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The Application of Machine Learning Techniques for Predicting Match Results in Team Sport: A Review

Journal of Artificial Intelligence Research

Predicting the results of matches in sport is a challenging and interesting task. In this paper, we review a selection of studies from 1996 to 2019 that used machine learning for predicting match results in team sport. Considering both invasion sports and striking/fielding sports, we discuss commonly applied machine learning algorithms, as well as common approaches related to data and evaluation. Our study considers accuracies that have been achieved across different sports, and explores whether evidence exists to support the notion that outcomes of some sports may be inherently more difficult to predict. We also uncover common themes of future research directions and propose recommendations for future researchers. Although there remains a lack of benchmark datasets (apart from in soccer), and the differences between sports, datasets and features makes between-study comparisons difficult, as we discuss, it is possible to evaluate accuracy performance in other ways. Artificial Neural Networks were commonly applied in early studies, however, our findings suggest that a range of models should instead be compared. Selecting and engineering an appropriate feature set appears to be more important than having a large number of instances. For feature selection, we see potential for greater inter-disciplinary collaboration between sport performance analysis, a sub-discipline of sport science, and machine learning.


Bernstein Flows for Flexible Posteriors in Variational Bayes

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Variational inference (VI) is a technique to approximate difficult to compute posteriors by optimization. In contrast to MCMC, VI scales to many observations. In the case of complex posteriors, however, state-of-the-art VI approaches often yield unsatisfactory posterior approximations. This paper presents Bernstein flow variational inference (BF-VI), a robust and easy-to-use method, flexible enough to approximate complex multivariate posteriors. BF-VI combines ideas from normalizing flows and Bernstein polynomial-based transformation models. In benchmark experiments, we compare BF-VI solutions with exact posteriors, MCMC solutions, and state-of-the-art VI methods including normalizing flow based VI. We show for low-dimensional models that BF-VI accurately approximates the true posterior; in higher-dimensional models, BF-VI outperforms other VI methods. Further, we develop with BF-VI a Bayesian model for the semi-structured Melanoma challenge data, combining a CNN model part for image data with an interpretable model part for tabular data, and demonstrate for the first time how the use of VI in semi-structured models.


Model Architecture Adaption for Bayesian Neural Networks

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Bayesian Neural Networks (BNNs) offer a mathematically grounded framework to quantify the uncertainty of model predictions but come with a prohibitive computation cost for both training and inference. In this work, we show a novel network architecture search (NAS) that optimizes BNNs for both accuracy and uncertainty while having a reduced inference latency. Different from canonical NAS that optimizes solely for in-distribution likelihood, the proposed scheme searches for the uncertainty performance using both in- and out-of-distribution data. Our method is able to search for the correct placement of Bayesian layer(s) in a network. In our experiments, the searched models show comparable uncertainty quantification ability and accuracy compared to the state-of-the-art (deep ensemble). In addition, the searched models use only a fraction of the runtime compared to many popular BNN baselines, reducing the inference runtime cost by $2.98 \times$ and $2.92 \times$ respectively on the CIFAR10 dataset when compared to MCDropout and deep ensemble.


Mental Stress Detection using Data from Wearable and Non-wearable Sensors: A Review

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

This paper presents a comprehensive review of methods covering significant subjective and objective human stress detection techniques available in the literature. The methods for measuring human stress responses could include subjective questionnaires (developed by psychologists) and objective markers observed using data from wearable and non-wearable sensors. In particular, wearable sensor-based methods commonly use data from electroencephalography, electrocardiogram, galvanic skin response, electromyography, electrodermal activity, heart rate, heart rate variability, and photoplethysmography both individually and in multimodal fusion strategies. Whereas, methods based on non-wearable sensors include strategies such as analyzing pupil dilation and speech, smartphone data, eye movement, body posture, and thermal imaging. Whenever a stressful situation is encountered by an individual, physiological, physical, or behavioral changes are induced which help in coping with the challenge at hand. A wide range of studies has attempted to establish a relationship between these stressful situations and the response of human beings by using different kinds of psychological, physiological, physical, and behavioral measures. Inspired by the lack of availability of a definitive verdict about the relationship of human stress with these different kinds of markers, a detailed survey about human stress detection methods is conducted in this paper. In particular, we explore how stress detection methods can benefit from artificial intelligence utilizing relevant data from various sources. This review will prove to be a reference document that would provide guidelines for future research enabling effective detection of human stress conditions.


Tutorial on amortized optimization for learning to optimize over continuous domains

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Optimization is a ubiquitous modeling tool and is often deployed in settings which repeatedly solve similar instances of the same problem. Amortized optimization methods use learning to predict the solutions to problems in these settings. This leverages the shared structure between similar problem instances. In this tutorial, we will discuss the key design choices behind amortized optimization, roughly categorizing 1) models into fully-amortized and semi-amortized approaches, and 2) learning methods into regression-based and objectivebased. We then view existing applications through these foundations to draw connections between them, including for manifold optimization, variational inference, sparse coding, meta-learning, control, reinforcement learning, convex optimization, and deep equilibrium networks. This framing enables us easily see, for example, that the amortized inference in variational autoencoders is conceptually identical to value gradients in control and reinforcement learning as they both use fully-amortized models with an objective-based loss.


