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The Application of Machine Learning Techniques for Predicting Match Results in Team Sport: A Review

Journal of Artificial Intelligence Research

Predicting the results of matches in sport is a challenging and interesting task. In this paper, we review a selection of studies from 1996 to 2019 that used machine learning for predicting match results in team sport. Considering both invasion sports and striking/fielding sports, we discuss commonly applied machine learning algorithms, as well as common approaches related to data and evaluation. Our study considers accuracies that have been achieved across different sports, and explores whether evidence exists to support the notion that outcomes of some sports may be inherently more difficult to predict. We also uncover common themes of future research directions and propose recommendations for future researchers. Although there remains a lack of benchmark datasets (apart from in soccer), and the differences between sports, datasets and features makes between-study comparisons difficult, as we discuss, it is possible to evaluate accuracy performance in other ways. Artificial Neural Networks were commonly applied in early studies, however, our findings suggest that a range of models should instead be compared. Selecting and engineering an appropriate feature set appears to be more important than having a large number of instances. For feature selection, we see potential for greater inter-disciplinary collaboration between sport performance analysis, a sub-discipline of sport science, and machine learning.


Generalized Causal Tree for Uplift Modeling

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Uplift modeling is crucial in various applications ranging from marketing and policy-making to personalized recommendations. The main objective is to learn optimal treatment allocations for a heterogeneous population. A primary line of existing work modifies the loss function of the decision tree algorithm to identify cohorts with heterogeneous treatment effects. Another line of work estimates the individual treatment effects separately for the treatment group and the control group using off-the-shelf supervised learning algorithms. The former approach that directly models the heterogeneous treatment effect is known to outperform the latter in practice. However, the existing tree-based methods are mostly limited to a single treatment and a single control use case, except for a handful of extensions to multiple discrete treatments. In this paper, we fill this gap in the literature by proposing a generalization to the tree-based approaches to tackle multiple discrete and continuous-valued treatments. We focus on a generalization of the well-known causal tree algorithm due to its desirable statistical properties, but our generalization technique can be applied to other tree-based approaches as well. We perform extensive experiments to showcase the efficacy of our method when compared to other methods.


Hierarchical Shrinkage: improving the accuracy and interpretability of tree-based methods

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Tree-based models such as decision trees and random forests (RF) are a cornerstone of modern machine-learning practice. To mitigate overfitting, trees are typically regularized by a variety of techniques that modify their structure (e.g. pruning). We introduce Hierarchical Shrinkage (HS), a post-hoc algorithm that does not modify the tree structure, and instead regularizes the tree by shrinking the prediction over each node towards the sample means of its ancestors. The amount of shrinkage is controlled by a single regularization parameter and the number of data points in each ancestor. Since HS is a post-hoc method, it is extremely fast, compatible with any tree growing algorithm, and can be used synergistically with other regularization techniques. Extensive experiments over a wide variety of real-world datasets show that HS substantially increases the predictive performance of decision trees, even when used in conjunction with other regularization techniques. Moreover, we find that applying HS to each tree in an RF often improves accuracy, as well as its interpretability by simplifying and stabilizing its decision boundaries and SHAP values. We further explain the success of HS in improving prediction performance by showing its equivalence to ridge regression on a (supervised) basis constructed of decision stumps associated with the internal nodes of a tree. All code and models are released in a full-fledged package available on Github (github.com/csinva/imodels)


Learn To Predict Breast Cancer Using Machine Learning

#artificialintelligence

Learn to build three Machine Learning models (Logistic regression, Decision Tree, Random Forest) from scratch - Free Course. Here you will learn to build three models that are Logistic regression model, the Decision Tree model, and Random Forest Classifier model using Scikit-learn to classify breast cancer as either Malignant or Benign. We will use the Breast Cancer Wisconsin (Diagnostic) Data Set from Kaggle. You should be familiar with the Python Programming language and you should have a theoretical understanding of the three algorithms that is Logistic regression model, Decision Tree model, and Random Forest Classifier model.


Marginal Effects for Non-Linear Prediction Functions

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Beta coefficients for linear regression models represent the ideal form of an interpretable feature effect. However, for non-linear models and especially generalized linear models, the estimated coefficients cannot be interpreted as a direct feature effect on the predicted outcome. Hence, marginal effects are typically used as approximations for feature effects, either in the shape of derivatives of the prediction function or forward differences in prediction due to a change in a feature value. While marginal effects are commonly used in many scientific fields, they have not yet been adopted as a model-agnostic interpretation method for machine learning models. This may stem from their inflexibility as a univariate feature effect and their inability to deal with the non-linearities found in black box models. We introduce a new class of marginal effects termed forward marginal effects. We argue to abandon derivatives in favor of better-interpretable forward differences. Furthermore, we generalize marginal effects based on forward differences to multivariate changes in feature values. To account for the non-linearity of prediction functions, we introduce a non-linearity measure for marginal effects. We argue against summarizing feature effects of a non-linear prediction function in a single metric such as the average marginal effect. Instead, we propose to partition the feature space to compute conditional average marginal effects on feature subspaces, which serve as conditional feature effect estimates.


