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Special Issue! Foundational Algorithms, Where They Came From, Where They're Going

#artificialintelligence

Years ago, I had to choose between a neural network and a decision tree learning algorithm. It was necessary to pick an efficient one, because we planned to apply the algorithm to a very large set of users on a limited compute budget. I went with a neural network. I hadn't used boosted decision trees in a while, and I thought they required more computation than they actually do -- so I made a bad call. Fortunately, my team quickly revised my decision, and the project was successful. This experience was a lesson in the importance of learning, and continually refreshing, foundational knowledge. If I had refreshed my familiarity with boosted trees, I would have made a better decision.


The Application of Machine Learning Techniques for Predicting Match Results in Team Sport: A Review

Journal of Artificial Intelligence Research

Predicting the results of matches in sport is a challenging and interesting task. In this paper, we review a selection of studies from 1996 to 2019 that used machine learning for predicting match results in team sport. Considering both invasion sports and striking/fielding sports, we discuss commonly applied machine learning algorithms, as well as common approaches related to data and evaluation. Our study considers accuracies that have been achieved across different sports, and explores whether evidence exists to support the notion that outcomes of some sports may be inherently more difficult to predict. We also uncover common themes of future research directions and propose recommendations for future researchers. Although there remains a lack of benchmark datasets (apart from in soccer), and the differences between sports, datasets and features makes between-study comparisons difficult, as we discuss, it is possible to evaluate accuracy performance in other ways. Artificial Neural Networks were commonly applied in early studies, however, our findings suggest that a range of models should instead be compared. Selecting and engineering an appropriate feature set appears to be more important than having a large number of instances. For feature selection, we see potential for greater inter-disciplinary collaboration between sport performance analysis, a sub-discipline of sport science, and machine learning.


Random Forests Weighted Local Fr\'echet Regression with Theoretical Guarantee

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Statistical analysis is increasingly confronted with complex data from general metric spaces, such as symmetric positive definite matrix-valued data and probability distribution functions. [47] and [17] establish a general paradigm of Fr\'echet regression with complex metric space valued responses and Euclidean predictors. However, their proposed local Fr\'echet regression approach involves nonparametric kernel smoothing and suffers from the curse of dimensionality. To address this issue, we in this paper propose a novel random forests weighted local Fr\'echet regression paradigm. The main mechanism of our approach relies on the adaptive kernels generated by random forests. Our first method utilizes these weights as the local average to solve the Fr\'echet mean, while the second method performs local linear Fr\'echet regression, making both methods locally adaptive. Our proposals significantly improve existing Fr\'echet regression methods. Based on the theory of infinite order U-processes and infinite order Mmn-estimator, we establish the consistency, rate of convergence, and asymptotic normality for our proposed random forests weighted Fr\'echet regression estimator, which covers the current large sample theory of random forests with Euclidean responses as a special case. Numerical studies show the superiority of our proposed two methods for Fr\'echet regression with several commonly encountered types of responses such as probability distribution functions, symmetric positive definite matrices, and sphere data. The practical merits of our proposals are also demonstrated through the application to the human mortality distribution data.


Generalized Causal Tree for Uplift Modeling

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Uplift modeling is crucial in various applications ranging from marketing and policy-making to personalized recommendations. The main objective is to learn optimal treatment allocations for a heterogeneous population. A primary line of existing work modifies the loss function of the decision tree algorithm to identify cohorts with heterogeneous treatment effects. Another line of work estimates the individual treatment effects separately for the treatment group and the control group using off-the-shelf supervised learning algorithms. The former approach that directly models the heterogeneous treatment effect is known to outperform the latter in practice. However, the existing tree-based methods are mostly limited to a single treatment and a single control use case, except for a handful of extensions to multiple discrete treatments. In this paper, we fill this gap in the literature by proposing a generalization to the tree-based approaches to tackle multiple discrete and continuous-valued treatments. We focus on a generalization of the well-known causal tree algorithm due to its desirable statistical properties, but our generalization technique can be applied to other tree-based approaches as well. We perform extensive experiments to showcase the efficacy of our method when compared to other methods.


Hierarchical Shrinkage: improving the accuracy and interpretability of tree-based methods

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Tree-based models such as decision trees and random forests (RF) are a cornerstone of modern machine-learning practice. To mitigate overfitting, trees are typically regularized by a variety of techniques that modify their structure (e.g. pruning). We introduce Hierarchical Shrinkage (HS), a post-hoc algorithm that does not modify the tree structure, and instead regularizes the tree by shrinking the prediction over each node towards the sample means of its ancestors. The amount of shrinkage is controlled by a single regularization parameter and the number of data points in each ancestor. Since HS is a post-hoc method, it is extremely fast, compatible with any tree growing algorithm, and can be used synergistically with other regularization techniques. Extensive experiments over a wide variety of real-world datasets show that HS substantially increases the predictive performance of decision trees, even when used in conjunction with other regularization techniques. Moreover, we find that applying HS to each tree in an RF often improves accuracy, as well as its interpretability by simplifying and stabilizing its decision boundaries and SHAP values. We further explain the success of HS in improving prediction performance by showing its equivalence to ridge regression on a (supervised) basis constructed of decision stumps associated with the internal nodes of a tree. All code and models are released in a full-fledged package available on Github (github.com/csinva/imodels)


