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Multiwave COVID-19 Prediction via Social Awareness-Based Graph Neural Networks using Mobility and Web Search Data

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Recurring outbreaks of COVID-19 have posed enduring effects on global society, which calls for a predictor of pandemic waves using various data with early availability. Existing prediction models that forecast the first outbreak wave using mobility data may not be applicable to the multiwave prediction, because the evidence in the USA and Japan has shown that mobility patterns across different waves exhibit varying relationships with fluctuations in infection cases. Therefore, to predict the multiwave pandemic, we propose a Social Awareness-Based Graph Neural Network (SAB-GNN) that considers the decay of symptom-related web search frequency to capture the changes in public awareness across multiple waves. SAB-GNN combines GNN and LSTM to model the complex relationships among urban districts, inter-district mobility patterns, web search history, and future COVID-19 infections. We train our model to predict future pandemic outbreaks in the Tokyo area using its mobility and web search data from April 2020 to May 2021 across four pandemic waves collected by _ANONYMOUS_COMPANY_ under strict privacy protection rules. Results show our model outperforms other baselines including ST-GNN and MPNN+LSTM. Though our model is not computationally expensive (only 3 layers and 10 hidden neurons), the proposed model enables public agencies to anticipate and prepare for future pandemic outbreaks.


The Roaring 2020s: A Booming Decade May Follow Covid-19

#artificialintelligence

Will a boom follow Covid-19? A century ago the 1920s saw creative energies explode after the tragedies of the Spanish Flu and World War I. In big cities such as New York, London, Shanghai, Sydney and Tokyo, economic growth was palpable. New technologies such as cars and radios became common. So did a risk-on optimism.


