Plotting

Results


Multi-Task Learning on Networks

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The multi-task learning (MTL) paradigm can be traced back to an early paper of Caruana (1997) in which it was argued that data from multiple tasks can be used with the aim to obtain a better performance over learning each task independently. A solution of MTL with conflicting objectives requires modelling the trade-off among them which is generally beyond what a straight linear combination can achieve. A theoretically principled and computationally effective strategy is finding solutions which are not dominated by others as it is addressed in the Pareto analysis. Multi-objective optimization problems arising in the multi-task learning context have specific features and require adhoc methods. The analysis of these features and the proposal of a new computational approach represent the focus of this work. Multi-objective evolutionary algorithms (MOEAs) can easily include the concept of dominance and therefore the Pareto analysis. The major drawback of MOEAs is a low sample efficiency with respect to function evaluations. The key reason for this drawback is that most of the evolutionary approaches do not use models for approximating the objective function. Bayesian Optimization takes a radically different approach based on a surrogate model, such as a Gaussian Process. In this thesis the solutions in the Input Space are represented as probability distributions encapsulating the knowledge contained in the function evaluations. In this space of probability distributions, endowed with the metric given by the Wasserstein distance, a new algorithm MOEA/WST can be designed in which the model is not directly on the objective function but in an intermediate Information Space where the objects from the input space are mapped into histograms. Computational results show that the sample efficiency and the quality of the Pareto set provided by MOEA/WST are significantly better than in the standard MOEA.


Prediction of Construction Cost for Field Canals Improvement Projects in Egypt

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Field canals improvement projects (FCIPs) are one of the ambitious projects constructed to save fresh water. To finance this project, Conceptual cost models are important to accurately predict preliminary costs at the early stages of the project. The first step is to develop a conceptual cost model to identify key cost drivers affecting the project. Therefore, input variables selection remains an important part of model development, as the poor variables selection can decrease model precision. The study discovered the most important drivers of FCIPs based on a qualitative approach and a quantitative approach. Subsequently, the study has developed a parametric cost model based on machine learning methods such as regression methods, artificial neural networks, fuzzy model and case-based reasoning.


An Exploratory Analysis of Biased Learners in Soft-Sensing Frames

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Data driven soft sensor design has recently gained immense popularity, due to advances in sensory devices, and a growing interest in data mining. While partial least squares (PLS) is traditionally used in the process literature for designing soft sensors, the statistical literature has focused on sparse learners, such as Lasso and relevance vector machine (RVM), to solve the high dimensional data problem. In the current study, predictive performances of three regression techniques, PLS, Lasso and RVM were assessed and compared under various offline and online soft sensing scenarios applied on datasets from five real industrial plants, and a simulated process. In offline learning, predictions of RVM and Lasso were found to be superior to those of PLS when a large number of time-lagged predictors were used. Online prediction results gave a slightly more complicated picture. It was found that the minimum prediction error achieved by PLS under moving window (MW), or just-in-time learning scheme was decreased up to ~5-10% using Lasso, or RVM. However, when a small MW size was used, or the optimum number of PLS components was as low as ~1, prediction performance of PLS surpassed RVM, which was found to yield occasional unstable predictions. PLS and Lasso models constructed via online parameter tuning generally did not yield better predictions compared to those constructed via offline tuning. We present evidence to suggest that retaining a large portion of the available process measurement data in the predictor matrix, instead of preselecting variables, would be more advantageous for sparse learners in increasing prediction accuracy. As a result, Lasso is recommended as a better substitute for PLS in soft sensors; while performance of RVM should be validated before online application.