for estimation. Evaluation criteria for both the method and resulting model are presented and validated through simulations and empirical data. With this, we show that our warping approach effectively identifies the most discriminated individuals and mitigates unfairness.

Consider the spiked Wigner model \[ X = \sum_{i = 1}^k \lambda_i u_i u_i^\top + \sigma G, \] where $G$ is an $N \times N$ GOE random matrix, and the eigenvalues $\lambda_i$ are all spiked, i.e. above the Baik-Ben Arous-P\'ech\'e (BBP) threshold $\sigma$. We consider AIC-type model selection criteria of the form \[ -2 \, (\text{maximised log-likelihood}) + \gamma \, (\text{number of parameters}) \] for estimating the number $k$ of spikes. For $\gamma > 2$, the above criterion is strongly consistent provided $\lambda_k > \lambda_{\gamma}$, where $\lambda_{\gamma}$ is a threshold strictly above the BBP threshold, whereas for $\gamma < 2$, it almost surely overestimates $k$. Although AIC (which corresponds to $\gamma = 2$) is not strongly consistent, we show that taking $\gamma = 2 + \delta_N$, where $\delta_N \to 0$ and $\delta_N \gg N^{-2/3}$, results in a weakly consistent estimator of $k$. We also show that a certain soft minimiser of AIC is strongly consistent.

For more than a decade, researchers have measured progress in object recognition on ImageNet-based generalization benchmarks such as ImageNet-A, -C, and -R. Recent advances in foundation models, trained on orders of magnitude more data, have begun to saturate these standard benchmarks, but remain brittle in practice. This suggests standard benchmarks, which tend to focus on predefined or synthetic changes, may not be sufficient for measuring real world generalization. Consequently, we propose studying generalization across geography as a more realistic measure of progress using two datasets of objects from households across the globe. We conduct an extensive empirical evaluation of progress across nearly 100 vision models up to most recent foundation models. We first identify a progress gap between standard benchmarks and real-world, geographical shifts: progress on ImageNet results in up to 2.5x more progress on standard generalization benchmarks than real-world distribution shifts. Second, we study model generalization across geographies by measuring the disparities in performance across regions, a more fine-grained measure of real world generalization. We observe all models have large geographic disparities, even foundation CLIP models, with differences of 7-20% in accuracy between regions. Counter to modern intuition, we discover progress on standard benchmarks fails to improve geographic disparities and often exacerbates them: geographic disparities between the least performant models and today's best models have more than tripled. Our results suggest scaling alone is insufficient for consistent robustness to real-world distribution shifts. Finally, we highlight in early experiments how simple last layer retraining on more representative, curated data can complement scaling as a promising direction of future work, reducing geographic disparity on both benchmarks by over two-thirds.

One of the hallmark symptoms of Parkinson's Disease (PD) is the progressive loss of postural reflexes, which eventually leads to gait difficulties and balance problems. Identifying disruptions in brain function associated with gait impairment could be crucial in better understanding PD motor progression, thus advancing the development of more effective and personalized therapeutics. In this work, we present an explainable, geometric, weighted-graph attention neural network (xGW-GAT) to identify functional networks predictive of the progression of gait difficulties in individuals with PD. xGW-GAT predicts the multi-class gait impairment on the MDS Unified PD Rating Scale (MDS-UPDRS). Our computational- and data-efficient model represents functional connectomes as symmetric positive definite (SPD) matrices on a Riemannian manifold to explicitly encode pairwise interactions of entire connectomes, based on which we learn an attention mask yielding individual- and group-level explainability. Applied to our resting-state functional MRI (rs-fMRI) dataset of individuals with PD, xGW-GAT identifies functional connectivity patterns associated with gait impairment in PD and offers interpretable explanations of functional subnetworks associated with motor impairment. Our model successfully outperforms several existing methods while simultaneously revealing clinically-relevant connectivity patterns. The source code is available at https://github.com/favour-nerrise/xGW-GAT .

Polygenic risk scores (PRS) estimate the genetic risk of an individual for a complex disease based on many genetic variants across the whole genome. In this study, we compared a series of computational models for estimation of breast cancer PRS. A deep neural network (DNN) was found to outperform alternative machine learning techniques and established statistical algorithms, including BLUP, BayesA and LDpred. In the test cohort with 50% prevalence, the Area Under the receiver operating characteristic Curve (AUC) were 67.4% for DNN, 64.2% for BLUP, 64.5% for BayesA, and 62.4% for LDpred. BLUP, BayesA, and LPpred all generated PRS that followed a normal distribution in the case population. However, the PRS generated by DNN in the case population followed a bi-modal distribution composed of two normal distributions with distinctly different means. This suggests that DNN was able to separate the case population into a high-genetic-risk case sub-population with an average PRS significantly higher than the control population and a normal-genetic-risk case sub-population with an average PRS similar to the control population. This allowed DNN to achieve 18.8% recall at 90% precision in the test cohort with 50% prevalence, which can be extrapolated to 65.4% recall at 20% precision in a general population with 12% prevalence. Interpretation of the DNN model identified salient variants that were assigned insignificant p-values by association studies, but were important for DNN prediction. These variants may be associated with the phenotype through non-linear relationships.