Black-box Bayesian inference for economic agent-based models

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Simulation models, in particular agent-based models, are gaining popularity in economics. The considerable flexibility they offer, as well as their capacity to reproduce a variety of empirically observed behaviours of complex systems, give them broad appeal, and the increasing availability of cheap computing power has made their use feasible. Yet a widespread adoption in real-world modelling and decision-making scenarios has been hindered by the difficulty of performing parameter estimation for such models. In general, simulation models lack a tractable likelihood function, which precludes a straightforward application of standard statistical inference techniques. Several recent works have sought to address this problem through the application of likelihood-free inference techniques, in which parameter estimates are determined by performing some form of comparison between the observed data and simulation output. However, these approaches are (a) founded on restrictive assumptions, and/or (b) typically require many hundreds of thousands of simulations. These qualities make them unsuitable for large-scale simulations in economics and can cast doubt on the validity of these inference methods in such scenarios. In this paper, we investigate the efficacy of two classes of black-box approximate Bayesian inference methods that have recently drawn significant attention within the probabilistic machine learning community: neural posterior estimation and neural density ratio estimation. We present benchmarking experiments in which we demonstrate that neural network based black-box methods provide state of the art parameter inference for economic simulation models, and crucially are compatible with generic multivariate time-series data. In addition, we suggest appropriate assessment criteria for future benchmarking of approximate Bayesian inference procedures for economic simulation models.


Visualizing the diversity of representations learned by Bayesian neural networks

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Explainable artificial intelligence (XAI) aims to make learning machines less opaque, and offers researchers and practitioners various tools to reveal the decision-making strategies of neural networks. In this work, we investigate how XAI methods can be used for exploring and visualizing the diversity of feature representations learned by Bayesian neural networks (BNNs). Our goal is to provide a global understanding of BNNs by making their decision-making strategies a) visible and tangible through feature visualizations and b) quantitatively measurable with a distance measure learned by contrastive learning. Our work provides new insights into the posterior distribution in terms of human-understandable feature information with regard to the underlying decision-making strategies. Our main findings are the following: 1) global XAI methods can be applied to explain the diversity of decision-making strategies of BNN instances, 2) Monte Carlo dropout exhibits increased diversity in feature representations compared to the multimodal posterior approximation of MultiSWAG, 3) the diversity of learned feature representations highly correlates with the uncertainty estimates, and 4) the inter-mode diversity of the multimodal posterior decreases as the network width increases, while the intra-mode diversity increases. Our findings are consistent with the recent deep neural networks theory, providing additional intuitions about what the theory implies in terms of humanly understandable concepts.


A deep mixture density network for outlier-corrected interpolation of crowd-sourced weather data

arXiv.org Machine Learning

As the costs of sensors and associated IT infrastructure decreases - as exemplified by the Internet of Things - increasing volumes of observational data are becoming available for use by environmental scientists. However, as the number of available observation sites increases, so too does the opportunity for data quality issues to emerge, particularly given that many of these sensors do not have the benefit of official maintenance teams. To realise the value of crowd sourced 'Internet of Things' type observations for environmental modelling, we require approaches that can automate the detection of outliers during the data modelling process so that they do not contaminate the true distribution of the phenomena of interest. To this end, here we present a Bayesian deep learning approach for spatio-temporal modelling of environmental variables with automatic outlier detection. Our approach implements a Gaussian-uniform mixture density network whose dual purposes - modelling the phenomenon of interest, and learning to classify and ignore outliers - are achieved simultaneously, each by specifically designed branches of our neural network. For our example application, we use the Met Office's Weather Observation Website data, an archive of observations from around 1900 privately run and unofficial weather stations across the British Isles. Using data on surface air temperature, we demonstrate how our deep mixture model approach enables the modelling of a highly skilled spatio-temporal temperature distribution without contamination from spurious observations. We hope that adoption of our approach will help unlock the potential of incorporating a wider range of observation sources, including from crowd sourcing, into future environmental models.


Maximizing information from chemical engineering data sets: Applications to machine learning

arXiv.org Machine Learning

It is well-documented how artificial intelligence can have (and already is having) a big impact on chemical engineering. But classical machine learning approaches may be weak for many chemical engineering applications. This review discusses how challenging data characteristics arise in chemical engineering applications. We identify four characteristics of data arising in chemical engineering applications that make applying classical artificial intelligence approaches difficult: (1) high variance, low volume data, (2) low variance, high volume data, (3) noisy/corrupt/missing data, and (4) restricted data with physics-based limitations. For each of these four data characteristics, we discuss applications where these data characteristics arise and show how current chemical engineering research is extending the fields of data science and machine learning to incorporate these challenges. Finally, we identify several challenges for future research.


Weight Expansion: A New Perspective on Dropout and Generalization

arXiv.org Machine Learning

While dropout is known to be a successful regularization technique, insights into the mechanisms that lead to this success are still lacking. We introduce the concept of weight expansion, an increase in the signed volume of a parallelotope spanned by the column or row vectors of the weight covariance matrix, and show that weight expansion is an effective means of increasing the generalization in a PAC-Bayesian setting. We provide a theoretical argument that dropout leads to weight expansion and extensive empirical support for the correlation between dropout and weight expansion. To support our hypothesis that weight expansion can be regarded as an indicator of the enhanced generalization capability endowed by dropout, and not just as a mere by-product, we have studied other methods that achieve weight expansion (resp. This suggests that dropout is an attractive regularizer, because it is a computationally cheap method for obtaining weight expansion. This insight justifies the role of dropout as a regularizer, while paving the way for identifying regularizers that promise improved generalization through weight expansion. Research on why dropout is so effective in improving the generalization ability of neural networks has been intensive. Many intriguing phenomena induced by dropout have also been studied in this research (Gao et al., 2019; Lengerich et al., 2020; Wei et al., 2020).