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Twitter Permeability to financial events: an experiment towards a model for sensing irregularities

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

There is a general consensus of the good sensing and novelty characteristics of Twitter as an information media for the complex financial market. This paper investigates the permeability of Twittersphere, the total universe of Twitter users and their habits, towards relevant events in the financial market. Analysis shows that a general purpose social media is permeable to financial-specific events and establishes Twitter as a relevant feeder for taking decisions regarding the financial market and event fraudulent activities in that market. However, the provenance of contributions, their different levels of credibility and quality and even the purpose or intention behind them should to be considered and carefully contemplated if Twitter is used as a single source for decision taking. With the overall aim of this research, to deploy an architecture for real-time monitoring of irregularities in the financial market, this paper conducts a series of experiments on the level of permeability and the permeable features of Twitter in the event of one of these irregularities. To be precise, Twitter data is collected concerning an event comprising of a specific financial action on the 27th January 2017:{~ }the announcement about the merge of two companies Tesco PLC and Booker Group PLC, listed in the main market of the London Stock Exchange (LSE), to create the UK's Leading Food Business. The experiment attempts to answer five key research questions which aim to characterize the features of Twitter permeability to the financial market. The experimental results confirm that a far-impacting financial event, such as the merger considered, caused apparent disturbances in all the features considered, that is, information volume, content and sentiment as well as geographical provenance. Analysis shows that despite, Twitter not being a specific financial forum, it is permeable to financial events.


Towards Efficient Quantum Anomaly Detection: One-Class SVMs using Variable Subsampling and Randomized Measurements

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Quantum computing, with its potential to enhance various machine learning tasks, allows significant advancements in kernel calculation and model precision. Utilizing the one-class Support Vector Machine alongside a quantum kernel, known for its classically challenging representational capacity, notable improvements in average precision compared to classical counterparts were observed in previous studies. Conventional calculations of these kernels, however, present a quadratic time complexity concerning data size, posing challenges in practical applications. To mitigate this, we explore two distinct approaches: utilizing randomized measurements to evaluate the quantum kernel and implementing the variable subsampling ensemble method, both targeting linear time complexity. Experimental results demonstrate a substantial reduction in training and inference times by up to 95\% and 25\% respectively, employing these methods. Although unstable, the average precision of randomized measurements discernibly surpasses that of the classical Radial Basis Function kernel, suggesting a promising direction for further research in scalable, efficient quantum computing applications in machine learning.


Learning Safety Constraints From Demonstration Using One-Class Decision Trees

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The alignment of autonomous agents with human values is a pivotal challenge when deploying these agents within physical environments, where safety is an important concern. However, defining the agent's objective as a reward and/or cost function is inherently complex and prone to human errors. In response to this challenge, we present a novel approach that leverages one-class decision trees to facilitate learning from expert demonstrations. These decision trees provide a foundation for representing a set of constraints pertinent to the given environment as a logical formula in disjunctive normal form. The learned constraints are subsequently employed within an oracle constrained reinforcement learning framework, enabling the acquisition of a safe policy. In contrast to other methods, our approach offers an interpretable representation of the constraints, a vital feature in safety-critical environments. To validate the effectiveness of our proposed method, we conduct experiments in synthetic benchmark domains and a realistic driving environment.


Data and Model Poisoning Backdoor Attacks on Wireless Federated Learning, and the Defense Mechanisms: A Comprehensive Survey

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Due to the greatly improved capabilities of devices, massive data, and increasing concern about data privacy, Federated Learning (FL) has been increasingly considered for applications to wireless communication networks (WCNs). Wireless FL (WFL) is a distributed method of training a global deep learning model in which a large number of participants each train a local model on their training datasets and then upload the local model updates to a central server. However, in general, non-independent and identically distributed (non-IID) data of WCNs raises concerns about robustness, as a malicious participant could potentially inject a "backdoor" into the global model by uploading poisoned data or models over WCN. This could cause the model to misclassify malicious inputs as a specific target class while behaving normally with benign inputs. This survey provides a comprehensive review of the latest backdoor attacks and defense mechanisms. It classifies them according to their targets (data poisoning or model poisoning), the attack phase (local data collection, training, or aggregation), and defense stage (local training, before aggregation, during aggregation, or after aggregation). The strengths and limitations of existing attack strategies and defense mechanisms are analyzed in detail. Comparisons of existing attack methods and defense designs are carried out, pointing to noteworthy findings, open challenges, and potential future research directions related to security and privacy of WFL.


Character-LLM: A Trainable Agent for Role-Playing

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Large language models (LLMs) can be used to serve as agents to simulate human behaviors, given the powerful ability to understand human instructions and provide high-quality generated texts. Such ability stimulates us to wonder whether LLMs can simulate a person in a higher form than simple human behaviors. Therefore, we aim to train an agent with the profile, experience, and emotional states of a specific person instead of using limited prompts to instruct ChatGPT API. In this work, we introduce Character-LLM that teach LLMs to act as specific people such as Beethoven, Queen Cleopatra, Julius Caesar, etc. Our method focuses on editing profiles as experiences of a certain character and training models to be personal simulacra with these experiences. To assess the effectiveness of our approach, we build a test playground that interviews trained agents and evaluates whether the agents \textit{memorize} their characters and experiences. Experimental results show interesting observations that help build future simulacra of humankind.


