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Representation Learning from Limited Educational Data with Crowdsourced Labels

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Representation learning has been proven to play an important role in the unprecedented success of machine learning models in numerous tasks, such as machine translation, face recognition and recommendation. The majority of existing representation learning approaches often require a large number of consistent and noise-free labels. However, due to various reasons such as budget constraints and privacy concerns, labels are very limited in many real-world scenarios. Directly applying standard representation learning approaches on small labeled data sets will easily run into over-fitting problems and lead to sub-optimal solutions. Even worse, in some domains such as education, the limited labels are usually annotated by multiple workers with diverse expertise, which yields noises and inconsistency in such crowdsourcing settings. In this paper, we propose a novel framework which aims to learn effective representations from limited data with crowdsourced labels. Specifically, we design a grouping based deep neural network to learn embeddings from a limited number of training samples and present a Bayesian confidence estimator to capture the inconsistency among crowdsourced labels. Furthermore, to expedite the training process, we develop a hard example selection procedure to adaptively pick up training examples that are misclassified by the model. Extensive experiments conducted on three real-world data sets demonstrate the superiority of our framework on learning representations from limited data with crowdsourced labels, comparing with various state-of-the-art baselines. In addition, we provide a comprehensive analysis on each of the main components of our proposed framework and also introduce the promising results it achieved in our real production to fully understand the proposed framework.


Joint introduction to Gaussian Processes and Relevance Vector Machines with Connections to Kalman filtering and other Kernel Smoothers

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The expressive power of Bayesian kernel-based methods has led them to become an important tool across many different facets of artificial intelligence, and useful to a plethora of modern application domains, providing both power and interpretability via uncertainty analysis. This article introduces and discusses two methods which straddle the areas of probabilistic Bayesian schemes and kernel methods for regression: Gaussian Processes and Relevance Vector Machines. Our focus is on developing a common framework with which to view these methods, via intermediate methods a probabilistic version of the well-known kernel ridge regression, and drawing connections among them, via dual formulations, and discussion of their application in the context of major tasks: regression, smoothing, interpolation, and filtering. Overall, we provide understanding of the mathematical concepts behind these models, and we summarize and discuss in depth different interpretations and highlight the relationship to other methods, such as linear kernel smoothers, Kalman filtering and Fourier approximations. Throughout, we provide numerous figures to promote understanding, and we make numerous recommendations to practitioners. Benefits and drawbacks of the different techniques are highlighted. To our knowledge, this is the most in-depth study of its kind to date focused on these two methods, and will be relevant to theoretical understanding and practitioners throughout the domains of data-science, signal processing, machine learning, and artificial intelligence in general.


Group Fairness by Probabilistic Modeling with Latent Fair Decisions

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Machine learning systems are increasingly being used to make impactful decisions such as loan applications and criminal justice risk assessments, and as such, ensuring fairness of these systems is critical. This is often challenging as the labels in the data are biased. This paper studies learning fair probability distributions from biased data by explicitly modeling a latent variable that represents a hidden, unbiased label. In particular, we aim to achieve demographic parity by enforcing certain independencies in the learned model. We also show that group fairness guarantees are meaningful only if the distribution used to provide those guarantees indeed captures the real-world data. In order to closely model the data distribution, we employ probabilistic circuits, an expressive and tractable probabilistic model, and propose an algorithm to learn them from incomplete data. We evaluate our approach on a synthetic dataset in which observed labels indeed come from fair labels but with added bias, and demonstrate that the fair labels are successfully retrieved. Moreover, we show on real-world datasets that our approach not only is a better model than existing methods of how the data was generated but also achieves competitive accuracy.


