We introduce Chronos, a simple yet effective framework for pretrained probabilistic time series models. Chronos tokenizes time series values using scaling and quantization into a fixed vocabulary and trains existing transformer-based language model architectures on these tokenized time series via the cross-entropy loss. We pretrained Chronos models based on the T5 family (ranging from 20M to 710M parameters) on a large collection of publicly available datasets, complemented by a synthetic dataset that we generated via Gaussian processes to improve generalization. In a comprehensive benchmark consisting of 42 datasets, and comprising both classical local models and deep learning methods, we show that Chronos models: (a) significantly outperform other methods on datasets that were part of the training corpus; and (b) have comparable and occasionally superior zero-shot performance on new datasets, relative to methods that were trained specifically on them. Our results demonstrate that Chronos models can leverage time series data from diverse domains to improve zero-shot accuracy on unseen forecasting tasks, positioning pretrained models as a viable tool to greatly simplify forecasting pipelines.

Neural architecture search (NAS) enables the automatic design of neural network models. However, training the candidates generated by the search algorithm for performance evaluation incurs considerable computational overhead. Our method, dubbed nasgraph, remarkably reduces the computational costs by converting neural architectures to graphs and using the average degree, a graph measure, as the proxy in lieu of the evaluation metric. Our training-free NAS method is data-agnostic and light-weight. It can find the best architecture among 200 randomly sampled architectures from NAS-Bench201 in 217 CPU seconds. Besides, our method is able to achieve competitive performance on various datasets including NASBench-101, NASBench-201, and NDS search spaces. We also demonstrate that nasgraph generalizes to more challenging tasks on Micro TransNAS-Bench-101.

In large language model training, input documents are typically concatenated together and then split into sequences of equal length to avoid padding tokens. Despite its efficiency, the concatenation approach compromises data integrity -- it inevitably breaks many documents into incomplete pieces, leading to excessive truncations that hinder the model from learning to compose logically coherent and factually consistent content that is grounded on the complete context. To address the issue, we propose Best-fit Packing, a scalable and efficient method that packs documents into training sequences through length-aware combinatorial optimization. Our method completely eliminates unnecessary truncations while retaining the same training efficiency as concatenation. Empirical results from both text and code pre-training show that our method achieves superior performance (e.g., relatively +4.7% on reading comprehension; +16.8% in context following; and +9.2% on program synthesis), and reduces closed-domain hallucination effectively by up to 58.3%.

Proof-oriented programs mix computational content with proofs of program correctness. However, the human effort involved in programming and proving is still substantial, despite the use of Satisfiability Modulo Theories (SMT) solvers to automate proofs in languages such as F*. Seeking to spur research on using AI to automate the construction of proof-oriented programs, we curate a dataset of 600K lines of open-source F* programs and proofs, including software used in production systems ranging from Windows and Linux, to Python and Firefox. Our dataset includes around 32K top-level F* definitions, each representing a type-directed program and proof synthesis problem -- producing a definition given a formal specification expressed as an F* type. We provide a program-fragment checker that queries F* to check the correctness of candidate solutions. We believe this is the largest corpus of SMT-assisted program proofs coupled with a reproducible program-fragment checker. Grounded in this dataset, we investigate the use of AI to synthesize programs and their proofs in F*, with promising results. Our main finding in that the performance of fine-tuned smaller language models (such as Phi-2 or StarCoder) compare favorably with large language models (such as GPT-4), at a much lower computational cost. We also identify various type-based retrieval augmentation techniques and find that they boost performance significantly. With detailed error analysis and case studies, we identify potential strengths and weaknesses of models and techniques and suggest directions for future improvements.

We propose a novel algorithm that extends the methods of ball smoothing and Gaussian smoothing for noisy derivative-free optimization by accounting for the heterogeneous curvature of the objective function. The algorithm dynamically adapts the shape of the smoothing kernel to approximate the Hessian of the objective function around a local optimum. This approach significantly reduces the error in estimating the gradient from noisy evaluations through sampling. We demonstrate the efficacy of our method through numerical experiments on artificial problems. Additionally, we show improved performance when tuning NP-hard combinatorial optimization solvers compared to existing state-of-the-art heuristic derivative-free and Bayesian optimization methods.

