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Petropoulos, Fotios, Apiletti, Daniele, Assimakopoulos, Vassilios, Babai, Mohamed Zied, Barrow, Devon K., Taieb, Souhaib Ben, Bergmeir, Christoph, Bessa, Ricardo J., Bijak, Jakub, Boylan, John E., Browell, Jethro, Carnevale, Claudio, Castle, Jennifer L., Cirillo, Pasquale, Clements, Michael P., Cordeiro, Clara, Oliveira, Fernando Luiz Cyrino, De Baets, Shari, Dokumentov, Alexander, Ellison, Joanne, Fiszeder, Piotr, Franses, Philip Hans, Frazier, David T., Gilliland, Michael, Gönül, M. Sinan, Goodwin, Paul, Grossi, Luigi, Grushka-Cockayne, Yael, Guidolin, Mariangela, Guidolin, Massimo, Gunter, Ulrich, Guo, Xiaojia, Guseo, Renato, Harvey, Nigel, Hendry, David F., Hollyman, Ross, Januschowski, Tim, Jeon, Jooyoung, Jose, Victor Richmond R., Kang, Yanfei, Koehler, Anne B., Kolassa, Stephan, Kourentzes, Nikolaos, Leva, Sonia, Li, Feng, Litsiou, Konstantia, Makridakis, Spyros, Martin, Gael M., Martinez, Andrew B., Meeran, Sheik, Modis, Theodore, Nikolopoulos, Konstantinos, Önkal, Dilek, Paccagnini, Alessia, Panagiotelis, Anastasios, Panapakidis, Ioannis, Pavía, Jose M., Pedio, Manuela, Pedregal, Diego J., Pinson, Pierre, Ramos, Patrícia, Rapach, David E., Reade, J. James, Rostami-Tabar, Bahman, Rubaszek, Michał, Sermpinis, Georgios, Shang, Han Lin, Spiliotis, Evangelos, Syntetos, Aris A., Talagala, Priyanga Dilini, Talagala, Thiyanga S., Tashman, Len, Thomakos, Dimitrios, Thorarinsdottir, Thordis, Todini, Ezio, Arenas, Juan Ramón Trapero, Wang, Xiaoqian, Winkler, Robert L., Yusupova, Alisa, Ziel, Florian
Forecasting has always been at the forefront of decision making and planning. The uncertainty that surrounds the future is both exciting and challenging, with individuals and organisations seeking to minimise risks and maximise utilities. The large number of forecasting applications calls for a diverse set of forecasting methods to tackle real-life challenges. This article provides a non-systematic review of the theory and the practice of forecasting. We provide an overview of a wide range of theoretical, state-of-the-art models, methods, principles, and approaches to prepare, produce, organise, and evaluate forecasts. We then demonstrate how such theoretical concepts are applied in a variety of real-life contexts. We do not claim that this review is an exhaustive list of methods and applications. However, we wish that our encyclopedic presentation will offer a point of reference for the rich work that has been undertaken over the last decades, with some key insights for the future of forecasting theory and practice. Given its encyclopedic nature, the intended mode of reading is non-linear. We offer cross-references to allow the readers to navigate through the various topics. We complement the theoretical concepts and applications covered by large lists of free or open-source software implementations and publicly-available databases.
Its impact is drastic and real: Youtube's AIdriven recommendation system would present sports videos for days if one happens to watch a live baseball game on the platform ; email writing becomes much faster with machine learning (ML) based auto-completion ; many businesses have adopted natural language processing based chatbots as part of their customer services . AI has also greatly advanced human capabilities in complex decision-making processes ranging from determining how to allocate security resources to protect airports  to games such as poker  and Go . All such tangible and stunning progress suggests that an "AI summer" is happening. As some put it, "AI is the new electricity" . Meanwhile, in the past decade, an emerging theme in the AI research community is the so-called "AI for social good" (AI4SG): researchers aim at developing AI methods and tools to address problems at the societal level and improve the wellbeing of the society.
