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A Review of Emergency Incident Prediction, Resource Allocation and Dispatch Models

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Emergency response to incidents such as accidents, medical calls, and fires is one of the most pressing problems faced by communities across the globe. In the last fifty years, researchers have developed statistical, analytical, and algorithmic approaches for designing emergency response management (ERM) systems. In this survey, we present models for incident prediction, resource allocation, and dispatch for emergency incidents. We highlight the strengths and weaknesses of prior work in this domain and explore the similarities and differences between different modeling paradigms. Finally, we present future research directions. To the best of our knowledge, our work is the first comprehensive survey that explores the entirety of ERM systems.


Neural Datalog Through Time: Informed Temporal Modeling via Logical Specification

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Learning how to predict future events from patterns of past events is difficult when the set of possible event types is large. Training an unrestricted neural model might overfit to spurious patterns. To exploit domain-specific knowledge of how past events might affect an event's present probability, we propose using a temporal deductive database to track structured facts over time. Rules serve to prove facts from other facts and from past events. Each fact has a time-varying state---a vector computed by a neural net whose topology is determined by the fact's provenance, including its experience of past events. The possible event types at any time are given by special facts, whose probabilities are neurally modeled alongside their states. In both synthetic and real-world domains, we show that neural probabilistic models derived from concise Datalog programs improve prediction by encoding appropriate domain knowledge in their architecture.


Event Prediction in the Big Data Era: A Systematic Survey

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Events are occurrences in specific locations, time, and semantics that nontrivially impact either our society or the nature, such as civil unrest, system failures, and epidemics. It is highly desirable to be able to anticipate the occurrence of such events in advance in order to reduce the potential social upheaval and damage caused. Event prediction, which has traditionally been prohibitively challenging, is now becoming a viable option in the big data era and is thus experiencing rapid growth. There is a large amount of existing work that focuses on addressing the challenges involved, including heterogeneous multi-faceted outputs, complex dependencies, and streaming data feeds. Most existing event prediction methods were initially designed to deal with specific application domains, though the techniques and evaluation procedures utilized are usually generalizable across different domains. However, it is imperative yet difficult to cross-reference the techniques across different domains, given the absence of a comprehensive literature survey for event prediction. This paper aims to provide a systematic and comprehensive survey of the technologies, applications, and evaluations of event prediction in the big data era. First, systematic categorization and summary of existing techniques are presented, which facilitate domain experts' searches for suitable techniques and help model developers consolidate their research at the frontiers. Then, comprehensive categorization and summary of major application domains are provided. Evaluation metrics and procedures are summarized and standardized to unify the understanding of model performance among stakeholders, model developers, and domain experts in various application domains. Finally, open problems and future directions for this promising and important domain are elucidated and discussed.


Modeling and Prediction of Human Driver Behavior: A Survey

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

We present a review and taxonomy of 200 models from the literature on driver behavior modeling. We begin by introducing a mathematical formulation based on the partially observable stochastic game, which serves as a common framework for comparing and contrasting different driver models. Our taxonomy is constructed around the core modeling tasks of state estimation, intention estimation, trait estimation, and motion prediction, and also discusses the auxiliary tasks of risk estimation, anomaly detection, behavior imitation and microscopic traffic simulation. Existing driver models are categorized based on the specific tasks they address and key attributes of their approach.


A Review on Computational Intelligence Techniques in Cloud and Edge Computing

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Cloud computing (CC) is a centralized computing paradigm that accumulates resources centrally and provides these resources to users through Internet. Although CC holds a large number of resources, it may not be acceptable by real-time mobile applications, as it is usually far away from users geographically. On the other hand, edge computing (EC), which distributes resources to the network edge, enjoys increasing popularity in the applications with low-latency and high-reliability requirements. EC provides resources in a decentralized manner, which can respond to users' requirements faster than the normal CC, but with limited computing capacities. As both CC and EC are resource-sensitive, several big issues arise, such as how to conduct job scheduling, resource allocation, and task offloading, which significantly influence the performance of the whole system. To tackle these issues, many optimization problems have been formulated. These optimization problems usually have complex properties, such as non-convexity and NP-hardness, which may not be addressed by the traditional convex optimization-based solutions. Computational intelligence (CI), consisting of a set of nature-inspired computational approaches, recently exhibits great potential in addressing these optimization problems in CC and EC. This paper provides an overview of research problems in CC and EC and recent progresses in addressing them with the help of CI techniques. Informative discussions and future research trends are also presented, with the aim of offering insights to the readers and motivating new research directions.