News at a glance

Science

SCI COMMUN### COVID-19 Despite past safety concerns, the Brazilian Health Regulatory Agency (Anvisa) this week decided to allow the importation of 928,000 doses of Sputnik V, the Russian-made vaccine against the pandemic coronavirus. Brazil has one of the world's highest burdens of COVID-19, but only about 15% of its population has received a first dose of vaccine. In April, Anvisa had refused to allow the vaccine into the country, citing allegations that Sputnik V contained adenoviruses that could replicate and harm vaccinated people. But a Brazilian law enacted in March allows the country under certain conditions to selectively import vaccines that Anvisa has not yet authorized for emergency use. The agency will require the batches of vaccine to undergo a safety review by a Brazilian government lab. Anvisa lifted the import ban after pressure from 14 governors who had already made agreements to buy more than 67 million doses of Sputnik V, which more than 60 countries have approved for emergency use. > “It shows we are still fully on the wrong track.” > > Climate scientist Pieter Tans of the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, in The Washington Post, about May's atmospheric carbon dioxide reading of 419 parts per million, the highest in 63 years of modern recording despite pandemic lockdowns. ### Marine ecology Just 6 months into this year, an alarming 761 manatees have died on Florida's east coast—about 10% of the state's population of this unique vegetarian marine mammal. Most of this year's deaths, which already total more than all in 2020, occurred in the Indian River Lagoon, where about 2000 of these subtropical goliaths typically winter, basking in warm water discharged by a power plant. But increased concentrations of nutrient pollution have triggered algal blooms that block sunlight, decreasing the amount of seagrass, the manatees' main food there. They chose the warm water “even though they starved,” says Martine deWit, a veterinarian with the Florida Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission. In 2017, the administration of then-President Donald Trump downgraded the species from “endangered” to “threatened” under the Endangered Species Act, citing its growing population. But conservationists have called the move premature. ### Racial justice The National Football League (NFL) said last week that in awarding players compensation for brain injuries under a 2013 legal settlement, it will drop a practice that critics have assailed as racist. Under the “race-norming” policy, a scoring algorithm for dementia that physicians employed in assessing players assumed that Black men started their careers with cognitive skills inferior to those of their white counterparts, making it harder for them to show the same amount of injury-induced cognitive decline as white players and to qualify for monetary awards. A majority of the NFL's roughly 20,000 retirees are Black. In a statement, the NFL noted that race-norming has been used for decades by neuropsychologists, who compare patients' scores with averages for their age, gender, education, and race. The NFL says no “off-the-shelf” alternative exists, so it is convening a panel of eight neuropsychologists, three of them Black, to develop a new algorithm. It will be applied going forward and also retrospectively for Black players who would have received an award had they been white. Previously, the NFL appealed some Black players' claims if their cognitive scores had not been adjusted for race. To date, more than 2000 former players have filed for awards, but fewer than 600 have received them. ### Infectious diseases ![Figure][1] CREDITS: (GRAPHIC) N. DESAI/ SCIENCE ; (DATA) UNAIDS The world has made great progress against AIDS, but ambitious targets have been missed, says an analysis issued last week on the 40th anniversary of the emergence of the disease. The report by the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS) notes that 27.4 million of the 37.6 million people now living with HIV are receiving lifesaving antiretroviral treatment. That's a tripling since 2010, but it falls short of a UNAIDS target, set in 2015, of 30 million in treatment by 2020. Because HIV-infected people who receive antiretrovirals rarely transmit the virus, hitting the treatment target would have averted 3.2 million infections and 1 million deaths over the past 5 years, the report says. And, it says, in 2020 the coronavirus pandemic disrupted treatments and supplies of antiretrovirals, with many countries reporting dips in new diagnoses. ### Publishing Days after publishing a letter alleging Israel's actions had threatened the health of Palestinians, The Lancet removed it from its website, fearing that supporters of Israel would boycott the journal, three of the letter's co-authors asserted last week. The letter, published in March 2020, is still accessible in the ScienceDirect database operated by The Lancet 's owner, publishing giant Elsevier. It argued that Palestinians in the Gaza Strip were ill prepared to confront the COVID-19 pandemic because Israel's security operations had damaged Gaza's public health system. In a commentary last week in The BMJ , three authors—all of whom have worked with Palestinian aid organizations, and two of whom are physicians—said The Lancet 's editor-in-chief, Richard Horton, told them last year that a similar letter it published in 2014 had drawn boycott threats and taken a “traumatic” personal toll on its employees. The prestigious medical journal also published a letter in September 2020 that criticizes the removed letter; it remains on The Lancet 's website. The authors of the March 2020 letter praised other Lancet articles that focused on poor health conditions in Gaza. But they also complained of a double standard and called the letter's removal censorship and “a dangerous new precedent.” The Lancet did not respond before Science 's deadline to a request for comment. ### Public health A strategy for fighting dengue fever using bacteria-armed mosquitoes has passed its most rigorous test yet: a randomized controlled trial in Indonesia. Infecting Aedes aegypti mosquitoes with the bacterium Wolbachia pipientis renders them resistant to infection with the dengue virus and less likely to spread it to people. In previous studies, areas where Wolbachia -infected mosquitoes were released reported fewer cases of dengue than nearby untreated areas. In the new trial, conducted by the nonprofit World Mosquito Program, researchers divided a 26-kilometer area in Yogyakarta into 24 clusters and set out containers of Wolbachia -carrying mosquito eggs in 12 randomly selected clusters. Of people visiting primary care clinics with a fever, 2.3% of those living in the treated clusters tested positive for dengue virus, versus 9.4% of those from control areas—a 77% reduction in infections, the team reported this week in The New England Journal of Medicine . Researchers expect the bacterium will continue to reduce dengue incidence and may even eliminate it in the area: Infected insects pass Wolbachia to offspring, and it remains prevalent among the city's wild mosquitoes more than 3 years after the last egg release. ### Biodiversity An automated system that integrates robotics with machine learning, imaging, and a cutting-edge gene sequencer promises to help speed up the discovery of unknown species of insects, which make up an estimated 90% of all animal species yet to be cataloged. Scientists routinely collect thousands of animals in the field, then face long hours in the lab to identify the specimens. The new technology, called DiversityScanner, plucks individual insects from trays and compares their legs, antennae, and other features to known specimens to classify the insect into one of 14 types. An Oxford Nanopore Technologies sequencer then produces a species-identifying piece of DNA called a barcode. The data and an image of the insect are added to a database. Scientists still have to name and describe new species. Some researchers call the system, designed to be easy for labs to replicate with open-source technology and easily available parts, a potential game changer. The designers—Rudolf Meier, who is moving to Berlin's Museum of Natural History, and colleagues—described it in two preprints posted on bioRxiv in May. ### Anthropology Several people from Okinawa, Japan's southernmost prefecture, are stepping up pressure on Kyoto University to return the remains of 26 people from Okinawan burial caves and sites that were unearthed almost 100 years ago and taken to what was then Kyoto Imperial University for study. Some of the remains, a small portion of the 200 sets removed, are believed to be from the royal family of the Ryukyu Kingdom, which was absorbed into the Japanese empire in 1872. A 2018 lawsuit by a group of five Okinawans against Kyoto University is still pending; frustrated by its slow pace and the university's refusal to cooperate, plaintiffs held an online briefing last week to make their case to the international press. Holding the remains violates Japanese law and the United Nations Declaration on the Rights of Indigenous Peoples, says Yasukatsu Matsushima, an economist at Ryukoku University who leads the legal challenge. Very little research about the remains has been published, and nothing recently, Matsushima says. Kyoto University “does not consider that the bones were obtained illegally,” the institution wrote in a statement. ### Racial justice A prominent Black chemist withdrew from consideration for a professorship at the University of North Carolina (UNC), Chapel Hill, after its trustees did not endorse giving a tenured position to a high-profile journalist whose reporting on the United States's history of racism has raised controversy. UNC faculty informed its chancellor last week that the chemist, Lisa Jones of the University of Maryland, Baltimore, wrote them that the trustees' decision “does not seem in line with a school that says it is interested in diversity.” Her decision came after UNC proposed in January to give the tenured position in journalism to Nikole Hannah-Jones of The New York Times , winner of a Pulitzer Prize for her essay in the “1619 Project,” a 2019 series about slavery that she conceived. The trustees did not act on the proposal; some questioned her academic qualifications. UNC instead offered Hannah-Jones (who is not related to Lisa Jones) a nontenured, 5-year position. Faculty members protested and accused the trustees of submitting to criticism of Hannah-Jones by conservative voices. ### Astronomy In its first year of observations, from 2018 to 2019, the Canadian Hydrogen Intensity Mapping Experiment (CHIME) radio telescope in British Columbia detected 535 fast radio bursts (FRBs)—powerful flashes of radio waves from deep space—more than three times as many as were previously known, researchers announced this week at a meeting of the American Astronomical Society. The bursts are just milliseconds long, which makes it challenging to pinpoint their source. But after CHIME helped trace a nearby FRB to its source in our Galaxy last year, highly magnetized stellar relics called magnetars have emerged as a prime suspect. CHIME catches many FRBs by sweeping the sky with a wide field of view as Earth rotates. Its deep catalog is already paying off: FRBs that flash more than once last slightly longer and have a narrower range of frequencies than one-offs, supporting the idea that the bursts are produced through different mechanisms. ### Planetary science NASA's InSight lander, a mission to study the interior of Mars, got a sorely needed energy boost last month after the agency dusted off its solar panels with a clever technique akin to sandblasting. After InSight's power declined, NASA tried knocking off the dust by jostling the panels with motors originally used to deploy them—without luck. Passing dust devils have also done nothing to clear off the material. So mission engineers had to get crafty. They had the lander's robotic arm scoop up sand and drizzle it above a panel as the wind swept past at up to 21 kilometers per hour. The falling grains bounced off the panel, picking up and carrying away the smaller dust particles, NASA said last week. Controllers noticed an immediate bump in power and a gain of about 30 watt-hours of energy per sol, or martian day. The extra power could help the lander survive aphelion in July, when Mars is farthest from the Sun, and extend the mission for a third full year of listening for tiny marsquakes. [1]: pending:yes