The Igbo language is facing a risk of becoming endangered, as indicated by a 2025 UNESCO study. This highlights the need to develop language technologies for Igbo to foster communication, learning and preservation. To create robust, impactful, and widely adopted language technologies for Igbo, it is essential to incorporate the multi-dialectal nature of the language. The primary obstacle in achieving dialectal-aware language technologies is the lack of comprehensive dialectal datasets. In response, we present the IgboAPI dataset, a multi-dialectal Igbo-English dictionary dataset, developed with the aim of enhancing the representation of Igbo dialects. Furthermore, we illustrate the practicality of the IgboAPI dataset through two distinct studies: one focusing on Igbo semantic lexicon and the other on machine translation. In the semantic lexicon project, we successfully establish an initial Igbo semantic lexicon for the Igbo semantic tagger, while in the machine translation study, we demonstrate that by finetuning existing machine translation systems using the IgboAPI dataset, we significantly improve their ability to handle dialectal variations in sentences.

Machine learning systems have been widely used to make decisions about individuals who may best respond and behave strategically to receive favorable outcomes, e.g., they may genuinely improve the true labels or manipulate observable features directly to game the system without changing labels. Although both behaviors have been studied (often as two separate problems) in the literature, most works assume individuals can (i) perfectly foresee the outcomes of their behaviors when they best respond; (ii) change their features arbitrarily as long as it is affordable, and the costs they need to pay are deterministic functions of feature changes. In this paper, we consider a different setting and focus on imitative strategic behaviors with unforeseeable outcomes, i.e., individuals manipulate/improve by imitating the features of those with positive labels, but the induced feature changes are unforeseeable. We first propose a Stackelberg game to model the interplay between individuals and the decision-maker, under which we examine how the decision-maker's ability to anticipate individual behavior affects its objective function and the individual's best response. We show that the objective difference between the two can be decomposed into three interpretable terms, with each representing the decision-maker's preference for a certain behavior. By exploring the roles of each term, we further illustrate how a decision-maker with adjusted preferences can simultaneously disincentivize manipulation, incentivize improvement, and promote fairness.

Detecting and segmenting moving objects from a moving monocular camera is challenging in the presence of unknown camera motion, diverse object motions and complex scene structures. Most existing methods rely on a single motion cue to perform motion segmentation, which is usually insufficient when facing different complex environments. While a few recent deep learning based methods are able to combine multiple motion cues to achieve improved accuracy, they depend heavily on vast datasets and extensive annotations, making them less adaptable to new scenarios. To address these limitations, we propose a novel monocular dense segmentation method that achieves state-of-the-art motion segmentation results in a zero-shot manner. The proposed method synergestically combines the strengths of deep learning and geometric model fusion methods by performing geometric model fusion on object proposals. Experiments show that our method achieves competitive results on several motion segmentation datasets and even surpasses some state-of-the-art supervised methods on certain benchmarks, while not being trained on any data. We also present an ablation study to show the effectiveness of combining different geometric models together for motion segmentation, highlighting the value of our geometric model fusion strategy.

Language technology has the potential to facilitate intercultural communication through meaningful translations. However, the current state of language technology is deeply entangled with colonial knowledge due to path dependencies and neo-colonial tendencies in the global governance of artificial intelligence (AI). Language technology is a complex and emerging field that presents challenges for co-design interventions due to enfolding in assemblages of global scale and diverse sites and its knowledge intensity. This paper uses LiveLanguage, a lexical database, a set of services with particular emphasis on modelling language diversity and integrating small and minority languages, as an example to discuss and close the gap from pluriversal design theory to practice. By diversifying the concept of emerging technology, we can better approach language technology in global contexts. The paper presents a model comprising of five layers of technological activity. Each layer consists of specific practices and stakeholders, thus provides distinctive spaces for co-design interventions as mode of inquiry for de-linking, re-thinking and re-building language technology towards pluriversality. In that way, the paper contributes to reflecting the position of co-design in decolonising emergent technologies, and to integrating complex theoretical knowledge towards decoloniality into language technology design.

This paper presents a discriminative classifier for compositional data. This classifier is based on the posterior distribution of the Generalized Dirichlet which is the discriminative counterpart of Generalized Dirichlet mixture model. Moreover, following the mixture of experts paradigm, we proposed a hierarchical mixture of this classifier. In order to learn the models parameters, we use a variational approximation by deriving an upper-bound for the Generalized Dirichlet mixture. To the best of our knownledge, this is the first time this bound is proposed in the literature. Experimental results are presented for spam detection and color space identification.