Western Area Urban District
GraphCSVAE: Graph Categorical Structured Variational Autoencoder for Spatiotemporal Auditing of Physical Vulnerability Towards Sustainable Post-Disaster Risk Reduction
Dimasaka, Joshua, Geiß, Christian, Muir-Wood, Robert, So, Emily
In the aftermath of disasters, many institutions worldwide face challenges in continually monitoring changes in disaster risk, limiting the ability of key decision-makers to assess progress towards the UN Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015-2030. While numerous efforts have substantially advanced the large-scale modeling of hazard and exposure through Earth observation and data-driven methods, progress remains limited in modeling another equally important yet challenging element of the risk equation: physical vulnerability. To address this gap, we introduce Graph Categorical Structured Variational Autoencoder (GraphCSVAE), a novel probabilistic data-driven framework for modeling physical vulnerability by integrating deep learning, graph representation, and categorical probabilistic inference, using time-series satellite-derived datasets and prior expert belief systems. We introduce a weakly supervised first-order transition matrix that reflects the changes in the spatiotemporal distribution of physical vulnerability in two disaster-stricken and socioeconomically disadvantaged areas: (1) the cyclone-impacted coastal Khurushkul community in Bangladesh and (2) the mudslide-affected city of Freetown in Sierra Leone. Our work reveals post-disaster regional dynamics in physical vulnerability, offering valuable insights into localized spatiotemporal auditing and sustainable strategies for post-disaster risk reduction.
GraphVSSM: Graph Variational State-Space Model for Probabilistic Spatiotemporal Inference of Dynamic Exposure and Vulnerability for Regional Disaster Resilience Assessment
Dimasaka, Joshua, Geiß, Christian, So, Emily
Regional disaster resilience quantifies the changing nature of physical risks to inform policy instruments ranging from local immediate recovery to international sustainable development. While many existing state-of-practice methods have greatly advanced the dynamic mapping of exposure and hazard, our understanding of large-scale physical vulnerability has remained static, costly, limited, region-specific, coarse-grained, overly aggregated, and inadequately calibrated. With the significant growth in the availability of time-series satellite imagery and derived products for exposure and hazard, we focus our work on the equally important yet challenging element of the risk equation: physical vulnerability. We leverage machine learning methods that flexibly capture spatial contextual relationships, limited temporal observations, and uncertainty in a unified probabilistic spatiotemporal inference framework. We therefore introduce Graph Variational State-Space Model (GraphVSSM), a novel modular spatiotemporal approach that uniquely integrates graph deep learning, state-space modeling, and variational inference using time-series data and prior expert belief systems in a weakly supervised or coarse-to-fine-grained manner. We present three major results: a city-wide demonstration in Quezon City, Philippines; an investigation of sudden changes in the cyclone-impacted coastal Khurushkul community (Bangladesh) and mudslide-affected Freetown (Sierra Leone); and an open geospatial dataset, METEOR 2.5D, that spatiotemporally enhances the existing global static dataset for UN Least Developed Countries (2020). Beyond advancing regional disaster resilience assessment and improving our understanding global disaster risk reduction progress, our method also offers a probabilistic deep learning approach, contributing to broader urban studies that require compositional data analysis in weak supervision.
Reversed Attention: On The Gradient Descent Of Attention Layers In GPT
The success of Transformer-based Language Models (LMs) stems from their attention mechanism. While this mechanism has been extensively studied in explainability research, particularly through the attention values obtained during the forward pass of LMs, the backward pass of attention has been largely overlooked. In this work, we study the mathematics of the backward pass of attention, revealing that it implicitly calculates an attention matrix we refer to as "Reversed Attention". We examine the properties of Reversed Attention and demonstrate its ability to elucidate the models' behavior and edit dynamics. In an experimental setup, we showcase the ability of Reversed Attention to directly alter the forward pass of attention, without modifying the model's weights, using a novel method called "attention patching". In addition to enhancing the comprehension of how LM configure attention layers during backpropagation, Reversed Attention maps contribute to a more interpretable backward pass. Our code will be available at: https://github.
$\varepsilon$ K\'U : Integrating Yor\`ub\'a cultural greetings into machine translation
Akinade, Idris, Alabi, Jesujoba, Adelani, David, Odoje, Clement, Klakow, Dietrich
This paper investigates the performance of massively multilingual neural machine translation (NMT) systems in translating Yor\`ub\'a greetings ($\varepsilon$ k\'u [MASK]), which are a big part of Yor\`ub\'a language and culture, into English. To evaluate these models, we present IkiniYor\`ub\'a, a Yor\`ub\'a-English translation dataset containing some Yor\`ub\'a greetings, and sample use cases. We analysed the performance of different multilingual NMT systems including Google and NLLB and show that these models struggle to accurately translate Yor\`ub\'a greetings into English. In addition, we trained a Yor\`ub\'a-English model by finetuning an existing NMT model on the training split of IkiniYor\`ub\'a and this achieved better performance when compared to the pre-trained multilingual NMT models, although they were trained on a large volume of data.