Fairness implications of encoding protected categorical attributes

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Protected attributes are often presented as categorical features that need to be encoded before feeding them into a machine learning algorithm. Encoding these attributes is paramount as they determine the way the algorithm will learn from the data. Categorical feature encoding has a direct impact on the model performance and fairness. In this work, we compare the accuracy and fairness implications of the two most well-known encoders: one-hot encoding and target encoding. We distinguish between two types of induced bias that can arise while using these encodings and can lead to unfair models. The first type, irreducible bias, is due to direct group category discrimination and a second type, reducible bias, is due to large variance in less statistically represented groups. We take a deeper look into how regularization methods for target encoding can improve the induced bias while encoding categorical features. Furthermore, we tackle the problem of intersectional fairness that arises when mixing two protected categorical features leading to higher cardinality. This practice is a powerful feature engineering technique used for boosting model performance. We study its implications on fairness as it can increase both types of induced bias


Learn To Predict Breast Cancer Using Machine Learning

#artificialintelligence

Learn to build three Machine Learning models (Logistic regression, Decision Tree, Random Forest) from scratch - Free Course. Here you will learn to build three models that are Logistic regression model, the Decision Tree model, and Random Forest Classifier model using Scikit-learn to classify breast cancer as either Malignant or Benign. We will use the Breast Cancer Wisconsin (Diagnostic) Data Set from Kaggle. You should be familiar with the Python Programming language and you should have a theoretical understanding of the three algorithms that is Logistic regression model, Decision Tree model, and Random Forest Classifier model.


Marginal Effects for Non-Linear Prediction Functions

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Beta coefficients for linear regression models represent the ideal form of an interpretable feature effect. However, for non-linear models and especially generalized linear models, the estimated coefficients cannot be interpreted as a direct feature effect on the predicted outcome. Hence, marginal effects are typically used as approximations for feature effects, either in the shape of derivatives of the prediction function or forward differences in prediction due to a change in a feature value. While marginal effects are commonly used in many scientific fields, they have not yet been adopted as a model-agnostic interpretation method for machine learning models. This may stem from their inflexibility as a univariate feature effect and their inability to deal with the non-linearities found in black box models. We introduce a new class of marginal effects termed forward marginal effects. We argue to abandon derivatives in favor of better-interpretable forward differences. Furthermore, we generalize marginal effects based on forward differences to multivariate changes in feature values. To account for the non-linearity of prediction functions, we introduce a non-linearity measure for marginal effects. We argue against summarizing feature effects of a non-linear prediction function in a single metric such as the average marginal effect. Instead, we propose to partition the feature space to compute conditional average marginal effects on feature subspaces, which serve as conditional feature effect estimates.


Towards a Science of Human-AI Decision Making: A Survey of Empirical Studies

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

As AI systems demonstrate increasingly strong predictive performance, their adoption has grown in numerous domains. However, in high-stakes domains such as criminal justice and healthcare, full automation is often not desirable due to safety, ethical, and legal concerns, yet fully manual approaches can be inaccurate and time consuming. As a result, there is growing interest in the research community to augment human decision making with AI assistance. Besides developing AI technologies for this purpose, the emerging field of human-AI decision making must embrace empirical approaches to form a foundational understanding of how humans interact and work with AI to make decisions. To invite and help structure research efforts towards a science of understanding and improving human-AI decision making, we survey recent literature of empirical human-subject studies on this topic. We summarize the study design choices made in over 100 papers in three important aspects: (1) decision tasks, (2) AI models and AI assistance elements, and (3) evaluation metrics. For each aspect, we summarize current trends, discuss gaps in current practices of the field, and make a list of recommendations for future research. Our survey highlights the need to develop common frameworks to account for the design and research spaces of human-AI decision making, so that researchers can make rigorous choices in study design, and the research community can build on each other's work and produce generalizable scientific knowledge. We also hope this survey will serve as a bridge for HCI and AI communities to work together to mutually shape the empirical science and computational technologies for human-AI decision making.


Artificial Intellgence -- Application in Life Sciences and Beyond. The Upper Rhine Artificial Intelligence Symposium UR-AI 2021

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The TriRhenaTech alliance presents the accepted papers of the 'Upper-Rhine Artificial Intelligence Symposium' held on October 27th 2021 in Kaiserslautern, Germany. Topics of the conference are applications of Artificial Intellgence in life sciences, intelligent systems, industry 4.0, mobility and others. The TriRhenaTech alliance is a network of universities in the Upper-Rhine Trinational Metropolitan Region comprising of the German universities of applied sciences in Furtwangen, Kaiserslautern, Karlsruhe, Offenburg and Trier, the Baden-Wuerttemberg Cooperative State University Loerrach, the French university network Alsace Tech (comprised of 14 'grandes \'ecoles' in the fields of engineering, architecture and management) and the University of Applied Sciences and Arts Northwestern Switzerland. The alliance's common goal is to reinforce the transfer of knowledge, research, and technology, as well as the cross-border mobility of students.