Automating boring tasks made these Japan startup founders rich

The Japan Times

Japan's hot startup stocks have two things in common: They do business in areas that could be described as mundane, and they've pushed their founders into the league of the ultrawealthy. Take AI Inside Inc., which helps turn handwritten documents into electronic files. Or Rakus Co., whose goal is to help small and midsize enterprises with their bookkeeping and emailing services. Their shares have all more than doubled in the past year, enriching their founders and leading to talk of a burgeoning tech scene that's very different from Silicon Valley. While the companies are using technologies like artificial intelligence and cloud computing, they're applying them in less sexy ways.


Exotec raises $90 million to bring robotics and automation to more warehouses

#artificialintelligence

French robotics startup Exotec has raised $90 million in a round of funding led by London-based VC firm 83North. Founded out of Lille in 2015, Exotec develops autonomous industrial robots called Skypods that can move horizontally and vertically, and travel at speeds of up to 9mph. The robots constitute part of a "goods-to-person" picking system designed to improve productivity and reduce strain and physical exertion in human warehouse workers. Ecommerce has boomed in 2020 due in large part to COVID-19, with online merchants seeing a 42% year-on-year increase in sales last month in the U.S. alone -- data suggests that the global pandemic has led to an extra $107 billion in online sales since March. This surge in demand is good news for companies such as Exotec, which specialize in equipping large warehouses with the tools to pick and pack orders at scale.


