Multi-object tracking (MOT) has important applications in monitoring, logistics, and other fields. This paper develops a real-time multi-object tracking and prediction system in rugged environments. A 3D object detection algorithm based on Lidar-camera fusion is designed to detect the target objects. Based on the Hungarian algorithm, this paper designs a 3D multi-object tracking algorithm with an adaptive threshold to realize the stable matching and tracking of the objects. We combine Memory Augmented Neural Networks (MANN) and Kalman filter to achieve 3D trajectory prediction on rugged terrains. Besides, we realize a new dynamic SLAM by using the results of multi-object tracking to remove dynamic points for better SLAM performance and static map. To verify the effectiveness of the proposed multi-object tracking and prediction system, several simulations and physical experiments are conducted. The results show that the proposed system can track dynamic objects and provide future trajectory and a more clean static map in real-time.

This paper examines the effectiveness of several forecasting methods for predicting inflation, focusing on aggregating disaggregated forecasts - also known in the literature as the bottom-up approach. Taking the Brazilian case as an application, we consider different disaggregation levels for inflation and employ a range of traditional time series techniques as well as linear and nonlinear machine learning (ML) models to deal with a larger number of predictors. For many forecast horizons, the aggregation of disaggregated forecasts performs just as well survey-based expectations and models that generate forecasts using the aggregate directly. Overall, ML methods outperform traditional time series models in predictive accuracy, with outstanding performance in forecasting disaggregates. Our results reinforce the benefits of using models in a data-rich environment for inflation forecasting, including aggregating disaggregated forecasts from ML techniques, mainly during volatile periods. Starting from the COVID-19 pandemic, the random forest model based on both aggregate and disaggregated inflation achieves remarkable predictive performance at intermediate and longer horizons.

In this paper, we develop new methods for analyzing high-dimensional tensor datasets. A tensor factor model describes a high-dimensional dataset as a sum of a low-rank component and an idiosyncratic noise, generalizing traditional factor models for panel data. We propose an estimation algorithm, called tensor principal component analysis (TPCA), which generalizes the traditional PCA applicable to panel data. The algorithm involves unfolding the tensor into a sequence of matrices along different dimensions and applying PCA to the unfolded matrices. We provide theoretical results on the consistency and asymptotic distribution for the TPCA estimator of loadings and factors. We also introduce a novel test for the number of factors in a tensor factor model. The TPCA and the test feature good performance in Monte Carlo experiments and are applied to sorted portfolios.

A person's gender is a crucial piece of information when performing research across a wide range of scientific disciplines, such as medicine, sociology, political science, and economics, to name a few. However, in increasing instances, especially given the proliferation of big data, gender information is not readily available. In such cases researchers need to infer gender from readily available information, primarily from persons' names. While inferring gender from name may raise some ethical questions, the lack of viable alternatives means that researchers have to resort to such approaches when the goal justifies the means - in the majority of such studies the goal is to examine patterns and determinants of gender disparities. The necessity of name-to-gender inference has generated an ever-growing domain of algorithmic approaches and software products. These approaches have been used throughout the world in academia, industry, governmental and non-governmental organizations. Nevertheless, the existing approaches have yet to be systematically evaluated and compared, making it challenging to determine the optimal approach for future research. In this work, we conducted a large scale performance evaluation of existing approaches for name-to-gender inference. Analysis are performed using a variety of large annotated datasets of names. We further propose two new hybrid approaches that achieve better performance than any single existing approach.

Despite recent availability of large transcribed Kinyarwanda speech data, achieving robust speech recognition for Kinyarwanda is still challenging. In this work, we show that using self-supervised pre-training, following a simple curriculum schedule during fine-tuning and using semi-supervised learning to leverage large unlabelled speech data significantly improve speech recognition performance for Kinyarwanda. Our approach focuses on using public domain data only. A new studio-quality speech dataset is collected from a public website, then used to train a clean baseline model. The clean baseline model is then used to rank examples from a more diverse and noisy public dataset, defining a simple curriculum training schedule. Finally, we apply semi-supervised learning to label and learn from large unlabelled data in four successive generations. Our final model achieves 3.2% word error rate (WER) on the new dataset and 15.9% WER on Mozilla Common Voice benchmark, which is state-of-the-art to the best of our knowledge. Our experiments also indicate that using syllabic rather than character-based tokenization results in better speech recognition performance for Kinyarwanda.