Artificial Intelligence in Software Testing : Impact, Problems, Challenges and Prospect

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Artificial Intelligence (AI) is making a significant impact in multiple areas like medical, military, industrial, domestic, law, arts as AI is capable to perform several roles such as managing smart factories, driving autonomous vehicles, creating accurate weather forecasts, detecting cancer and personal assistants, etc. Software testing is the process of putting the software to test for some abnormal behaviour of the software. Software testing is a tedious, laborious and most time-consuming process. Automation tools have been developed that help to automate some activities of the testing process to enhance quality and timely delivery. Over time with the inclusion of continuous integration and continuous delivery (CI/CD) pipeline, automation tools are becoming less effective. The testing community is turning to AI to fill the gap as AI is able to check the code for bugs and errors without any human intervention and in a much faster way than humans. In this study, we aim to recognize the impact of AI technologies on various software testing activities or facets in the STLC. Further, the study aims to recognize and explain some of the biggest challenges software testers face while applying AI to testing. The paper also proposes some key contributions of AI in the future to the domain of software testing.


Towards a Science of Human-AI Decision Making: A Survey of Empirical Studies

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

As AI systems demonstrate increasingly strong predictive performance, their adoption has grown in numerous domains. However, in high-stakes domains such as criminal justice and healthcare, full automation is often not desirable due to safety, ethical, and legal concerns, yet fully manual approaches can be inaccurate and time consuming. As a result, there is growing interest in the research community to augment human decision making with AI assistance. Besides developing AI technologies for this purpose, the emerging field of human-AI decision making must embrace empirical approaches to form a foundational understanding of how humans interact and work with AI to make decisions. To invite and help structure research efforts towards a science of understanding and improving human-AI decision making, we survey recent literature of empirical human-subject studies on this topic. We summarize the study design choices made in over 100 papers in three important aspects: (1) decision tasks, (2) AI models and AI assistance elements, and (3) evaluation metrics. For each aspect, we summarize current trends, discuss gaps in current practices of the field, and make a list of recommendations for future research. Our survey highlights the need to develop common frameworks to account for the design and research spaces of human-AI decision making, so that researchers can make rigorous choices in study design, and the research community can build on each other's work and produce generalizable scientific knowledge. We also hope this survey will serve as a bridge for HCI and AI communities to work together to mutually shape the empirical science and computational technologies for human-AI decision making.


Modelling hetegeneous treatment effects by quantitle local polynomial decision tree and forest

arXiv.org Machine Learning

For example, the economic or social effects of a new drug trial, a new policy or even the effects of a new feature in an advertisement or software are all areas of interest to researchers.


MURAL: An Unsupervised Random Forest-Based Embedding for Electronic Health Record Data

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

A major challenge in embedding or visualizing clinical patient data is the heterogeneity of variable types including continuous lab values, categorical diagnostic codes, as well as missing or incomplete data. In particular, in EHR data, some variables are {\em missing not at random (MNAR)} but deliberately not collected and thus are a source of information. For example, lab tests may be deemed necessary for some patients on the basis of suspected diagnosis, but not for others. Here we present the MURAL forest -- an unsupervised random forest for representing data with disparate variable types (e.g., categorical, continuous, MNAR). MURAL forests consist of a set of decision trees where node-splitting variables are chosen at random, such that the marginal entropy of all other variables is minimized by the split. This allows us to also split on MNAR variables and discrete variables in a way that is consistent with the continuous variables. The end goal is to learn the MURAL embedding of patients using average tree distances between those patients. These distances can be fed to nonlinear dimensionality reduction method like PHATE to derive visualizable embeddings. While such methods are ubiquitous in continuous-valued datasets (like single cell RNA-sequencing) they have not been used extensively in mixed variable data. We showcase the use of our method on one artificial and two clinical datasets. We show that using our approach, we can visualize and classify data more accurately than competing approaches. Finally, we show that MURAL can also be used to compare cohorts of patients via the recently proposed tree-sliced Wasserstein distances.


Modeling Performance in Open-Domain Dialogue with PARADISE

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

There has recently been an explosion of work on spoken dialogue systems, along with an increased interest in open-domain systems that engage in casual conversations on popular topics such as movies, books and music. These systems aim to socially engage, entertain, and even empathize with their users. Since the achievement of such social goals is hard to measure, recent research has used dialogue length or human ratings as evaluation metrics, and developed methods for automatically calculating novel metrics, such as coherence, consistency, relevance and engagement. Here we develop a PARADISE model for predicting the performance of Athena, a dialogue system that has participated in thousands of conversations with real users, while competing as a finalist in the Alexa Prize. We use both user ratings and dialogue length as metrics for dialogue quality, and experiment with predicting these metrics using automatic features that are both system dependent and independent. Our goal is to learn a general objective function that can be used to optimize the dialogue choices of any Alexa Prize system in real time and evaluate its performance. Our best model for predicting user ratings gets an R$^2$ of .136 with a DistilBert model, and the best model for predicting length with system independent features gets an R$^2$ of .865, suggesting that conversation length may be a more reliable measure for automatic training of dialogue systems.