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Patterns, predictions, and actions: A story about machine learning

arXiv.org Machine Learning

This graduate textbook on machine learning tells a story of how patterns in data support predictions and consequential actions. Starting with the foundations of decision making, we cover representation, optimization, and generalization as the constituents of supervised learning. A chapter on datasets as benchmarks examines their histories and scientific bases. Self-contained introductions to causality, the practice of causal inference, sequential decision making, and reinforcement learning equip the reader with concepts and tools to reason about actions and their consequences. Throughout, the text discusses historical context and societal impact. We invite readers from all backgrounds; some experience with probability, calculus, and linear algebra suffices.


Anomaly Detection with Generative Adversarial Networks for Multivariate Time Series

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Today's Cyber-Physical Systems (CPSs) are large, complex, and affixed with networked sensors and actuators that are targets for cyber-attacks. Conventional detection techniques are unable to deal with the increasingly dynamic and complex nature of the CPSs. On the other hand, the networked sensors and actuators generate large amounts of data streams that can be continuously monitored for intrusion events. Unsupervised machine learning techniques can be used to model the system behaviour and classify deviant behaviours as possible attacks. In this work, we proposed a novel Generative Adversarial Networks-based Anomaly Detection (GAN-AD) method for such complex networked CPSs. We used LSTM-RNN in our GAN to capture the distribution of the multivariate time series of the sensors and actuators under normal working conditions of a CPS. Instead of treating each sensor's and actuator's time series independently, we model the time series of multiple sensors and actuators in the CPS concurrently to take into account of potential latent interactions between them. To exploit both the generator and the discriminator of our GAN, we deployed the GAN-trained discriminator together with the residuals between generator-reconstructed data and the actual samples to detect possible anomalies in the complex CPS. We used our GAN-AD to distinguish abnormal attacked situations from normal working conditions for a complex six-stage Secure Water Treatment (SWaT) system. Experimental results showed that the proposed strategy is effective in identifying anomalies caused by various attacks with high detection rate and low false positive rate as compared to existing methods.