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Modeling and Prediction of Human Driver Behavior: A Survey

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

We present a review and taxonomy of 200 models from the literature on driver behavior modeling. We begin by introducing a mathematical formulation based on the partially observable stochastic game, which serves as a common framework for comparing and contrasting different driver models. Our taxonomy is constructed around the core modeling tasks of state estimation, intention estimation, trait estimation, and motion prediction, and also discusses the auxiliary tasks of risk estimation, anomaly detection, behavior imitation and microscopic traffic simulation. Existing driver models are categorized based on the specific tasks they address and key attributes of their approach.


Explainable Artificial Intelligence: a Systematic Review

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

This has led to the development of a plethora of domain-dependent and context-specific methods for dealing with the interpretation of machine learning (ML) models and the formation of explanations for humans. Unfortunately, this trend is far from being over, with an abundance of knowledge in the field which is scattered and needs organisation. The goal of this article is to systematically review research works in the field of XAI and to try to define some boundaries in the field. From several hundreds of research articles focused on the concept of explainability, about 350 have been considered for review by using the following search methodology. In a first phase, Google Scholar was queried to find papers related to "explainable artificial intelligence", "explainable machine learning" and "interpretable machine learning". Subsequently, the bibliographic section of these articles was thoroughly examined to retrieve further relevant scientific studies. The first noticeable thing, as shown in figure 2 (a), is the distribution of the publication dates of selected research articles: sporadic in the 70s and 80s, receiving preliminary attention in the 90s, showing raising interest in 2000 and becoming a recognised body of knowledge after 2010. The first research concerned the development of an explanation-based system and its integration in a computer program designed to help doctors make diagnoses [3]. Some of the more recent papers focus on work devoted to the clustering of methods for explainability, motivating the need for organising the XAI literature [4, 5, 6].


Adversarial Machine Learning: Perspectives from Adversarial Risk Analysis

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Adversarial Machine Learning (AML) is emerging as a major field aimed at the protection of automated ML systems against security threats. The majority of work in this area has built upon a game-theoretic framework by modelling a conflict between an attacker and a defender. After reviewing game-theoretic approaches to AML, we discuss the benefits that a Bayesian Adversarial Risk Analysis perspective brings when defending ML based systems. A research agenda is included.


A review of machine learning applications in wildfire science and management

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Artificial intelligence has been applied in wildfire science and management since the 1990s, with early applications including neural networks and expert systems. Since then the field has rapidly progressed congruently with the wide adoption of machine learning (ML) in the environmental sciences. Here, we present a scoping review of ML in wildfire science and management. Our objective is to improve awareness of ML among wildfire scientists and managers, as well as illustrate the challenging range of problems in wildfire science available to data scientists. We first present an overview of popular ML approaches used in wildfire science to date, and then review their use in wildfire science within six problem domains: 1) fuels characterization, fire detection, and mapping; 2) fire weather and climate change; 3) fire occurrence, susceptibility, and risk; 4) fire behavior prediction; 5) fire effects; and 6) fire management. We also discuss the advantages and limitations of various ML approaches and identify opportunities for future advances in wildfire science and management within a data science context. We identified 298 relevant publications, where the most frequently used ML methods included random forests, MaxEnt, artificial neural networks, decision trees, support vector machines, and genetic algorithms. There exists opportunities to apply more current ML methods (e.g., deep learning and agent based learning) in wildfire science. However, despite the ability of ML models to learn on their own, expertise in wildfire science is necessary to ensure realistic modelling of fire processes across multiple scales, while the complexity of some ML methods requires sophisticated knowledge for their application. Finally, we stress that the wildfire research and management community plays an active role in providing relevant, high quality data for use by practitioners of ML methods.


On Human Robot Interaction using Multiple Modes

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Today robotics is a vibrant field of research and it has tremendous application potentials not only in the area of industrial environment, battle field, construction industry and deep sea exploration but also in the household domain as a humanoid social robot. To be accepted in the household, the robots must have a higher level of intelligence and they must be capable of interacting people socially around it who is not supposed to be robot specialist. All these come under the field of human robot interaction (HRI). Our hypothesis is- "It is possible to design a multimodal human robot interaction framework, to effectively communicate with Humanoid Robots". In order to establish the above hypothesis speech and gesture have been used as a mode of interaction and throughout the thesis we validate our hypothesis by theoretical design and experimental verifications.


Time-Sensitive Bayesian Information Aggregation for Crowdsourcing Systems

Journal of Artificial Intelligence Research

Many aspects of the design of efficient crowdsourcing processes, such as defining worker’s bonuses, fair prices and time limits of the tasks, involve knowledge of the likely duration of the task at hand. In this work we introduce a new time–sensitive Bayesian aggregation method that simultaneously estimates a task’s duration and obtains reliable aggregations of crowdsourced judgments. Our method, called BCCTime, uses latent variables to represent the uncertainty about the workers’ completion time, the tasks’ duration and the workers’ accuracy. To relate the quality of a judgment to the time a worker spends on a task, our model assumes that each task is completed within a latent time window within which all workers with a propensity to genuinely attempt the labelling task (i.e., no spammers) are expected to submit their judgments. In contrast, workers with a lower propensity to valid labelling, such as spammers, bots or lazy labellers, are assumed to perform tasks considerably faster or slower than the time required by normal workers. Specifically, we use efficient message-passing Bayesian inference to learn approximate posterior probabilities of (i) the confusion matrix of each worker, (ii) the propensity to valid labelling of each worker, (iii) the unbiased duration of each task and (iv) the true label of each task. Using two real- world public datasets for entity linking tasks, we show that BCCTime produces up to 11% more accurate classifications and up to 100% more informative estimates of a task’s duration compared to state–of–the–art methods.