An overview of differentiable particle filters for data-adaptive sequential Bayesian inference

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

By approximating posterior distributions with weighted samples, particle filters (PFs) provide an efficient mechanism for solving non-linear sequential state estimation problems. While the effectiveness of particle filters has been recognised in various applications, their performance relies on the knowledge of dynamic models and measurement models, as well as the construction of effective proposal distributions. An emerging trend involves constructing components of particle filters using neural networks and optimising them by gradient descent, and such data-adaptive particle filtering approaches are often called differentiable particle filters. Due to the expressiveness of neural networks, differentiable particle filters are a promising computational tool for performing inference on sequential data in complex, high-dimensional tasks, such as vision-based robot localisation. In this paper, we review recent advances in differentiable particle filters and their applications. We place special emphasis on different design choices for key components of differentiable particle filters, including dynamic models, measurement models, proposal distributions, optimisation objectives, and differentiable resampling techniques.


Personalized Path Recourse

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

This paper introduces Personalized Path Recourse, a novel method that generates recourse paths for an agent. The objective is to achieve desired goals (e.g., better outcomes compared to the agent's original paths of action), while ensuring a high similarity to the agent's original paths and being personalized to the agent. Personalization refers to the extent to which the new path is tailored to the agent's observed behavior patterns from their policy function. We train a personalized recourse agent to generate such personalized paths, which are obtained using reward functions that consider the goal, similarity, and personalization. The proposed method is applicable to both reinforcement learning and supervised learning settings for correcting or improving sequences of actions or sequences of data to achieve a pre-determined goal. The method is evaluated in various settings and demonstrates promising results.


A systematic review of the use of Deep Learning in Satellite Imagery for Agriculture

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Agricultural research is essential for increasing food production to meet the requirements of an increasing population in the coming decades. Recently, satellite technology has been improving rapidly and deep learning has seen much success in generic computer vision tasks and many application areas which presents an important opportunity to improve analysis of agricultural land. Here we present a systematic review of 150 studies to find the current uses of deep learning on satellite imagery for agricultural research. Although we identify 5 categories of agricultural monitoring tasks, the majority of the research interest is in crop segmentation and yield prediction. We found that, when used, modern deep learning methods consistently outperformed traditional machine learning across most tasks; the only exception was that Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) Recurrent Neural Networks did not consistently outperform Random Forests (RF) for yield prediction. The reviewed studies have largely adopted methodologies from generic computer vision, except for one major omission: benchmark datasets are not utilised to evaluate models across studies, making it difficult to compare results. Additionally, some studies have specifically utilised the extra spectral resolution available in satellite imagery, but other divergent properties of satellite images - such as the hugely different scales of spatial patterns - are not being taken advantage of in the reviewed studies.


Modeling and Predicting Epidemic Spread: A Gaussian Process Regression Approach

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Modeling and prediction of epidemic spread are critical to assist in policy-making for mitigation. Therefore, we present a new method based on Gaussian Process Regression to model and predict epidemics, and it quantifies prediction confidence through variance and high probability error bounds. Gaussian Process Regression excels in using small datasets and providing uncertainty bounds, and both of these properties are critical in modeling and predicting epidemic spreading processes with limited data. However, the derivation of formal uncertainty bounds remains lacking when using Gaussian Process Regression in the setting of epidemics, which limits its usefulness in guiding mitigation efforts. Therefore, in this work, we develop a novel bound on the variance of the prediction that quantifies the impact of the epidemic data on the predictions we make. Further, we develop a high probability error bound on the prediction, and we quantify how the epidemic spread, the infection data, and the length of the prediction horizon all affect this error bound. We also show that the error stays below a certain threshold based on the length of the prediction horizon. To illustrate this framework, we leverage Gaussian Process Regression to model and predict COVID-19 using real-world infection data from the United Kingdom.


US destroyer in Red Sea shoots down another Houthi drone

FOX News

Fox News chief national security correspondent Jennifer Griffin reports on the repeated attacks on U.S. forces in the Middle East on'Faulkner Focus.' U.S. Navy destroyer USS Mason shot down a Houthi drone coming out of Yemen on Wednesday, a U.S. defense official told Fox News. The drone was headed toward USS Mason, which was responding to reports that Houthis were attacking the tanker Ardmore Encounter by using skiffs and then firing two missiles that missed, according to the official. No damage or injuries were initially reported, and the Ardmore Encounter went on its way. The incident occurred around 8 a.m. A Pentagon official confirmed to Fox News that the two missiles were anti-ship ballistic missiles fired from ground-based locations in Yemen.