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Forecasting: theory and practice

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Forecasting has always been at the forefront of decision making and planning. The uncertainty that surrounds the future is both exciting and challenging, with individuals and organisations seeking to minimise risks and maximise utilities. The large number of forecasting applications calls for a diverse set of forecasting methods to tackle real-life challenges. This article provides a non-systematic review of the theory and the practice of forecasting. We provide an overview of a wide range of theoretical, state-of-the-art models, methods, principles, and approaches to prepare, produce, organise, and evaluate forecasts. We then demonstrate how such theoretical concepts are applied in a variety of real-life contexts. We do not claim that this review is an exhaustive list of methods and applications. However, we wish that our encyclopedic presentation will offer a point of reference for the rich work that has been undertaken over the last decades, with some key insights for the future of forecasting theory and practice. Given its encyclopedic nature, the intended mode of reading is non-linear. We offer cross-references to allow the readers to navigate through the various topics. We complement the theoretical concepts and applications covered by large lists of free or open-source software implementations and publicly-available databases.


AWS rolls out Graviton2-powered EC2 instances for GPU-based workloads

ZDNet

Amazon Web Services on Monday said it's bringing a new set of EC2 instances into general availability, including Graviton2-based instances designed for GPU-based workloads. AWS highlighted a few workloads that G5g instances would serve well: For Android game streaming, the instances provide up to 30% lower cost per stream per hour than x86-based GPU instances, Amazon said. For ML inference, G5g instances are well-suited for models that are sensitive to CPU performance or leverage Nvidia's AI libraries. For graphics rendering, G5g instances are the most cost-effective option for AWS customers. The instances are compatible with a number of graphical and machine learning libraries on Linux, including NVENC, NVDEC, nvJPEG, OpenGL, Vulkan, CUDA, CuDNN, CuBLAS, and TensorRT.


When Creators Meet the Metaverse: A Survey on Computational Arts

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The metaverse, enormous virtual-physical cyberspace, has brought unprecedented opportunities for artists to blend every corner of our physical surroundings with digital creativity. This article conducts a comprehensive survey on computational arts, in which seven critical topics are relevant to the metaverse, describing novel artworks in blended virtual-physical realities. The topics first cover the building elements for the metaverse, e.g., virtual scenes and characters, auditory, textual elements. Next, several remarkable types of novel creations in the expanded horizons of metaverse cyberspace have been reflected, such as immersive arts, robotic arts, and other user-centric approaches fuelling contemporary creative outputs. Finally, we propose several research agendas: democratising computational arts, digital privacy, and safety for metaverse artists, ownership recognition for digital artworks, technological challenges, and so on. The survey also serves as introductory material for artists and metaverse technologists to begin creations in the realm of surrealistic cyberspace.


Multimodal Classification: Current Landscape, Taxonomy and Future Directions

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Multimodal classification research has been gaining popularity in many domains that collect more data from multiple sources including satellite imagery, biometrics, and medicine. However, the lack of consistent terminology and architectural descriptions makes it difficult to compare different existing solutions. We address these challenges by proposing a new taxonomy for describing such systems based on trends found in recent publications on multimodal classification. Many of the most difficult aspects of unimodal classification have not yet been fully addressed for multimodal datasets including big data, class imbalance, and instance level difficulty. We also provide a discussion of these challenges and future directions.


A Review on Edge Analytics: Issues, Challenges, Opportunities, Promises, Future Directions, and Applications

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Edge technology aims to bring Cloud resources (specifically, the compute, storage, and network) to the closed proximity of the Edge devices, i.e., smart devices where the data are produced and consumed. Embedding computing and application in Edge devices lead to emerging of two new concepts in Edge technology, namely, Edge computing and Edge analytics. Edge analytics uses some techniques or algorithms to analyze the data generated by the Edge devices. With the emerging of Edge analytics, the Edge devices have become a complete set. Currently, Edge analytics is unable to provide full support for the execution of the analytic techniques. The Edge devices cannot execute advanced and sophisticated analytic algorithms following various constraints such as limited power supply, small memory size, limited resources, etc. This article aims to provide a detailed discussion on Edge analytics. A clear explanation to distinguish between the three concepts of Edge technology, namely, Edge devices, Edge computing, and Edge analytics, along with their issues. Furthermore, the article discusses the implementation of Edge analytics to solve many problems in various areas such as retail, agriculture, industry, and healthcare. In addition, the research papers of the state-of-the-art edge analytics are rigorously reviewed in this article to explore the existing issues, emerging challenges, research opportunities and their directions, and applications.


