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Forecasting: theory and practice

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Forecasting has always been at the forefront of decision making and planning. The uncertainty that surrounds the future is both exciting and challenging, with individuals and organisations seeking to minimise risks and maximise utilities. The large number of forecasting applications calls for a diverse set of forecasting methods to tackle real-life challenges. This article provides a non-systematic review of the theory and the practice of forecasting. We provide an overview of a wide range of theoretical, state-of-the-art models, methods, principles, and approaches to prepare, produce, organise, and evaluate forecasts. We then demonstrate how such theoretical concepts are applied in a variety of real-life contexts. We do not claim that this review is an exhaustive list of methods and applications. However, we wish that our encyclopedic presentation will offer a point of reference for the rich work that has been undertaken over the last decades, with some key insights for the future of forecasting theory and practice. Given its encyclopedic nature, the intended mode of reading is non-linear. We offer cross-references to allow the readers to navigate through the various topics. We complement the theoretical concepts and applications covered by large lists of free or open-source software implementations and publicly-available databases.


Artificial Intellgence -- Application in Life Sciences and Beyond. The Upper Rhine Artificial Intelligence Symposium UR-AI 2021

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The TriRhenaTech alliance presents the accepted papers of the 'Upper-Rhine Artificial Intelligence Symposium' held on October 27th 2021 in Kaiserslautern, Germany. Topics of the conference are applications of Artificial Intellgence in life sciences, intelligent systems, industry 4.0, mobility and others. The TriRhenaTech alliance is a network of universities in the Upper-Rhine Trinational Metropolitan Region comprising of the German universities of applied sciences in Furtwangen, Kaiserslautern, Karlsruhe, Offenburg and Trier, the Baden-Wuerttemberg Cooperative State University Loerrach, the French university network Alsace Tech (comprised of 14 'grandes \'ecoles' in the fields of engineering, architecture and management) and the University of Applied Sciences and Arts Northwestern Switzerland. The alliance's common goal is to reinforce the transfer of knowledge, research, and technology, as well as the cross-border mobility of students.


Artificial Intelligence in Healthcare Industry

#artificialintelligence

The transition to information-based healthcare delivery and administration has been expedited by technological advancements. AI/ML-driven information systems are critical to today's multidisciplinary approach to improving healthcare outcomes, which includes sophisticated imaging and genetic-based tailored therapy models. Artificial Intelligence is basically a great evolution in the field of computer science. AI has changed the way of computing and carrying out tasks easier as well as automated. Artificial Intelligence is a way in which a machine learns about patterns and ways and by using its intelligence produces desired results.


Natural Language Processing for Smart Healthcare

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Smart healthcare has achieved significant progress in recent years. Emerging artificial intelligence (AI) technologies enable various smart applications across various healthcare scenarios. As an essential technology powered by AI, natural language processing (NLP) plays a key role in smart healthcare due to its capability of analysing and understanding human language. In this work we review existing studies that concern NLP for smart healthcare from the perspectives of technique and application. We focus on feature extraction and modelling for various NLP tasks encountered in smart healthcare from a technical point of view. In the context of smart healthcare applications employing NLP techniques, the elaboration largely attends to representative smart healthcare scenarios, including clinical practice, hospital management, personal care, public health, and drug development. We further discuss the limitations of current works and identify the directions for future works.


On the Opportunities and Risks of Foundation Models

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

AI is undergoing a paradigm shift with the rise of models (e.g., BERT, DALL-E, GPT-3) that are trained on broad data at scale and are adaptable to a wide range of downstream tasks. We call these models foundation models to underscore their critically central yet incomplete character. This report provides a thorough account of the opportunities and risks of foundation models, ranging from their capabilities (e.g., language, vision, robotics, reasoning, human interaction) and technical principles(e.g., model architectures, training procedures, data, systems, security, evaluation, theory) to their applications (e.g., law, healthcare, education) and societal impact (e.g., inequity, misuse, economic and environmental impact, legal and ethical considerations). Though foundation models are based on standard deep learning and transfer learning, their scale results in new emergent capabilities,and their effectiveness across so many tasks incentivizes homogenization. Homogenization provides powerful leverage but demands caution, as the defects of the foundation model are inherited by all the adapted models downstream. Despite the impending widespread deployment of foundation models, we currently lack a clear understanding of how they work, when they fail, and what they are even capable of due to their emergent properties. To tackle these questions, we believe much of the critical research on foundation models will require deep interdisciplinary collaboration commensurate with their fundamentally sociotechnical nature.