SoftBank brings food service robot to labour-strapped Japan – IAM Network

#artificialintelligence

By Sam Nussey2 Min ReadTOKYO (Reuters) – SoftBank's robotics arm said on Monday it will bring a food service robot developed by California-based Bear Robotics to Japan as restaurants grapple with labour shortages and seek to ensure social distancing during the COVID-19 pandemic.Slideshow ( 3 images)The robot named Servi, which has layers of trays and is equipped with 3D cameras and Lidar sensors for navigation, will launch in January, SoftBank Group Corp said.Servi will cost 99,800 yen ($950) per month excluding tax on a three year plan.The launch leverages SoftBank's long experience in bringing overseas technology to Japan but reflects the shift away from CEO Masayoshi Son's earlier focus on humanoid robots.Servi has been tested by Japanese restaurant operators, including Seven & i Holdings at its Denny's chain, as the sector grapples with an aging workforce and deepening labour shortages.SoftBank's humanoid Pepper robot became the face of the company following its 2014 unveiling but failed to find a global customer base.The firm in 2018 announced cleaning robot Whiz, which employs technology from group portfolio company Brain Corp and has sold more than 10,000 units worldwide.SoftBank is touting the use of Whiz as a coronavirus countermeasure, …


Google Maps and DeepMind enhance AI capabilities to improve route calculations

ZDNet

It has been nearly 13 years since Google Maps started providing traffic data to help people navigate their way around, alongside providing detail about whether the traffic along the route is heavy or light, the estimated travel time, and the estimated time of arrival (ETAs). In a bid to further enhance those traffic prediction capabilities, Google and Alphabet's AI research lab DeepMind have improved real-time ETAs by up to 50% in places such as Sydney, Tokyo, Berlin, Jakarta, Sao Paulo, and Washington DC by using a machine learning technique known as graph neural networks. Google Maps product manager Johann Lau said Google Maps uses aggregate location data and historical traffic patterns to understand traffic conditions to determine current traffic estimates, but it previously did not account for what traffic may look like if a traffic jam were to occur while on the journey. "Our ETA predictions already have a very high accuracy bar -- in fact, we see that our predictions have been consistently accurate for over 97% of trips … this technique is what enables Google Maps to better predict whether or not you'll be affected by a slowdown that may not have even started yet," he said in a blog post. The researchers at DeepMind said by using graph neural networks, this allowed Google Maps to incorporate "relational learning biases to model the connectivity structure of real-world road networks."


COVID-19 Impact on Artificial Intelligence (AI) Market in BFSI Sector Manufacturing Cost Analysis Till 2025 - Press Release - Digital Journal

#artificialintelligence

JP Morgan, IP soft, Microsoft Corp., AWS, FUKOKU (Japan), Oracle Corp., Salesforce, IBM Corp., PALANTIR, Google LLC, INBENTA technologies, Intel, Amazon Web Services Inc., NEXT ITSegmental Analysis: -The Artificial Intelligence (AI) Market in BFSI Sector industry is segmented based on the applications, end-users, and type of products and services it offers. The report provides detailed data on the applications which drive the industry's growth. The report also discusses the products and services and end-users which make a significant contribution to the Artificial Intelligence (AI) Market in BFSI Sector industry revenue. The study also talks about new product developments in the industry.Market Breakdown Data by Types:


Coronavirus: Isolation and Aspiration

Slate

Why has Japan been less affected by the global pandemic than the United States? One theory suggests that the Japanese language has weakly aspirated consonants compared with English. Which might mean that Japanese people are less likely to "spray" while speaking and therefore less likely to transmit the virus. John looks at the linguistic evidence.


Stanley Chen posted on LinkedIn

#artificialintelligence

We are living in a age of information technology really advanced,how to making use of these advantagement of artificial intelligence technology to solute our human being the vital problems of both aging society and lower birth rates. Above those problems also happened in Japan,Taiwan and USA. If we don't arrange solutions these two things that will be dangerous for our national security guard and society healthcare. According to researching results artificial intelligence can do 1.detecting lung,skin cancers 2.analysing eye scans,X-ray 3.developing researching drug.