We consider the problem of contextual bandits and imitation learning, where the learner lacks direct knowledge of the executed action's reward. Instead, the learner can actively query an expert at each round to compare two actions and receive noisy preference feedback. The learner's objective is two-fold: to minimize the regret associated with the executed actions, while simultaneously, minimizing the number of comparison queries made to the expert. In this paper, we assume that the learner has access to a function class that can represent the expert's preference model under appropriate link functions, and provide an algorithm that leverages an online regression oracle with respect to this function class for choosing its actions and deciding when to query. For the contextual bandit setting, our algorithm achieves a regret bound that combines the best of both worlds, scaling as $O(\min\{\sqrt{T}, d/\Delta\})$, where $T$ represents the number of interactions, $d$ represents the eluder dimension of the function class, and $\Delta$ represents the minimum preference of the optimal action over any suboptimal action under all contexts. Our algorithm does not require the knowledge of $\Delta$, and the obtained regret bound is comparable to what can be achieved in the standard contextual bandits setting where the learner observes reward signals at each round. Additionally, our algorithm makes only $O(\min\{T, d^2/\Delta^2\})$ queries to the expert. We then extend our algorithm to the imitation learning setting, where the learning agent engages with an unknown environment in episodes of length $H$ each, and provide similar guarantees for regret and query complexity. Interestingly, our algorithm for imitation learning can even learn to outperform the underlying expert, when it is suboptimal, highlighting a practical benefit of preference-based feedback in imitation learning.

Statistical analysis of social networks provides valuable insights into complex network interactions across various scientific disciplines. However, accurate modeling of networks remains challenging due to the heavy computational burden and the need to account for observed network dependencies. Exponential Random Graph Models (ERGMs) have emerged as a promising technique used in social network modeling to capture network dependencies by incorporating endogenous variables. Nevertheless, using ERGMs poses multiple challenges, including the occurrence of ERGM degeneracy, which generates unrealistic and meaningless network structures. To address these challenges and enhance the modeling of collaboration networks, we propose and test a novel approach that focuses on endogenous variable selection within ERGMs. Our method aims to overcome the computational burden and improve the accommodation of observed network dependencies, thereby facilitating more accurate and meaningful interpretations of network phenomena in various scientific fields. We conduct empirical testing and rigorous analysis to contribute to the advancement of statistical techniques and offer practical insights for network analysis.

Although Neural Machine Translation (NMT) has made remarkable advances (Vaswani et al., 2017), it still requires large amounts of data to induce correct generalizations that characterize human intelligence (Lake et al., 2017). However, such a vast amount of data to make robust, reliable, and fair predictions is not available for low-resource NMT (Koehn and Knowles, 2017). The generalizability of NMT has been extensively studied in prior research, revealing the volatile behaviour of translation outputs when even a single token in the source sentence is modified (Belinkov and Bisk, 2018; Fadaee and Monz, 2020; Li et al., 2021). For instance, in the sentence "smallpox killed billions of people on this planet" from our IWSLT test set, when replacing the noun "smallpox" with another acute disease like "tuberculosis", the model should ideally generate a correct translation by only modifying the relevant part while keeping the rest of the sentence unchanged. However, in many instances, such a small perturbation adversely affects the translation of the entire sentence, highlighting the limited generalization and robustness of existing NMT models (Fadaee and Monz, 2020). Compositionality is regarded as the most prominent form of generalization that embodies the ability of human intelligence to generalize to new data, tasks, and domains (Schmidhuber, 1990; Lake and Baroni, 2018), while other types mostly focus on the practical considerations across domains, tasks, and languages, model robustness, and structural generalization (Hupkes et al., 2022). Research in compositional generalization has two main aspects: evaluating the current models' compositional abilities as well as improving them.

The pebble motion on trees (PMT) problem consists in finding a feasible sequence of moves that repositions a set of pebbles to assigned target vertices. This problem has been widely studied because, in many cases, the more general Multi-Agent path finding (MAPF) problem on graphs can be reduced to PMT. We propose a simple and easy to implement procedure, which finds solutions of length O(knc + n^2), where n is the number of nodes, $k$ is the number of pebbles, and c the maximum length of corridors in the tree. This complexity result is more detailed than the current best known result O(n^3), which is equal to our result in the worst case, but does not capture the dependency on c and k.

An effective interdisciplinary study between machine learning and solar-thermal desalination requires a sufficiently large and well-analyzed experimental datasets. This study develops a modified dataset collection and analysis process for studying solar-thermal desalination by machine learning. Based on the optimized water condensation and collection process, the proposed experimental method collects over one thousand datasets, which is ten times more than the average number of datasets in previous works, by accelerating data collection and reducing the time by 83.3%. On the other hand, the effects of dataset features are investigated by using three different algorithms, including artificial neural networks, multiple linear regressions, and random forests. The investigation focuses on the effects of dataset size and range on prediction accuracy, factor importance ranking, and the model's generalization ability. The results demonstrate that a larger dataset can significantly improve prediction accuracy when using artificial neural networks and random forests. Additionally, the study highlights the significant impact of dataset size and range on ranking the importance of influence factors. Furthermore, the study reveals that the extrapolation data range significantly affects the extrapolation accuracy of artificial neural networks. Based on the results, massive dataset collection and analysis of dataset feature effects are important steps in an effective and consistent machine learning process flow for solar-thermal desalination, which can promote machine learning as a more general tool in the field of solar-thermal desalination.