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The Future of AI Part 1

#artificialintelligence

It was reported that Venture Capital investments into AI related startups made a significant increase in 2018, jumping by 72% compared to 2017, with 466 startups funded from 533 in 2017. PWC moneytree report stated that that seed-stage deal activity in the US among AI-related companies rose to 28% in the fourth-quarter of 2018, compared to 24% in the three months prior, while expansion-stage deal activity jumped to 32%, from 23%. There will be an increasing international rivalry over the global leadership of AI. President Putin of Russia was quoted as saying that "the nation that leads in AI will be the ruler of the world". Billionaire Mark Cuban was reported in CNBC as stating that "the world's first trillionaire would be an AI entrepreneur".


FlexPool: A Distributed Model-Free Deep Reinforcement Learning Algorithm for Joint Passengers & Goods Transportation

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The growth in online goods delivery is causing a dramatic surge in urban vehicle traffic from last-mile deliveries. On the other hand, ride-sharing has been on the rise with the success of ride-sharing platforms and increased research on using autonomous vehicle technologies for routing and matching. The future of urban mobility for passengers and goods relies on leveraging new methods that minimize operational costs and environmental footprints of transportation systems. This paper considers combining passenger transportation with goods delivery to improve vehicle-based transportation. Even though the problem has been studied with a defined dynamics model of the transportation system environment, this paper considers a model-free approach that has been demonstrated to be adaptable to new or erratic environment dynamics. We propose FlexPool, a distributed model-free deep reinforcement learning algorithm that jointly serves passengers & goods workloads by learning optimal dispatch policies from its interaction with the environment. The proposed algorithm pools passengers for a ride-sharing service and delivers goods using a multi-hop transit method. These flexibilities decrease the fleet's operational cost and environmental footprint while maintaining service levels for passengers and goods. Through simulations on a realistic multi-agent urban mobility platform, we demonstrate that FlexPool outperforms other model-free settings in serving the demands from passengers & goods. FlexPool achieves 30% higher fleet utilization and 35% higher fuel efficiency in comparison to (i) model-free approaches where vehicles transport a combination of passengers & goods without the use of multi-hop transit, and (ii) model-free approaches where vehicles exclusively transport either passengers or goods.


Human-in-the-Loop Methods for Data-Driven and Reinforcement Learning Systems

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Recent successes combine reinforcement learning algorithms and deep neural networks, despite reinforcement learning not being widely applied to robotics and real world scenarios. This can be attributed to the fact that current state-of-the-art, end-to-end reinforcement learning approaches still require thousands or millions of data samples to converge to a satisfactory policy and are subject to catastrophic failures during training. Conversely, in real world scenarios and after just a few data samples, humans are able to either provide demonstrations of the task, intervene to prevent catastrophic actions, or simply evaluate if the policy is performing correctly. This research investigates how to integrate these human interaction modalities to the reinforcement learning loop, increasing sample efficiency and enabling real-time reinforcement learning in robotics and real world scenarios. This novel theoretical foundation is called Cycle-of-Learning, a reference to how different human interaction modalities, namely, task demonstration, intervention, and evaluation, are cycled and combined to reinforcement learning algorithms. Results presented in this work show that the reward signal that is learned based upon human interaction accelerates the rate of learning of reinforcement learning algorithms and that learning from a combination of human demonstrations and interventions is faster and more sample efficient when compared to traditional supervised learning algorithms. Finally, Cycle-of-Learning develops an effective transition between policies learned using human demonstrations and interventions to reinforcement learning. The theoretical foundation developed by this research opens new research paths to human-agent teaming scenarios where autonomous agents are able to learn from human teammates and adapt to mission performance metrics in real-time and in real world scenarios.


Modeling and Prediction of Human Driver Behavior: A Survey

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

We present a review and taxonomy of 200 models from the literature on driver behavior modeling. We begin by introducing a mathematical formulation based on the partially observable stochastic game, which serves as a common framework for comparing and contrasting different driver models. Our taxonomy is constructed around the core modeling tasks of state estimation, intention estimation, trait estimation, and motion prediction, and also discusses the auxiliary tasks of risk estimation, anomaly detection, behavior imitation and microscopic traffic simulation. Existing driver models are categorized based on the specific tasks they address and key attributes of their approach.


Learn to Earn: Enabling Coordination within a Ride Hailing Fleet

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The problem of optimizing social welfare objectives on multi sided ride hailing platforms such as Uber, Lyft, etc., is challenging, due to misalignment of objectives between drivers, passengers, and the platform itself. An ideal solution aims to minimize the response time for each hyper local passenger ride request, while simultaneously maintaining high demand satisfaction and supply utilization across the entire city. Economists tend to rely on dynamic pricing mechanisms that stifle price sensitive excess demand and resolve the supply demand imbalances emerging in specific neighborhoods. In contrast, computer scientists primarily view it as a demand prediction problem with the goal of preemptively repositioning supply to such neighborhoods using black box coordinated multi agent deep reinforcement learning based approaches. Here, we introduce explainability in the existing supply repositioning approaches by establishing the need for coordination between the drivers at specific locations and times. Explicit need based coordination allows our framework to use a simpler non deep reinforcement learning based approach, thereby enabling it to explain its recommendations ex post. Moreover, it provides envy free recommendations i.e., drivers at the same location and time do not envy one another's future earnings. Our experimental evaluation demonstrates the effectiveness, the robustness, and the generalizability of our framework. Finally, in contrast to previous works, we make available a reinforcement learning environment for end to end reproducibility of our work and to encourage future comparative studies.


