Goto

Collaborating Authors

Results


Forecasting: theory and practice

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Forecasting has always been at the forefront of decision making and planning. The uncertainty that surrounds the future is both exciting and challenging, with individuals and organisations seeking to minimise risks and maximise utilities. The large number of forecasting applications calls for a diverse set of forecasting methods to tackle real-life challenges. This article provides a non-systematic review of the theory and the practice of forecasting. We provide an overview of a wide range of theoretical, state-of-the-art models, methods, principles, and approaches to prepare, produce, organise, and evaluate forecasts. We then demonstrate how such theoretical concepts are applied in a variety of real-life contexts. We do not claim that this review is an exhaustive list of methods and applications. However, we wish that our encyclopedic presentation will offer a point of reference for the rich work that has been undertaken over the last decades, with some key insights for the future of forecasting theory and practice. Given its encyclopedic nature, the intended mode of reading is non-linear. We offer cross-references to allow the readers to navigate through the various topics. We complement the theoretical concepts and applications covered by large lists of free or open-source software implementations and publicly-available databases.


Sport action mining: Dribbling recognition in soccer

#artificialintelligence

Recent advances in Computer Vision and Machine Learning empowered the use of image and positional data in several high-level analyses in Sports Science, such as player action classification, recognition of complex human movements, and tactical analysis of team sports. In the context of sports action analysis, the use of positional data allows new developments and opportunities by taking into account players' positions over time. Exploiting the positional data and its sequence in a systematic way, we proposed a framework that bridges association rule mining and action recognition. The proposed Sports Action Mining (SAM) framework is grounded on the usage of positional data for recognising actions, e.g., dribbling. We hypothesise that different sports actions could be modelled using a sequence of confidence levels computed from previous players' locations.


A Hybrid Model for Learning Embeddings and Logical Rules Simultaneously from Knowledge Graphs

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The problem of knowledge graph (KG) reasoning has been widely explored by traditional rule-based systems and more recently by knowledge graph embedding methods. While logical rules can capture deterministic behavior in a KG they are brittle and mining ones that infer facts beyond the known KG is challenging. Probabilistic embedding methods are effective in capturing global soft statistical tendencies and reasoning with them is computationally efficient. While embedding representations learned from rich training data are expressive, incompleteness and sparsity in real-world KGs can impact their effectiveness. We aim to leverage the complementary properties of both methods to develop a hybrid model that learns both high-quality rules and embeddings simultaneously. Our method uses a cross feedback paradigm wherein, an embedding model is used to guide the search of a rule mining system to mine rules and infer new facts. These new facts are sampled and further used to refine the embedding model. Experiments on multiple benchmark datasets show the effectiveness of our method over other competitive standalone and hybrid baselines. We also show its efficacy in a sparse KG setting and finally explore the connection with negative sampling.


AI-augmented human services

#artificialintelligence

The deputy director of a large county human services agency, she's been wrestling all week with staff turnover and media coverage about long wait times for services. Heading home on Friday evening, she worries that she might spend the rest of her career playing defense at work. After a Saturday morning of chauffeuring her kids to soccer games and music lessons, Natalie collapses on the couch. She relaxes to music from one of her favorite radio stations, wondering how Pandora always manages to serve up exactly the songs that fit her mood. After she's had a chance to unwind, Siri gives her the week's top headlines, reminds her that her niece's graduation is coming up, recommends a gift for the niece, and, when Natalie confirms the choice, places an order. Later, Natalie's fitness band reminds her that it's time to head to the gym for a session with her trainer. On the way to the gym, Waze alerts her to an accident ahead and automatically routes her around it.


Training a Multilingual Sportscaster: Using Perceptual Context to Learn Language

Journal of Artificial Intelligence Research

We present a novel framework for learning to interpret and generate language using only perceptual context as supervision. We demonstrate its capabilities by developing a system that learns to sportscast simulated robot soccer games in both English and Korean without any language-specific prior knowledge. Training employs only ambiguous supervision consisting of a stream of descriptive textual comments and a sequence of events extracted from the simulation trace. The system simultaneously establishes correspondences between individual comments and the events that they describe while building a translation model that supports both parsing and generation. We also present a novel algorithm for learning which events are worth describing. Human evaluations of the generated commentaries indicate they are of reasonable quality and in some cases even on par with those produced by humans for our limited domain.