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Quantifying Uncertainty in Deep Spatiotemporal Forecasting

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Deep learning is gaining increasing popularity for spatiotemporal forecasting. However, prior works have mostly focused on point estimates without quantifying the uncertainty of the predictions. In high stakes domains, being able to generate probabilistic forecasts with confidence intervals is critical to risk assessment and decision making. Hence, a systematic study of uncertainty quantification (UQ) methods for spatiotemporal forecasting is missing in the community. In this paper, we describe two types of spatiotemporal forecasting problems: regular grid-based and graph-based. Then we analyze UQ methods from both the Bayesian and the frequentist point of view, casting in a unified framework via statistical decision theory. Through extensive experiments on real-world road network traffic, epidemics, and air quality forecasting tasks, we reveal the statistical and computational trade-offs for different UQ methods: Bayesian methods are typically more robust in mean prediction, while confidence levels obtained from frequentist methods provide more extensive coverage over data variations. Computationally, quantile regression type methods are cheaper for a single confidence interval but require re-training for different intervals. Sampling based methods generate samples that can form multiple confidence intervals, albeit at a higher computational cost.


Zero-Shot Knowledge Distillation from a Decision-Based Black-Box Model

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Knowledge distillation (KD) is a successful approach for deep neural network acceleration, with which a compact network (student) is trained by mimicking the softmax output of a pre-trained high-capacity network (teacher). In tradition, KD usually relies on access to the training samples and the parameters of the white-box teacher to acquire the transferred knowledge. However, these prerequisites are not always realistic due to storage costs or privacy issues in real-world applications. Here we propose the concept of decision-based black-box (DB3) knowledge distillation, with which the student is trained by distilling the knowledge from a black-box teacher (parameters are not accessible) that only returns classes rather than softmax outputs. We start with the scenario when the training set is accessible. We represent a sample's robustness against other classes by computing its distances to the teacher's decision boundaries and use it to construct the soft label for each training sample. After that, the student can be trained via standard KD. We then extend this approach to a more challenging scenario in which even accessing the training data is not feasible. We propose to generate pseudo samples distinguished by the teacher's decision boundaries to the largest extent and construct soft labels for them, which are used as the transfer set. We evaluate our approaches on various benchmark networks and datasets and experiment results demonstrate their effectiveness. Codes are available at: https://github.com/zwang84/zsdb3kd.


Few-NERD: A Few-Shot Named Entity Recognition Dataset

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Recently, considerable literature has grown up around the theme of few-shot named entity recognition (NER), but little published benchmark data specifically focused on the practical and challenging task. Current approaches collect existing supervised NER datasets and re-organize them to the few-shot setting for empirical study. These strategies conventionally aim to recognize coarse-grained entity types with few examples, while in practice, most unseen entity types are fine-grained. In this paper, we present Few-NERD, a large-scale human-annotated few-shot NER dataset with a hierarchy of 8 coarse-grained and 66 fine-grained entity types. Few-NERD consists of 188,238 sentences from Wikipedia, 4,601,160 words are included and each is annotated as context or a part of a two-level entity type. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first few-shot NER dataset and the largest human-crafted NER dataset. We construct benchmark tasks with different emphases to comprehensively assess the generalization capability of models. Extensive empirical results and analysis show that Few-NERD is challenging and the problem requires further research. We make Few-NERD public at https://ningding97.github.io/fewnerd/.