Unsupervised learning for vascular heterogeneity assessment of glioblastoma based on magnetic resonance imaging: The Hemodynamic Tissue Signature

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

This thesis focuses on the research and development of the Hemodynamic Tissue Signature (HTS) method: an unsupervised machine learning approach to describe the vascular heterogeneity of glioblastomas by means of perfusion MRI analysis. The HTS builds on the concept of habitats. An habitat is defined as a sub-region of the lesion with a particular MRI profile describing a specific physiological behavior. The HTS method delineates four habitats within the glioblastoma: the High Angiogenic Tumor (HAT) habitat, as the most perfused region of the enhancing tumor; the Low Angiogenic Tumor (LAT) habitat, as the region of the enhancing tumor with a lower angiogenic profile; the potentially Infiltrated Peripheral Edema (IPE) habitat, as the non-enhancing region adjacent to the tumor with elevated perfusion indexes; and the Vasogenic Peripheral Edema (VPE) habitat, as the remaining edema of the lesion with the lowest perfusion profile. The results of this thesis have been published in ten scientific contributions, including top-ranked journals and conferences in the areas of Medical Informatics, Statistics and Probability, Radiology & Nuclear Medicine, Machine Learning and Data Mining and Biomedical Engineering. An industrial patent registered in Spain (ES201431289A), Europe (EP3190542A1) and EEUU (US20170287133A1) was also issued, summarizing the efforts of the thesis to generate tangible assets besides the academic revenue obtained from research publications. Finally, the methods, technologies and original ideas conceived in this thesis led to the foundation of ONCOANALYTICS CDX, a company framed into the business model of companion diagnostics for pharmaceutical compounds, thought as a vehicle to facilitate the industrialization of the ONCOhabitats technology.


Large-scale empirical validation of Bayesian Network structure learning algorithms with noisy data

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Numerous Bayesian Network (BN) structure learning algorithms have been proposed in the literature over the past few decades. Each publication makes an empirical or theoretical case for the algorithm proposed in that publication and results across studies are often inconsistent in their claims about which algorithm is 'best'. This is partly because there is no agreed evaluation approach to determine their effectiveness. Moreover, each algorithm is based on a set of assumptions, such as complete data and causal sufficiency, and tend to be evaluated with data that conforms to these assumptions, however unrealistic these assumptions may be in the real world. As a result, it is widely accepted that synthetic performance overestimates real performance, although to what degree this may happen remains unknown. This paper investigates the performance of 15 structure learning algorithms. We propose a methodology that applies the algorithms to data that incorporates synthetic noise, in an effort to better understand the performance of structure learning algorithms when applied to real data. Each algorithm is tested over multiple case studies, sample sizes, types of noise, and assessed with multiple evaluation criteria. This work involved approximately 10,000 graphs with a total structure learning runtime of seven months. It provides the first large-scale empirical validation of BN structure learning algorithms under different assumptions of data noise. The results suggest that traditional synthetic performance may overestimate real-world performance by anywhere between 10% and more than 50%. They also show that while score-based learning is generally superior to constraint-based learning, a higher fitting score does not necessarily imply a more accurate causal graph. To facilitate comparisons with future studies, we have made all data, raw results, graphs and BN models freely available online.


Improved High Dimensional Discrete Bayesian Network Inference using Triplet Region Construction

Journal of Artificial Intelligence Research

Performing efficient inference on high dimensional discrete Bayesian Networks (BNs) is challenging. When using exact inference methods the space complexity can grow exponentially with the tree-width, thus making computation intractable. This paper presents a general purpose approximate inference algorithm, based on a new region belief approximation method, called Triplet Region Construction (TRC). TRC reduces the cluster space complexity for factorized models from worst-case exponential to polynomial by performing graph factorization and producing clusters of limited size. Unlike previous generations of region-based algorithms, TRC is guaranteed to converge and effectively addresses the region choice problem that bedevils other region-based algorithms used for BN inference. Our experiments demonstrate that it also achieves significantly more accurate results than competing algorithms.


A Review of Emergency Incident Prediction, Resource Allocation and Dispatch Models

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Emergency response to incidents such as accidents, medical calls, and fires is one of the most pressing problems faced by communities across the globe. In the last fifty years, researchers have developed statistical, analytical, and algorithmic approaches for designing emergency response management (ERM) systems. In this survey, we present models for incident prediction, resource allocation, and dispatch for emergency incidents. We highlight the strengths and weaknesses of prior work in this domain and explore the similarities and differences between different modeling paradigms. Finally, we present future research directions. To the best of our knowledge, our work is the first comprehensive survey that explores the entirety of ERM systems.


