Electric consumption prediction methods are investigated for many reasons such as decision-making related to energy efficiency as well as for anticipating demand in the energy market dynamics. The objective of the present work is the comparison between two Deep Learning models, namely the Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) and Bi-directional LSTM (BLSTM) for univariate electric consumption Time Series (TS) short-term forecast. The Data Sets (DSs) were selected for their different contexts and scales, aiming the assessment of the models' robustness. Four DSs were used, related to the power consumption of: (a) a household in France; (b) a university building in Santar\'em, Brazil; (c) the T\'etouan city zones, in Morocco; and (c) the Singapore aggregated electric demand. The metrics RMSE, MAE, MAPE and R2 were calculated in a TS cross-validation scheme. The Friedman's test was applied to normalized RMSE (NRMSE) results, showing that BLSTM outperforms LSTM with statistically significant difference (p = 0.0455), corroborating the fact that bidirectional weight updating improves significantly the LSTM performance concerning different scales of electric power consumption.

We introduce Voyager, the first LLM-powered embodied lifelong learning agent in Minecraft that continuously explores the world, acquires diverse skills, and makes novel discoveries without human intervention. Voyager consists of three key components: 1) an automatic curriculum that maximizes exploration, 2) an ever-growing skill library of executable code for storing and retrieving complex behaviors, and 3) a new iterative prompting mechanism that incorporates environment feedback, execution errors, and self-verification for program improvement. Voyager interacts with GPT-4 via blackbox queries, which bypasses the need for model parameter fine-tuning. The skills developed by Voyager are temporally extended, interpretable, and compositional, which compounds the agent's abilities rapidly and alleviates catastrophic forgetting. Empirically, Voyager shows strong in-context lifelong learning capability and exhibits exceptional proficiency in playing Minecraft. It obtains 3.3x more unique items, travels 2.3x longer distances, and unlocks key tech tree milestones up to 15.3x faster than prior SOTA. Voyager is able to utilize the learned skill library in a new Minecraft world to solve novel tasks from scratch, while other techniques struggle to generalize. We open-source our full codebase and prompts at https://voyager.minedojo.org/.

In comparative linguistics, colexification refers to the phenomenon of a lexical form conveying two or more distinct meanings. Existing work on colexification patterns relies on annotated word lists, limiting scalability and usefulness in NLP. In contrast, we identify colexification patterns of more than 2,000 concepts across 1,335 languages directly from an unannotated parallel corpus. We then propose simple and effective methods to build multilingual graphs from the colexification patterns: ColexNet and ColexNet+. ColexNet's nodes are concepts and its edges are colexifications. In ColexNet+, concept nodes are additionally linked through intermediate nodes, each representing an ngram in one of 1,334 languages. We use ColexNet+ to train $\overrightarrow{\mbox{ColexNet+}}$, high-quality multilingual embeddings that are well-suited for transfer learning. In our experiments, we first show that ColexNet achieves high recall on CLICS, a dataset of crosslingual colexifications. We then evaluate $\overrightarrow{\mbox{ColexNet+}}$ on roundtrip translation, sentence retrieval and sentence classification and show that our embeddings surpass several transfer learning baselines. This demonstrates the benefits of using colexification as a source of information in multilingual NLP.

Growing literature has shown that NLP systems may encode social biases; however, the political bias of summarization models remains relatively unknown. In this work, we use an entity replacement method to investigate the portrayal of politicians in automatically generated summaries of news articles. We develop an entity-based computational framework to assess the sensitivities of several extractive and abstractive summarizers to the politicians Donald Trump and Joe Biden. We find consistent differences in these summaries upon entity replacement, such as reduced emphasis of Trump's presence in the context of the same article and a more individualistic representation of Trump with respect to the collective US government (i.e., administration). These summary dissimilarities are most prominent when the entity is heavily featured in the source article. Our characterization provides a foundation for future studies of bias in summarization and for normative discussions on the ideal qualities of automatic summaries.

Identifying relevant persona or knowledge for conversational systems is critical to grounded dialogue response generation. However, each grounding has been mostly researched in isolation with more practical multi-context dialogue tasks introduced in recent works. We define Persona and Knowledge Dual Context Identification as the task to identify persona and knowledge jointly for a given dialogue, which could be of elevated importance in complex multi-context dialogue settings. We develop a novel grounding retrieval method that utilizes all contexts of dialogue simultaneously. Our method requires less computational power via utilizing neural QA retrieval models. We further introduce our novel null-positive rank test which measures ranking performance on semantically dissimilar samples (i.e. hard negatives) in relation to data augmentation.