The State of AI Ethics Report (January 2021)

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The 3rd edition of the Montreal AI Ethics Institute's The State of AI Ethics captures the most relevant developments in AI Ethics since October 2020. It aims to help anyone, from machine learning experts to human rights activists and policymakers, quickly digest and understand the field's ever-changing developments. Through research and article summaries, as well as expert commentary, this report distills the research and reporting surrounding various domains related to the ethics of AI, including: algorithmic injustice, discrimination, ethical AI, labor impacts, misinformation, privacy, risk and security, social media, and more. In addition, The State of AI Ethics includes exclusive content written by world-class AI Ethics experts from universities, research institutes, consulting firms, and governments. Unique to this report is "The Abuse and Misogynoir Playbook," written by Dr. Katlyn Tuner (Research Scientist, Space Enabled Research Group, MIT), Dr. Danielle Wood (Assistant Professor, Program in Media Arts and Sciences; Assistant Professor, Aeronautics and Astronautics; Lead, Space Enabled Research Group, MIT) and Dr. Catherine D'Ignazio (Assistant Professor, Urban Science and Planning; Director, Data + Feminism Lab, MIT). The piece (and accompanying infographic), is a deep-dive into the historical and systematic silencing, erasure, and revision of Black women's contributions to knowledge and scholarship in the United Stations, and globally. Exposing and countering this Playbook has become increasingly important following the firing of AI Ethics expert Dr. Timnit Gebru (and several of her supporters) at Google. This report should be used not only as a point of reference and insight on the latest thinking in the field of AI Ethics, but should also be used as a tool for introspection as we aim to foster a more nuanced conversation regarding the impacts of AI on the world.


Predicting Flight Delay with Spatio-Temporal Trajectory Convolutional Network and Airport Situational Awareness Map

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

To model and forecast flight delays accurately, it is crucial to harness various vehicle trajectory and contextual sensor data on airport tarmac areas. These heterogeneous sensor data, if modelled correctly, can be used to generate a situational awareness map. Existing techniques apply traditional supervised learning methods onto historical data, contextual features and route information among different airports to predict flight delay are inaccurate and only predict arrival delay but not departure delay, which is essential to airlines. In this paper, we propose a vision-based solution to achieve a high forecasting accuracy, applicable to the airport. Our solution leverages a snapshot of the airport situational awareness map, which contains various trajectories of aircraft and contextual features such as weather and airline schedules. We propose an end-to-end deep learning architecture, TrajCNN, which captures both the spatial and temporal information from the situational awareness map. Additionally, we reveal that the situational awareness map of the airport has a vital impact on estimating flight departure delay. Our proposed framework obtained a good result (around 18 minutes error) for predicting flight departure delay at Los Angeles International Airport.


Understanding the role of individual units in a deep neural network

#artificialintelligence

Deep neural networks excel at finding hierarchical representations that solve complex tasks over large datasets. How can we humans understand these learned representations? In this work, we present network dissection, an analytic framework to systematically identify the semantics of individual hidden units within image classification and image generation networks. First, we analyze a convolutional neural network (CNN) trained on scene classification and discover units that match a diverse set of object concepts. We find evidence that the network has learned many object classes that play crucial roles in classifying scene classes. Second, we use a similar analytic method to analyze a generative adversarial network (GAN) model trained to generate scenes. By analyzing changes made when small sets of units are activated or deactivated, we find that objects can be added and removed from the output scenes while adapting to the context. Finally, we apply our analytic framework to understanding adversarial attacks and to semantic image editing. The code, trained model weights, and datasets needed to reproduce the results in this paper are public and available to download from GitHub at and at the project website at .


From Human-Computer Interaction to Human-AI Interaction: New Challenges and Opportunities for Enabling Human-Centered AI

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

While AI has benefited humans, it may also harm humans if not appropriately developed. We conducted a literature review of current related work in developing AI systems from an HCI perspective. Different from other approaches, our focus is on the unique characteristics of AI technology and the differences between non-AI computing systems and AI systems. We further elaborate on the human-centered AI (HCAI) approach that we proposed in 2019. Our review and analysis highlight unique issues in developing AI systems which HCI professionals have not encountered in non-AI computing systems. To further enable the implementation of HCAI, we promote the research and application of human-AI interaction (HAII) as an interdisciplinary collaboration. There are many opportunities for HCI professionals to play a key role to make unique contributions to the main HAII areas as we identified. To support future HCI practice in the HAII area, we also offer enhanced HCI methods and strategic recommendations. In conclusion, we believe that promoting the HAII research and application will further enable the implementation of HCAI, enabling HCI professionals to address the unique issues of AI systems and develop human-centered AI systems.


