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Application of Machine Learning Methods in Inferring Surface Water Groundwater Exchanges using High Temporal Resolution Temperature Measurements

arXiv.org Machine Learning

We examine the ability of machine learning (ML) and deep learning (DL) algorithms to infer surface/ground exchange flux based on subsurface temperature observations. The observations and fluxes are produced from a high-resolution numerical model representing conditions in the Columbia River near the Department of Energy Hanford site located in southeastern Washington State. Random measurement error, of varying magnitude, is added to the synthetic temperature observations. The results indicate that both ML and DL methods can be used to infer the surface/ground exchange flux. DL methods, especially convolutional neural networks, outperform the ML methods when used to interpret noisy temperature data with a smoothing filter applied. However, the ML methods also performed well and they are can better identify a reduced number of important observations, which could be useful for measurement network optimization. Surprisingly, the ML and DL methods better inferred upward flux than downward flux. This is in direct contrast to previous findings using numerical models to infer flux from temperature observations and it may suggest that combined use of ML or DL inference with numerical inference could improve flux estimation beneath river systems.


Knowledge-Guided Dynamic Systems Modeling: A Case Study on Modeling River Water Quality

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Modeling real-world phenomena is a focus of many science and engineering efforts, such as ecological modeling and financial forecasting, to name a few. Building an accurate model for complex and dynamic systems improves understanding of underlying processes and leads to resource efficiency. Towards this goal, knowledge-driven modeling builds a model based on human expertise, yet is often suboptimal. At the opposite extreme, data-driven modeling learns a model directly from data, requiring extensive data and potentially generating overfitting. We focus on an intermediate approach, model revision, in which prior knowledge and data are combined to achieve the best of both worlds. In this paper, we propose a genetic model revision framework based on tree-adjoining grammar (TAG) guided genetic programming (GP), using the TAG formalism and GP operators in an effective mechanism to incorporate prior knowledge and make data-driven revisions in a way that complies with prior knowledge. Our framework is designed to address the high computational cost of evolutionary modeling of complex systems. Via a case study on the challenging problem of river water quality modeling, we show that the framework efficiently learns an interpretable model, with higher modeling accuracy than existing methods.