AMMU -- A Survey of Transformer-based Biomedical Pretrained Language Models

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Transformer-based pretrained language models (PLMs) have started a new era in modern natural language processing (NLP). These models combine the power of transformers, transfer learning, and self-supervised learning (SSL). Following the success of these models in the general domain, the biomedical research community has developed various in-domain PLMs starting from BioBERT to the latest BioMegatron and CoderBERT models. We strongly believe there is a need for a survey paper that can provide a comprehensive survey of various transformer-based biomedical pretrained language models (BPLMs). In this survey, we start with a brief overview of foundational concepts like self-supervised learning, embedding layer and transformer encoder layers. We discuss core concepts of transformer-based PLMs like pretraining methods, pretraining tasks, fine-tuning methods, and various embedding types specific to biomedical domain. We introduce a taxonomy for transformer-based BPLMs and then discuss all the models. We discuss various challenges and present possible solutions. We conclude by highlighting some of the open issues which will drive the research community to further improve transformer-based BPLMs.


Knowledge-based Biomedical Data Science 2019

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Knowledge-based biomedical data science (KBDS) involves the design and implementation of computer systems that act as if they knew about biomedicine. Such systems depend on formally represented knowledge in computer systems, often in the form of knowledge graphs. Here we survey the progress in the last year in systems that use formally represented knowledge to address data science problems in both clinical and biological domains, as well as on approaches for creating knowledge graphs. Major themes include the relationships between knowledge graphs and machine learning, the use of natural language processing, and the expansion of knowledge-based approaches to novel domains, such as Chinese Traditional Medicine and biodiversity.


A 20-Year Community Roadmap for Artificial Intelligence Research in the US

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Decades of research in artificial intelligence (AI) have produced formidable technologies that are providing immense benefit to industry, government, and society. AI systems can now translate across multiple languages, identify objects in images and video, streamline manufacturing processes, and control cars. The deployment of AI systems has not only created a trillion-dollar industry that is projected to quadruple in three years, but has also exposed the need to make AI systems fair, explainable, trustworthy, and secure. Future AI systems will rightfully be expected to reason effectively about the world in which they (and people) operate, handling complex tasks and responsibilities effectively and ethically, engaging in meaningful communication, and improving their awareness through experience. Achieving the full potential of AI technologies poses research challenges that require a radical transformation of the AI research enterprise, facilitated by significant and sustained investment. These are the major recommendations of a recent community effort coordinated by the Computing Community Consortium and the Association for the Advancement of Artificial Intelligence to formulate a Roadmap for AI research and development over the next two decades.


Medical Knowledge Embedding Based on Recursive Neural Network for Multi-Disease Diagnosis

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The representation of knowledge based on first-order logic captures the richness of natural language and supports multiple probabilistic inference models. Although symbolic representation enables quantitative reasoning with statistical probability, it is difficult to utilize with machine learning models as they perform numerical operations. In contrast, knowledge embedding (i.e., high-dimensional and continuous vectors) is a feasible approach to complex reasoning that can not only retain the semantic information of knowledge but also establish the quantifiable relationship among them. In this paper, we propose recursive neural knowledge network (RNKN), which combines medical knowledge based on first-order logic with recursive neural network for multi-disease diagnosis. After RNKN is efficiently trained from manually annotated Chinese Electronic Medical Records (CEMRs), diagnosis-oriented knowledge embeddings and weight matrixes are learned. Experimental results verify that the diagnostic accuracy of RNKN is superior to that of some classical machine learning models and Markov logic network (MLN). The results also demonstrate that the more explicit the evidence extracted from CEMRs is, the better is the performance achieved. RNKN gradually exhibits the interpretation of knowledge embeddings as the number of training epochs increases.


AI in Medicine: The Spectrum of Challenges from Managed Care to Molecular Medicine

AI Magazine

AI has embraced medical applications from its inception, and some of the earliest work in successful application of AI technology occurred in medical contexts. Medicine in the twenty-first century will be very different than medicine in the late twentieth century. Fortunately, the technical challenges to AI that emerge are similar, and the prospects for success are high.