AI in FinTech: A Research Agenda

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Smart FinTech has emerged as a new area that synthesizes and transforms AI and finance, and broadly data science, machine learning, economics, etc. Smart FinTech also transforms and drives new economic and financial businesses, services and systems, and plays an increasingly important role in economy, technology and society transformation. This article presents a highly summarized research overview of smart FinTech, including FinTech businesses and challenges, various FinTech-associated data and repositories, FinTech-driven business decision and optimization, areas in smart FinTech, and research methods and techniques for smart FinTech.


Artificial Musical Intelligence: A Survey

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Computers have been used to analyze and create music since they were first introduced in the 1950s and 1960s. Beginning in the late 1990s, the rise of the Internet and large scale platforms for music recommendation and retrieval have made music an increasingly prevalent domain of machine learning and artificial intelligence research. While still nascent, several different approaches have been employed to tackle what may broadly be referred to as "musical intelligence." This article provides a definition of musical intelligence, introduces a taxonomy of its constituent components, and surveys the wide range of AI methods that can be, and have been, brought to bear in its pursuit, with a particular emphasis on machine learning methods.


Effective Learning of a GMRF Mixture Model

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Learning a Gaussian Mixture Model (GMM) is hard when the number of parameters is too large given the amount of available data. As a remedy, we propose restricting the GMM to a Gaussian Markov Random Field Mixture Model (GMRF-MM), as well as a new method for estimating the latter's sparse precision (i.e., inverse covariance) matrices. When the sparsity pattern of each matrix is known, we propose an efficient optimization method for the Maximum Likelihood Estimate (MLE) of that matrix. When it is unknown, we utilize the popular Graphical LASSO (GLASSO) to estimate that pattern. However, we show that even for a single Gaussian, when GLASSO is tuned to successfully estimate the sparsity pattern, it does so at the price of a substantial bias of the values of the nonzero entries of the matrix, and we show that this problem only worsens in a mixture setting. To overcome this, we discard the non-zero values estimated by GLASSO, keep only its pattern estimate and use it within the proposed MLE method. This yields an effective two-step procedure that removes the bias. We show that our "debiasing" approach outperforms GLASSO in both the single-GMRF and the GMRF-MM cases. We also show that when learning priors for image patches, our method outperforms GLASSO even if we merely use an educated guess about the sparsity pattern, and that our GMRF-MM outperforms the baseline GMM on real and synthetic high-dimensional datasets. Our code is available at \url{https://github.com/shahaffind/GMRF-MM}.


Applications of Probabilistic Programming (Master's thesis, 2015)

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

This thesis describes work on two applications of probabilistic programming: the learning of probabilistic program code given specifications, in particular program code of one-dimensional samplers; and the facilitation of sequential Monte Carlo inference with help of data-driven proposals. The latter is presented with experimental results on a linear Gaussian model and a non-parametric dependent Dirichlet process mixture of objects model for object recognition and tracking. In Chapter 1 we provide a brief introduction to probabilistic programming. In Chapter 2 we present an approach to automatic discovery of samplers in the form of probabilistic programs. We formulate a Bayesian approach to this problem by specifying a grammar-based prior over probabilistic program code. We use an approximate Bayesian computation method to learn the programs, whose executions generate samples that statistically match observed data or analytical characteristics of distributions of interest. In our experiments we leverage different probabilistic programming systems to perform Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling over the space of programs. Experimental results have demonstrated that, using the proposed methodology, we can learn approximate and even some exact samplers. Finally, we show that our results are competitive with regard to genetic programming methods. In Chapter 3, we describe a way to facilitate sequential Monte Carlo inference in probabilistic programming using data-driven proposals. In particular, we develop a distance-based proposal for the non-parametric dependent Dirichlet process mixture of objects model. We implement this approach in the probabilistic programming system Anglican, and show that for that model data-driven proposals provide significant performance improvements. We also explore the possibility of using neural networks to improve data-driven proposals.


Patient Similarity Analysis with Longitudinal Health Data

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Healthcare professionals have long envisioned using the enormous processing powers of computers to discover new facts and medical knowledge locked inside electronic health records. These vast medical archives contain time-resolved information about medical visits, tests and procedures, as well as outcomes, which together form individual patient journeys. By assessing the similarities among these journeys, it is possible to uncover clusters of common disease trajectories with shared health outcomes. The assignment of patient journeys to specific clusters may in turn serve as the basis for personalized outcome prediction and treatment selection. This procedure is a non-trivial computational problem, as it requires the comparison of patient data with multi-dimensional and multi-modal features that are captured at different times and resolutions. In this review, we provide a comprehensive overview of the tools and methods that are used in patient similarity analysis with longitudinal data and discuss its potential for improving clinical decision making.