Smart cities, smarter public health
Over the course of the last two years, we interviewed mayors, city officials, urban planners, academics, and citizens in cities around the world to identify the trends that are making urban living more sustainable, affordable, and human. One theme that emerged was cities' increasingly important role in ensuring the health and well-being of their residents.4 Cities currently represent just 3% of the world's territory but harbor 55% of the world's population. By 2050, it's estimated that 70% of the world's population will live in urban centers.5 At an economic level, cities generate around 80% of the global GDP,6 and are responsible for 80% of energy consumption and more than 70% of carbon emissions and global waste.7
Analysis of the Spatio-temporal Dynamics of COVID-19 in Massachusetts via Spectral Graph Wavelet Theory
Geng, Ru, Gao, Yixian, Zhang, Hongkun, Zu, Jian
The rapid spread of COVID-19 disease has had a significant impact on the world. In this paper, we study COVID-19 data interpretation and visualization using open-data sources for 351 cities and towns in Massachusetts from December 6, 2020 to September 25, 2021. Because cities are embedded in rather complex transportation networks, we construct the spatio-temporal dynamic graph model, in which the graph attention neural network is utilized as a deep learning method to learn the pandemic transition probability among major cities in Massachusetts. Using the spectral graph wavelet transform (SGWT), we process the COVID-19 data on the dynamic graph, which enables us to design effective tools to analyze and detect spatio-temporal patterns in the pandemic spreading. We design a new node classification method, which effectively identifies the anomaly cities based on spectral graph wavelet coefficients. It can assist administrations or public health organizations in monitoring the spread of the pandemic and developing preventive measures. Unlike most work focusing on the evolution of confirmed cases over time, we focus on the spatio-temporal patterns of pandemic evolution among cities. Through the data analysis and visualization, a better understanding of the epidemiological development at the city level is obtained and can be helpful with city-specific surveillance.
This Education Minister Is A Renaissance Man (And He's Got A Music Video To Prove It)
Sierra Leone's minister of education and chief innovation officer David Moinina Sengeh is a man of many talents. He's using mobile phone technology to improve daily life, he invented a way to make a prosthetic limb with a computer-assisted technique and he's a singer and rapper and a clothing designer, too. Sierra Leone's minister of education and chief innovation officer David Moinina Sengeh is a man of many talents. He's using mobile phone technology to improve daily life, he invented a way to make a prosthetic limb with a computer-assisted technique and he's a singer and rapper and a clothing designer, too. David Moinina Sengeh is not your typical education minister.
DSTI and UNDP team up to accelerate Sierra Leone's national innovation strategy with artificial intelligence and evidence-based approaches - DSTI
The Directorate of Science Technology and Innovations (DSTI) and the United Nations Development Program (UNDP) have signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) to continue collaboration on applied artificial intelligence for governance, entrepreneurship, and social good. The MoU signed in Freetown last week provides a framework of cooperation and collaboration for both institutions to contribute to the successful implementation of the National Innovation and Digital Strategy (NIDS), especially in areas of common interest. In October 2019, the UNDP Country Lab also known as the Accelerator Lab for Sierra Leone was launched to examine and explore emerging untapped resources to speedup national SDG performance. The UNDP Accelerator Labs are a network of 60 labs serving 78 countries with the collective aim of finding new evidence-based approaches to problem-solving with the use of artificial intelligence, testing, mapping, and experimentation. "DSTI and UNDP have been engaging since Day 1. However, this particular agreement focuses on how we can continue to make significant inroads in the implementation of the National Innovation and Digital Strategy," said Dr. Moinina David Sengeh.
AI Career Fair Night - Africa
The AI Career Fair Night will be held on the evening of December 1, 2019 in Freetown, Sierra Leone. The event will feature different job opportunities across machine learning, data engineering, data visualization, and data architects. During the event, participants could attend professional lectures on career-related topics. In the Mentor Corner, participants could seek guidance on career development issues, from developing professional competencies to job interviewing. Our mentors included HR professionals, data analysts and executives.
Using big data and artificial intelligence to accelerate global development
When U.N. member states unanimously adopted the 2030 Agenda in 2015, the narrative around global development embraced a new paradigm of sustainability and inclusion--of planetary stewardship alongside economic progress, and inclusive distribution of income. This comprehensive agenda--merging social, economic and environmental dimensions of sustainability--is not supported by current modes of data collection and data analysis, so the report of the High-Level Panel on the post-2015 development agenda called for a "data revolution" to empower people through access to information.1 Today, a central development problem is that high-quality, timely, accessible data are absent in most poor countries, where development needs are greatest. In a world of unequal distributions of income and wealth across space, age and class, gender and ethnic pay gaps, and environmental risks, data that provide only national averages conceal more than they reveal. This paper argues that spatial disaggregation and timeliness could permit a process of evidence-based policy making that monitors outcomes and adjusts actions in a feedback loop that can accelerate development through learning. Big data and artificial intelligence are key elements in such a process. Emerging technologies could lead to the next quantum leap in (i) how data is collected; (ii) how data is analyzed; and (iii) how analysis is used for policymaking and the achievement of better results. Big data platforms expand the toolkit for acquiring real-time information at a granular level, while machine learning permits pattern recognition across multiple layers of input. Together, these advances could make data more accessible, scalable, and finely tuned. In turn, the availability of real-time information can shorten the feedback loop between results monitoring, learning, and policy formulation or investment, accelerating the speed and scale at which development actors can implement change.