Inertial Sensing Meets Artificial Intelligence: Opportunity or Challenge?

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The inertial navigation system (INS) has been widely used to provide self-contained and continuous motion estimation in intelligent transportation systems. Recently, the emergence of chip-level inertial sensors has expanded the relevant applications from positioning, navigation, and mobile mapping to location-based services, unmanned systems, and transportation big data. Meanwhile, benefit from the emergence of big data and the improvement of algorithms and computing power, artificial intelligence (AI) has become a consensus tool that has been successfully applied in various fields. This article reviews the research on using AI technology to enhance inertial sensing from various aspects, including sensor design and selection, calibration and error modeling, navigation and motion-sensing algorithms, multi-sensor information fusion, system evaluation, and practical application. Based on the over 30 representative articles selected from the nearly 300 related publications, this article summarizes the state of the art, advantages, and challenges on each aspect. Finally, it summarizes nine advantages and nine challenges of AI-enhanced inertial sensing and then points out future research directions.


A Survey of Algorithms for Black-Box Safety Validation

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Autonomous and semi-autonomous systems for safety-critical applications require rigorous testing before deployment. Due to the complexity of these systems, formal verification may be impossible and real-world testing may be dangerous during development. Therefore, simulation-based techniques have been developed that treat the system under test as a black box during testing. Safety validation tasks include finding disturbances to the system that cause it to fail (falsification), finding the most-likely failure, and estimating the probability that the system fails. Motivated by the prevalence of safety-critical artificial intelligence, this work provides a survey of state-of-the-art safety validation techniques with a focus on applied algorithms and their modifications for the safety validation problem. We present and discuss algorithms in the domains of optimization, path planning, reinforcement learning, and importance sampling. Problem decomposition techniques are presented to help scale algorithms to large state spaces, and a brief overview of safety-critical applications is given, including autonomous vehicles and aircraft collision avoidance systems. Finally, we present a survey of existing academic and commercially available safety validation tools.


A Survey on Autonomous Vehicle Control in the Era of Mixed-Autonomy: From Physics-Based to AI-Guided Driving Policy Learning

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

This paper serves as an introduction and overview of the potentially useful models and methodologies from artificial intelligence (AI) into the field of transportation engineering for autonomous vehicle (AV) control in the era of mixed autonomy. We will discuss state-of-the-art applications of AI-guided methods, identify opportunities and obstacles, raise open questions, and help suggest the building blocks and areas where AI could play a role in mixed autonomy. We divide the stage of autonomous vehicle (AV) deployment into four phases: the pure HVs, the HV-dominated, the AVdominated, and the pure AVs. This paper is primarily focused on the latter three phases. It is the first-of-its-kind survey paper to comprehensively review literature in both transportation engineering and AI for mixed traffic modeling. Models used for each phase are summarized, encompassing game theory, deep (reinforcement) learning, and imitation learning. While reviewing the methodologies, we primarily focus on the following research questions: (1) What scalable driving policies are to control a large number of AVs in mixed traffic comprised of human drivers and uncontrollable AVs? (2) How do we estimate human driver behaviors? (3) How should the driving behavior of uncontrollable AVs be modeled in the environment? (4) How are the interactions between human drivers and autonomous vehicles characterized? Hopefully this paper will not only inspire our transportation community to rethink the conventional models that are developed in the data-shortage era, but also reach out to other disciplines, in particular robotics and machine learning, to join forces towards creating a safe and efficient mixed traffic ecosystem.


An Introduction to Reinforcement Learning - Lex Fridman, MIT

#artificialintelligence

We were delighted to be joined by Lex Fridman at the San Francisco edition of the Deep Learning Summit, taking part in both a'Deep Dive' session, allowing for a great amount of attendee interaction and collaboration, alongside a fireside chat with OpenAI Co-Founder & Chief Scientist, Ilya Sutskever. The MIT Researcher shared his thoughts on recent developments in AI and its current standing, highlighting its growth in recent years. Lex then referenced, Lee Sedol, the South Korean 9th Dan GO player, whom at this time is the only human to ever beat AI at a video game, which has since become somewhat of an impossible task, describing this feat as a seminal moment and one which changed the course of not only deep learning but also reinforcement learning, increasing the social belief in the subsection of AI. Since then, of course, we have seen video games and tactically based games, including Starcraft become imperative in the development of AI. The comparison of Reinforcement Learning to Human Learning is something which we often come across, referenced by Lex as something which needed addressing, with humans seemingly learning through "very few examples" as opposed to the heavy data sets needed in AI, but why is that?


An online evolving framework for advancing reinforcement-learning based automated vehicle control

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

In this paper, an online evolving framework is proposed to detect and revise a controller's imperfect decision-making in advance. The framework consists of three modules: the evolving Finite State Machine (e-FSM), action-reviser, and controller modules. The e-FSM module evolves a stochastic model (e.g., Discrete-Time Markov Chain) from scratch by determining new states and identifying transition probabilities repeatedly. With the latest stochastic model and given criteria, the action-reviser module checks validity of the controller's chosen action by predicting future states. Then, if the chosen action is not appropriate, another action is inspected and selected. In order to show the advantage of the proposed framework, the Deep Deterministic Policy Gradient (DDPG) w/ and w/o the online evolving framework are applied to control an ego-vehicle in the car-following scenario where control criteria are set by speed and safety. Experimental results show that inappropriate actions chosen by the DDPG controller are detected and revised appropriately through our proposed framework, resulting in no control failures after a few iterations.