Machine Learning (ML) systems are vulnerable to adversarial examples, particularly those from query-based black-box attacks. Despite various efforts to detect and prevent such attacks, there is a need for a more comprehensive approach to logging, analyzing, and sharing evidence of attacks. While classic security benefits from well-established forensics and intelligence sharing, Machine Learning is yet to find a way to profile its attackers and share information about them. In response, this paper introduces SEA, a novel ML security system to characterize black-box attacks on ML systems for forensic purposes and to facilitate human-explainable intelligence sharing. SEA leverages the Hidden Markov Models framework to attribute the observed query sequence to known attacks. It thus understands the attack's progression rather than just focusing on the final adversarial examples. Our evaluations reveal that SEA is effective at attack attribution, even on their second occurrence, and is robust to adaptive strategies designed to evade forensics analysis. Interestingly, SEA's explanations of the attack behavior allow us even to fingerprint specific minor implementation bugs in attack libraries. For example, we discover that the SignOPT and Square attacks implementation in ART v1.14 sends over 50% specific zero difference queries. We thoroughly evaluate SEA on a variety of settings and demonstrate that it can recognize the same attack's second occurrence with 90+% Top-1 and 95+% Top-3 accuracy.

Early brain development is characterized by the formation of a highly organized structural connectome. The interconnected nature of this connectome underlies the brain's cognitive abilities and influences its response to diseases and environmental factors. Hence, quantitative assessment of structural connectivity in the perinatal stage is useful for studying normal and abnormal neurodevelopment. However, estimation of the connectome from diffusion MRI data involves complex computations. For the perinatal period, these computations are further challenged by the rapid brain development and imaging difficulties. Combined with high inter-subject variability, these factors make it difficult to chart the normal development of the structural connectome. As a result, there is a lack of reliable normative baselines of structural connectivity metrics at this critical stage in brain development. In this study, we developed a computational framework, based on spatio-temporal averaging, for determining such baselines. We used this framework to analyze the structural connectivity between 33 and 44 postmenstrual weeks using data from 166 subjects. Our results unveiled clear and strong trends in the development of structural connectivity in perinatal stage. Connection weighting based on fractional anisotropy and neurite density produced the most consistent results. We observed increases in global and local efficiency, a decrease in characteristic path length, and widespread strengthening of the connections within and across brain lobes and hemispheres. We also observed asymmetry patterns that were consistent between different connection weighting approaches. The new computational method and results are useful for assessing normal and abnormal development of the structural connectome early in life.

Bayesian classifiers perform well when each of the features is completely independent of the other which is not always valid in real world application. The aim of this study is to implement and compare the performances of each variant of Bayesian classifier (Multinomial, Bernoulli, and Gaussian) on anomaly detection in network intrusion, and to investigate whether there is any association between each variant assumption and their performance. Our investigation showed that each variant of Bayesian algorithm blindly follows its assumption regardless of feature property, and that the assumption is the single most important factor that influences their accuracy. Experimental results show that Bernoulli has accuracy of 69.9% test (71% train), Multinomial has accuracy of 31.2% test (31.2% train), while Gaussian has accuracy of 81.69% test (82.84% train). Going deeper, we investigated and found that each Naive Bayes variants performances and accuracy is largely due to each classifier assumption, Gaussian classifier performed best on anomaly detection due to its assumption that features follow normal distributions which are continuous, while multinomial classifier have a dismal performance as it simply assumes discreet and multinomial distribution.

We propose MemoChat, a pipeline for refining instructions that enables large language models (LLMs) to effectively employ self-composed memos for maintaining consistent long-range open-domain conversations. We demonstrate a long-range open-domain conversation through iterative "memorization-retrieval-response" cycles. This requires us to carefully design tailored tuning instructions for each distinct stage. The instructions are reconstructed from a collection of public datasets to teach the LLMs to memorize and retrieve past dialogues with structured memos, leading to enhanced consistency when participating in future conversations. We invite experts to manually annotate a test set designed to evaluate the consistency of long-range conversations questions. Experiments on three testing scenarios involving both open-source and API-accessible chatbots at scale verify the efficacy of MemoChat, which outperforms strong baselines. Our codes, data and models are available here: https://github.com/LuJunru/MemoChat.

Synergistic drug combinations provide huge potentials to enhance therapeutic efficacy and to reduce adverse reactions. However, effective and synergistic drug combination prediction remains an open question because of the unknown causal disease signaling pathways. Though various deep learning (AI) models have been proposed to quantitatively predict the synergism of drug combinations, the major limitation of existing deep learning methods is that they are inherently not interpretable, which makes the conclusions of AI models untransparent to human experts, henceforth limiting the robustness of the model conclusion and the implementation ability of these models in real-world human--AI healthcare. In this paper, we develop an interpretable graph neural network (GNN) that reveals the underlying essential therapeutic targets and the mechanism of the synergy (MoS) by mining the sub-molecular network of great importance. The key point of the interpretable GNN prediction model is a novel graph pooling layer, a self-attention-based node and edge pool (henceforth SANEpool), that can compute the attention score (importance) of genes and connections based on the genomic features and topology. As such, the proposed GNN model provides a systematic way to predict and interpret the drug combination synergism based on the detected crucial sub-molecular network. Experiments on various well-adopted drug-synergy-prediction datasets demonstrate that (1) the SANEpool model has superior predictive ability to generate accurate synergy score prediction, and (2) the sub-molecular networks detected by the SANEpool are self-explainable and salient for identifying synergistic drug combinations.