Accountable Error Characterization

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Customers of machine learning systems demand accountability from the companies employing these algorithms for various prediction tasks. Accountability requires understanding of system limit and condition of erroneous predictions, as customers are often interested in understanding the incorrect predictions, and model developers are absorbed in finding methods that can be used to get incremental improvements to an existing system. Therefore, we propose an accountable error characterization method, AEC, to understand when and where errors occur within the existing black-box models. AEC, as constructed with human-understandable linguistic features, allows the model developers to automatically identify the main sources of errors for a given classification system. It can also be used to sample for the set of most informative input points for a next round of training. We perform error detection for a sentiment analysis task using AEC as a case study. Our results on the sample sentiment task show that AEC is able to characterize erroneous predictions into human understandable categories and also achieves promising results on selecting erroneous samples when compared with the uncertainty-based sampling.


Class-Incremental Learning for Wireless Device Identification in IoT

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Deep Learning (DL) has been utilized pervasively in the Internet of Things (IoT). One typical application of DL in IoT is device identification from wireless signals, namely Non-cryptographic Device Identification (NDI). However, learning components in NDI systems have to evolve to adapt to operational variations, such a paradigm is termed as Incremental Learning (IL). Various IL algorithms have been proposed and many of them require dedicated space to store the increasing amount of historical data, and therefore, they are not suitable for IoT or mobile applications. However, conventional IL schemes can not provide satisfying performance when historical data are not available. In this paper, we address the IL problem in NDI from a new perspective, firstly, we provide a new metric to measure the degree of topological maturity of DNN models from the degree of conflict of class-specific fingerprints. We discover that an important cause for performance degradation in IL enabled NDI is owing to the conflict of devices' fingerprints. Second, we also show that the conventional IL schemes can lead to low topological maturity of DNN models in NDI systems. Thirdly, we propose a new Channel Separation Enabled Incremental Learning (CSIL) scheme without using historical data, in which our strategy can automatically separate devices' fingerprints in different learning stages and avoid potential conflict. Finally, We evaluated the effectiveness of the proposed framework using real data from ADS-B (Automatic Dependent Surveillance-Broadcast), an application of IoT in aviation. The proposed framework has the potential to be applied to accurate identification of IoT devices in a variety of IoT applications and services. Data and code available at IEEE Dataport (DOI: 10.21227/1bxc-ke87) and \url{https://github.com/pcwhy/CSIL}}


The Challenges and Opportunities of Human-Centered AI for Trustworthy Robots and Autonomous Systems

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The trustworthiness of Robots and Autonomous Systems (RAS) has gained a prominent position on many research agendas towards fully autonomous systems. This research systematically explores, for the first time, the key facets of human-centered AI (HAI) for trustworthy RAS. In this article, five key properties of a trustworthy RAS initially have been identified. RAS must be (i) safe in any uncertain and dynamic surrounding environments; (ii) secure, thus protecting itself from any cyber-threats; (iii) healthy with fault tolerance; (iv) trusted and easy to use to allow effective human-machine interaction (HMI), and (v) compliant with the law and ethical expectations. Then, the challenges in implementing trustworthy autonomous system are analytically reviewed, in respects of the five key properties, and the roles of AI technologies have been explored to ensure the trustiness of RAS with respects to safety, security, health and HMI, while reflecting the requirements of ethics in the design of RAS. While applications of RAS have mainly focused on performance and productivity, the risks posed by advanced AI in RAS have not received sufficient scientific attention. Hence, a new acceptance model of RAS is provided, as a framework for requirements to human-centered AI and for implementing trustworthy RAS by design. This approach promotes human-level intelligence to augment human's capacity. while focusing on contributions to humanity.