SDE-Net: Equipping Deep Neural Networks with Uncertainty Estimates

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Uncertainty quantification is a fundamental yet unsolved problem for deep learning. The Bayesian framework provides a principled way of uncertainty estimation but is often not scalable to modern deep neural nets (DNNs) that have a large number of parameters. Non-Bayesian methods are simple to implement but often conflate different sources of uncertainties and require huge computing resources. We propose a new method for quantifying uncertainties of DNNs from a dynamical system perspective. The core of our method is to view DNN transformations as state evolution of a stochastic dynamical system and introduce a Brownian motion term for capturing epistemic uncertainty. Based on this perspective, we propose a neural stochastic differential equation model (SDE-Net) which consists of (1) a drift net that controls the system to fit the predictive function; and (2) a diffusion net that captures epistemic uncertainty. We theoretically analyze the existence and uniqueness of the solution to SDE-Net. Our experiments demonstrate that the SDE-Net model can outperform existing uncertainty estimation methods across a series of tasks where uncertainty plays a fundamental role.


Handling of uncertainty in medical data using machine learning and probability theory techniques: A review of 30 years (1991-2020)

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Understanding data and reaching valid conclusions are of paramount importance in the present era of big data. Machine learning and probability theory methods have widespread application for this purpose in different fields. One critically important yet less explored aspect is how data and model uncertainties are captured and analyzed. Proper quantification of uncertainty provides valuable information for optimal decision making. This paper reviewed related studies conducted in the last 30 years (from 1991 to 2020) in handling uncertainties in medical data using probability theory and machine learning techniques. Medical data is more prone to uncertainty due to the presence of noise in the data. So, it is very important to have clean medical data without any noise to get accurate diagnosis. The sources of noise in the medical data need to be known to address this issue. Based on the medical data obtained by the physician, diagnosis of disease, and treatment plan are prescribed. Hence, the uncertainty is growing in healthcare and there is limited knowledge to address these problems. We have little knowledge about the optimal treatment methods as there are many sources of uncertainty in medical science. Our findings indicate that there are few challenges to be addressed in handling the uncertainty in medical raw data and new models. In this work, we have summarized various methods employed to overcome this problem. Nowadays, application of novel deep learning techniques to deal such uncertainties have significantly increased.


Assessing Safety-Critical Systems from Operational Testing: A Study on Autonomous Vehicles

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Context: Demonstrating high reliability and safety for safety-critical systems (SCSs) remains a hard problem. Diverse evidence needs to be combined in a rigorous way: in particular, results of operational testing with other evidence from design and verification. Growing use of machine learning in SCSs, by precluding most established methods for gaining assurance, makes operational testing even more important for supporting safety and reliability claims. Objective: We use Autonomous Vehicles (AVs) as a current example to revisit the problem of demonstrating high reliability. AVs are making their debut on public roads: methods for assessing whether an AV is safe enough are urgently needed. We demonstrate how to answer 5 questions that would arise in assessing an AV type, starting with those proposed by a highly-cited study. Method: We apply new theorems extending Conservative Bayesian Inference (CBI), which exploit the rigour of Bayesian methods while reducing the risk of involuntary misuse associated with now-common applications of Bayesian inference; we define additional conditions needed for applying these methods to AVs. Results: Prior knowledge can bring substantial advantages if the AV design allows strong expectations of safety before road testing. We also show how naive attempts at conservative assessment may lead to over-optimism instead; why extrapolating the trend of disengagements is not suitable for safety claims; use of knowledge that an AV has moved to a less stressful environment. Conclusion: While some reliability targets will remain too high to be practically verifiable, CBI removes a major source of doubt: it allows use of prior knowledge without inducing dangerously optimistic biases. For certain ranges of required reliability and prior beliefs, CBI thus supports feasible, sound arguments. Useful conservative claims can be derived from limited prior knowledge.