If you ask a human to describe an image, they might do so in a thousand different ways. Traditionally, image captioning models are trained to generate a single "best" (most like a reference) image caption. Unfortunately, doing so encourages captions that are "informationally impoverished," and focus on only a subset of the possible details, while ignoring other potentially useful information in the scene. In this work, we introduce a simple, yet novel, method: "Image Captioning by Committee Consensus" (IC3), designed to generate a single caption that captures high-level details from several annotator viewpoints. Humans rate captions produced by IC3 at least as helpful as baseline SOTA models more than two thirds of the time, and IC3 can improve the performance of SOTA automated recall systems by up to 84%, outperforming single human-generated reference captions, and indicating significant improvements over SOTA approaches for visual description. Code is available at https://davidmchan.github.io/caption-by-committee/

Two key obstacles in biomedical relation extraction (RE) are the scarcity of annotations and the prevalence of instances without explicitly pre-defined labels due to low annotation coverage. Existing approaches, which treat biomedical RE as a multi-class classification task, often result in poor generalization in low-resource settings and do not have the ability to make selective prediction on unknown cases but give a guess from seen relations, hindering the applicability of those approaches. We present NBR, which converts biomedical RE as natural language inference formulation through indirect supervision. By converting relations to natural language hypotheses, NBR is capable of exploiting semantic cues to alleviate annotation scarcity. By incorporating a ranking-based loss that implicitly calibrates abstinent instances, NBR learns a clearer decision boundary and is instructed to abstain on uncertain instances. Extensive experiments on three widely-used biomedical RE benchmarks, namely ChemProt, DDI and GAD, verify the effectiveness of NBR in both full-set and low-resource regimes. Our analysis demonstrates that indirect supervision benefits biomedical RE even when a domain gap exists, and combining NLI knowledge with biomedical knowledge leads to the best performance gains.

Gibbs posteriors are proportional to a prior distribution multiplied by an exponentiated loss function, with a key tuning parameter weighting information in the loss relative to the prior and providing a control of posterior uncertainty. Gibbs posteriors provide a principled framework for likelihood-free Bayesian inference, but in many situations, including a single tuning parameter inevitably leads to poor uncertainty quantification. In particular, regardless of the value of the parameter, credible regions have far from the nominal frequentist coverage even in large samples. We propose a sequential extension to Gibbs posteriors to address this problem. We prove the proposed sequential posterior exhibits concentration and a Bernstein-von Mises theorem, which holds under easy to verify conditions in Euclidean space and on manifolds. As a byproduct, we obtain the first Bernstein-von Mises theorem for traditional likelihood-based Bayesian posteriors on manifolds. All methods are illustrated with an application to principal component analysis.

We propose in this paper, STANLEY, a STochastic gradient ANisotropic LangEvin dYnamics, for sampling high dimensional data. With the growing efficacy and potential of Energy-Based modeling, also known as non-normalized probabilistic modeling, for modeling a generative process of different natures of high dimensional data observations, we present an end-to-end learning algorithm for Energy-Based models (EBM) with the purpose of improving the quality of the resulting sampled data points. While the unknown normalizing constant of EBMs makes the training procedure intractable, resorting to Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is in general a viable option. Realizing what MCMC entails for the EBM training, we propose in this paper, a novel high dimensional sampling method, based on an anisotropic stepsize and a gradient-informed covariance matrix, embedded into a discretized Langevin diffusion. We motivate the necessity for an anisotropic update of the negative samples in the Markov Chain by the nonlinearity of the backbone of the EBM, here a Convolutional Neural Network. Our resulting method, namely STANLEY, is an optimization algorithm for training Energy-Based models via our newly introduced MCMC method. We provide a theoretical understanding of our sampling scheme by proving that the sampler leads to a geometrically uniformly ergodic Markov Chain. Several image generation experiments are provided in our paper to show the effectiveness of our method.

Physics-informed neural networks have emerged as a coherent framework for building predictive models that combine statistical patterns with domain knowledge. The underlying notion is to enrich the optimization loss function with known relationships to constrain the space of possible solutions. Hydrodynamic simulations are a core constituent of modern cosmology, while the required computations are both expensive and time-consuming. At the same time, the comparatively fast simulation of dark matter requires fewer resources, which has led to the emergence of machine learning algorithms for baryon inpainting as an active area of research; here, recreating the scatter found in hydrodynamic simulations is an ongoing challenge. This paper presents the first application of physics-informed neural networks to baryon inpainting by combining advances in neural network architectures with physical constraints, injecting theory on baryon conversion efficiency into the model loss function. We also introduce a punitive prediction comparison based on the Kullback-Leibler divergence, which enforces scatter reproduction. By simultaneously extracting the complete set of baryonic properties for the Simba suite of cosmological simulations, our results demonstrate improved accuracy of baryonic predictions based on dark matter halo properties and successful recovery of the fundamental metallicity relation, and retrieve scatter that traces the target simulation's distribution.