Desert locust swarms present a major threat to agriculture and food security. Addressing this challenge, our study develops an operationally-ready model for predicting locust breeding grounds, which has the potential to enhance early warning systems and targeted control measures. We curated a dataset from the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization's (UN-FAO) locust observation records and analyzed it using two types of spatio-temporal input features: remotely-sensed environmental and climate data as well as multi-spectral earth observation images. Our approach employed custom deep learning models (three-dimensional and LSTM-based recurrent convolutional networks), along with the geospatial foundational model Prithvi recently released by Jakubik et al., 2023. These models notably outperformed existing baselines, with the Prithvi-based model, fine-tuned on multi-spectral images from NASA's Harmonized Landsat and Sentinel-2 (HLS) dataset, achieving the highest accuracy, F1 and ROC-AUC scores (83.03%, 81.53% and 87.69%, respectively). A significant finding from our research is that multi-spectral earth observation images alone are sufficient for effective locust breeding ground prediction without the need to explicitly incorporate climatic or environmental features.

General purpose AI, such as ChatGPT, seems to have lowered the barriers for the public to use AI and harness its power. However, the governance and development of AI still remain in the hands of a few, and the pace of development is accelerating without proper assessment of risks. As a first step towards democratic governance and risk assessment of AI, we introduce Particip-AI, a framework to gather current and future AI use cases and their harms and benefits from non-expert public. Our framework allows us to study more nuanced and detailed public opinions on AI through collecting use cases, surfacing diverse harms through risk assessment under alternate scenarios (i.e., developing and not developing a use case), and illuminating tensions over AI development through making a concluding choice on its development. To showcase the promise of our framework towards guiding democratic AI, we gather responses from 295 demographically diverse participants. We find that participants' responses emphasize applications for personal life and society, contrasting with most current AI development's business focus. This shows the value of surfacing diverse harms that are complementary to expert assessments. Furthermore, we found that perceived impact of not developing use cases predicted participants' judgements of whether AI use cases should be developed, and highlighted lay users' concerns of techno-solutionism. We conclude with a discussion on how frameworks like Particip-AI can further guide democratic AI governance and regulation.

The factuality of large language model (LLMs) tends to decay over time since events posterior to their training are "unknown" to them. One way to keep models up-to-date could be factual update: the task of inserting, replacing, or removing certain simple (atomic) facts within the model. To study this task, we present WikiFactDiff, a dataset that describes the evolution of factual knowledge between two dates as a collection of simple facts divided into three categories: new, obsolete, and static. We describe several update scenarios arising from various combinations of these three types of basic update. The facts are represented by subject-relation-object triples; indeed, WikiFactDiff was constructed by comparing the state of the Wikidata knowledge base at 4 January 2021 and 27 February 2023. Those fact are accompanied by verbalization templates and cloze tests that enable running update algorithms and their evaluation metrics. Contrary to other datasets, such as zsRE and CounterFact, WikiFactDiff constitutes a realistic update setting that involves various update scenarios, including replacements, archival, and new entity insertions. We also present an evaluation of existing update algorithms on WikiFactDiff.

Automating real-time anomaly detection is essential for identifying rare transients in the era of large-scale astronomical surveys. Modern survey telescopes are generating tens of thousands of alerts per night, and future telescopes, such as the Vera C. Rubin Observatory, are projected to increase this number dramatically. Currently, most anomaly detection algorithms for astronomical transients rely either on hand-crafted features extracted from light curves or on features generated through unsupervised representation learning, which are then coupled with standard machine learning anomaly detection algorithms. In this work, we introduce an alternative approach to detecting anomalies: using the penultimate layer of a neural network classifier as the latent space for anomaly detection. We then propose a novel method, named Multi-Class Isolation Forests (MCIF), which trains separate isolation forests for each class to derive an anomaly score for a light curve from the latent space representation given by the classifier. This approach significantly outperforms a standard isolation forest. We also use a simpler input method for real-time transient classifiers which circumvents the need for interpolation in light curves and helps the neural network model inter-passband relationships and handle irregular sampling. Our anomaly detection pipeline identifies rare classes including kilonovae, pair-instability supernovae, and intermediate luminosity transients shortly after trigger on simulated Zwicky Transient Facility light curves. Using a sample of our simulations that matched the population of anomalies expected in nature (54 anomalies and 12,040 common transients), our method was able to discover $41\pm3$ anomalies (~75% recall) after following up the top 2000 (~15%) ranked transients. Our novel method shows that classifiers can be effectively repurposed for real-time anomaly detection.

As an essential task in autonomous driving (AD), motion prediction aims to predict the future states of surround objects for navigation. One natural solution is to estimate the position of other agents in a step-by-step manner where each predicted time-step is conditioned on both observed time-steps and previously predicted time-steps, i.e., autoregressive prediction. Pioneering works like SocialLSTM and MFP design their decoders based on this intuition. However, almost all state-of-the-art works assume that all predicted time-steps are independent conditioned on observed time-steps, where they use a single linear layer to generate positions of all time-steps simultaneously. They dominate most motion prediction leaderboards due to the simplicity of training MLPs compared to autoregressive networks. In this paper, we introduce the GPT style next token prediction into motion forecasting. In this way, the input and output could be represented in a unified space and thus the autoregressive prediction becomes more feasible. However, different from language data which is composed of homogeneous units -words, the elements in the driving scene could have complex spatial-temporal and semantic relations. To this end, we propose to adopt three factorized attention modules with different neighbors for information aggregation and different position encoding styles to capture their relations, e.g., encoding the transformation between coordinate systems for spatial relativity while adopting RoPE for temporal relativity. Empirically, by equipping with the aforementioned tailored designs, the proposed method achieves state-of-the-art performance in the Waymo Open Motion and Waymo Interaction datasets. Notably, AMP outperforms other recent autoregressive motion prediction methods: MotionLM and StateTransformer, which demonstrates the effectiveness of the proposed designs.