Scalable Teacher Forcing Network for Semi-Supervised Large Scale Data Streams

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The large-scale data stream problem refers to high-speed information flow which cannot be processed in scalable manner under a traditional computing platform. This problem also imposes expensive labelling cost making the deployment of fully supervised algorithms unfeasible. On the other hand, the problem of semi-supervised large-scale data streams is little explored in the literature because most works are designed in the traditional single-node computing environments while also being fully supervised approaches. This paper offers Weakly Supervised Scalable Teacher Forcing Network (WeScatterNet) to cope with the scarcity of labelled samples and the large-scale data streams simultaneously. WeScatterNet is crafted under distributed computing platform of Apache Spark with a data-free model fusion strategy for model compression after parallel computing stage. It features an open network structure to address the global and local drift problems while integrating a data augmentation, annotation and auto-correction ($DA^3$) method for handling partially labelled data streams. The performance of WeScatterNet is numerically evaluated in the six large-scale data stream problems with only $25\%$ label proportions. It shows highly competitive performance even if compared with fully supervised learners with $100\%$ label proportions.


Quantum Computing Market worth $1,765 million by 2026 - Exclusive Report by MarketsandMarkets

#artificialintelligence

According to the new market research report "Quantum Computing Market with COVID-19 impact by Offering (Systems and Services), Deployment (On Premises and Cloud Based), Application, Technology, End-use Industry and Region - Global Forecast to 2026", published by MarketsandMarkets, the market is expected to grow from USD 472 million in 2021 to USD 1,765 million by 2026, at a CAGR of 30.2%. The early adoption of quantum computing in the banking and finance sector is expected to fuel the growth of the market globally. Other key factors contributing to the growth of the quantum computing market include rising investments by governments of different countries to carry out research and development activities related to quantum computing technology. Several companies are focusing on the adoption of QCaaS post-COVID-19. This, in turn, is expected to contribute to the growth of the quantum computing market.


A Framework for Behavioral Biometric Authentication using Deep Metric Learning on Mobile Devices

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Mobile authentication using behavioral biometrics has been an active area of research. Existing research relies on building machine learning classifiers to recognize an individual's unique patterns. However, these classifiers are not powerful enough to learn the discriminative features. When implemented on the mobile devices, they face new challenges from the behavioral dynamics, data privacy and side-channel leaks. To address these challenges, we present a new framework to incorporate training on battery-powered mobile devices, so private data never leaves the device and training can be flexibly scheduled to adapt the behavioral patterns at runtime. We re-formulate the classification problem into deep metric learning to improve the discriminative power and design an effective countermeasure to thwart side-channel leaks by embedding a noise signature in the sensing signals without sacrificing too much usability. The experiments demonstrate authentication accuracy over 95% on three public datasets, a sheer 15% gain from multi-class classification with less data and robustness against brute-force and side-channel attacks with 99% and 90% success, respectively. We show the feasibility of training with mobile CPUs, where training 100 epochs takes less than 10 mins and can be boosted 3-5 times with feature transfer. Finally, we profile memory, energy and computational overhead. Our results indicate that training consumes lower energy than watching videos and slightly higher energy than playing games.


GPT-3 Creative Fiction

#artificialintelligence

What if I told a story here, how would that story start?" Thus, the summarization prompt: "My second grader asked me what this passage means: …" When a given prompt isn't working and GPT-3 keeps pivoting into other modes of completion, that may mean that one hasn't constrained it enough by imitating a correct output, and one needs to go further; writing the first few words or sentence of the target output may be necessary.


Single-Layer Graph Convolutional Networks For Recommendation

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Graph Convolutional Networks (GCNs) and their variants have received significant attention and achieved start-of-the-art performances on various recommendation tasks. However, many existing GCN models tend to perform recursive aggregations among all related nodes, which arises severe computational burden. Moreover, they favor multi-layer architectures in conjunction with complicated modeling techniques. Though effective, the excessive amount of model parameters largely hinder their applications in real-world recommender systems. To this end, in this paper, we propose the single-layer GCN model which is able to achieve superior performance along with remarkably less complexity compared with existing models. Our main contribution is three-fold. First, we propose a principled similarity metric named distribution-aware similarity (DA similarity), which can guide the neighbor sampling process and evaluate the quality of the input graph explicitly. We also prove that DA similarity has a positive correlation with the final performance, through both theoretical analysis and empirical simulations. Second, we propose a simplified GCN architecture which employs a single GCN layer to aggregate information from the neighbors filtered by DA similarity and then generates the node representations. Moreover, the aggregation step is a parameter-free operation, such that it can be done in a pre-processing manner to further reduce red the training and inference costs. Third, we conduct extensive experiments on four datasets. The results verify that the proposed model outperforms existing GCN models considerably and yields up to a few orders of magnitude speedup in training, in terms of the recommendation performance.