Large language models (LLMs) have achieved great success in many fields, and recent works have studied exploring LLMs for graph discriminative tasks such as node classification. However, the abilities of LLMs for graph generation remain unexplored in the literature. Graph generation requires the LLM to generate graphs with given properties, which has valuable real-world applications such as drug discovery, while tends to be more challenging. In this paper, we propose LLM4GraphGen to explore the ability of LLMs for graph generation with systematical task designs and extensive experiments. Specifically, we propose several tasks tailored with comprehensive experiments to address key questions regarding LLMs' understanding of different graph structure rules, their ability to capture structural type distributions, and their utilization of domain knowledge for property-based graph generation. Our evaluations demonstrate that LLMs, particularly GPT-4, exhibit preliminary abilities in graph generation tasks, including rule-based and distribution-based generation. We also observe that popular prompting methods, such as few-shot and chain-of-thought prompting, do not consistently enhance performance. Besides, LLMs show potential in generating molecules with specific properties. These findings may serve as foundations for designing good LLMs based models for graph generation and provide valuable insights and further research.

Social media platforms are online fora where users engage in discussions, share content, and build connections. This review explores the dynamics of social interactions, user-generated contents, and biases within the context of social media analysis (analyzing works that use the tools offered by complex network analysis and natural language processing) through the lens of three key points of view: online debates, online support, and human-AI interactions. On the one hand, we delineate the phenomenon of online debates, where polarization, misinformation, and echo chamber formation often proliferate, driven by algorithmic biases and extreme mechanisms of homophily. On the other hand, we explore the emergence of online support groups through users' self-disclosure and social support mechanisms. Online debates and support mechanisms present a duality of both perils and possibilities within social media; perils of segregated communities and polarized debates, and possibilities of empathy narratives and self-help groups. This dichotomy also extends to a third perspective: users' reliance on AI-generated content, such as the ones produced by Large Language Models, which can manifest both human biases hidden in training sets and non-human biases that emerge from their artificial neural architectures. Analyzing interdisciplinary approaches, we aim to deepen the understanding of the complex interplay between social interactions, user-generated content, and biases within the realm of social media ecosystems.

The estimation of causal effects with observational data continues to be a very active research area. In recent years, researchers have developed new frameworks which use machine learning to relax classical assumptions necessary for the estimation of causal effects. In this paper, we review one of the most prominent methods - "double/debiased machine learning" (DML) - and empirically evaluate it by comparing its performance on simulated data relative to more traditional statistical methods, before applying it to real-world data. Our findings indicate that the application of a suitably flexible machine learning algorithm within DML improves the adjustment for various nonlinear confounding relationships. This advantage enables a departure from traditional functional form assumptions typically necessary in causal effect estimation. However, we demonstrate that the method continues to critically depend on standard assumptions about causal structure and identification. When estimating the effects of air pollution on housing prices in our application, we find that DML estimates are consistently larger than estimates of less flexible methods. From our overall results, we provide actionable recommendations for specific choices researchers must make when applying DML in practice.

Google just announced that it has been using AI to successfully predict riverline floods, up to seven days in advance in some cases. This isn't just tech company hyperbole, as the findings were actually published in the esteemed science journal Nature. Floods are the most common natural disaster throughout the world, so any early warning system is good news. Floods have been notoriously tricky to predict, as most rivers don't have streamflow gauges. Google got around this problem by training machine learning models with all kinds of relevant data, including historical events, river level readings, elevation and terrain readings and more.

Search algorithms are often categorized by their node expansion strategy. One option is the depth-first strategy, a simple backtracking strategy that traverses the search space in the order in which successor nodes are generated. An alternative is the best-first strategy, which was designed to make it possible to use domain-specific heuristic information. By exploring promising parts of the search space first, best-first algorithms are usually more efficient than depth-first algorithms. In programs that play minimax games such as chess and checkers, the efficiency of the search is of crucial importance. Given the success of best-first algorithms in other domains, one would expect them to be used for minimax games too. However, all high-performance game-playing programs are based on a depth-first algorithm. This study takes a closer look at a depth-first algorithm, AB, and a best-first algorithm, SSS. The prevailing opinion on these algorithms is that SSS offers the potential for a more efficient search, but that its complicated formulation and exponential memory requirements render it impractical. The theoretical part of this work shows that there is a surprisingly straightforward link between the two algorithms -- for all practical purposes, SSS is a special case of AB. Subsequent empirical evidence proves the prevailing opinion on SSS to be wrong: it is not a complicated algorithm, it does not need too much memory, and it is also not more efficient than depth-first search.