Document recommendation systems for locating relevant literature have mostly relied on methods developed a decade ago. This is largely due to the lack of a large offline gold-standard benchmark of relevant documents that cover a variety of research fields such that newly developed literature search techniques can be compared, improved and translated into practice. To overcome this bottleneck, we have established the RElevant LIterature SearcH consortium consisting of more than 1500 scientists from 84 countries, who have collectively annotated the relevance of over 180 000 PubMed-listed articles with regard to their respective seed (input) article/s. The majority of annotations were contributed by highly experienced, original authors of the seed articles. The collected data cover 76% of all unique PubMed Medical Subject Headings descriptors. No systematic biases were observed across different experience levels, research fields or time spent on annotations.
Opioid addiction is a severe public health threat in the U.S, causing massive deaths and many social problems. Accurate relapse prediction is of practical importance for recovering patients since relapse prediction promotes timely relapse preventions that help patients stay clean. In this paper, we introduce a Generative Adversarial Networks (GAN) model to predict the addiction relapses based on sentiment images and social influences. Experimental results on real social media data from Reddit.com demonstrate that the GAN model delivers a better performance than comparable alternative techniques. The sentiment images generated by the model show that relapse is closely connected with two emotions `joy' and `negative'. This work is one of the first attempts to predict relapses using massive social media data and generative adversarial nets. The proposed method, combined with knowledge of social media mining, has the potential to revolutionize the practice of opioid addiction prevention and treatment.
A lack of information exists about the health issues of lesbian, gay, bisexual, transgender, and queer (LGBTQ) people who are often excluded from national demographic assessments, health studies, and clinical trials. As a result, medical experts and researchers lack a holistic understanding of the health disparities facing these populations. Fortunately, publicly available social media data such as Twitter data can be utilized to support the decisions of public health policy makers and managers with respect to LGBTQ people. This research employs a computational approach to collect tweets from gay users on health-related topics and model these topics. To determine the nature of health-related information shared by men who have sex with men on Twitter, we collected thousands of tweets from 177 active users. We sampled these tweets using a framework that can be applied to other LGBTQ sub-populations in future research. We found 11 diseases in 7 categories based on ICD 10 that are in line with the published studies and official reports.
Sadilek, Adam (University of Rochester) | Kautz, Henry (University of Rochester) | DiPrete, Lauren (Southern Nevada Health District) | Labus, Brian (Southern Nevada Health District, Las Vegas, Nevada) | Portman, Eric (University of Rochester) | Teitel, Jack (University of Rochester) | Silenzio, Vincent (University of Nevada Las Vegas,)
Foodborne illness afflicts 48 million people annually in the U.S. alone. Over 128,000 are hospitalized and 3,000 die from the infection. While preventable with proper food safety practices, the traditional restaurant inspection process has limited impact given the predictability and low frequency of inspections, and the dynamic nature of the kitchen environment. Despite this reality, the inspection process has remained largely unchanged for decades. CDC has even identified food safety as one of seven ”winnable battles”; however, progress to date has been limited. In this work, we demonstrate significant improvements in food safety by marrying AI and the standard inspection process. We apply machine learning to Twitter data, develop a system that automatically detects venues likely to pose a public health hazard, and demonstrate its efficacy in the Las Vegas metropolitan area in a double-blind experiment conducted over three months in collaboration with Nevada’s health department. By contrast, previous research in this domain has been limited to indirect correlative validation using only aggregate statistics. We show that adaptive inspection process is 64 percent more effective at identifying problematic venues than the current state of the art. If fully deployed, our approach could prevent over 9,000 cases of foodborne illness and 557 hospitalizations annually in Las Vegas alone. Additionally, adaptive inspections result in unexpected benefits, including the identification of venues lacking permits, contagious kitchen staff, and fewer customer complaints filed with the Las Vegas health department.
Sadilek, Adam (University of Rochester) | Kautz, Henry (University of Rochester) | DiPrete, Lauren (Southern Nevada Health District, Las Vegas, Nevada) | Labus, Brian (Southern Nevada Health District, Las Vegas, Nevada) | Portman, Eric (University of Rochester) | Teitel, Jack (University of Rochester) | Silenzio, Vincent (University of Rochester)
Foodborne illness afflicts 48 million people annually in the U.S.alone. Over 128,000 are hospitalized and 3,000 die from the infection.While preventable with proper food safety practices, the traditional restaurant inspection process has limited impact given the predictability and low frequency of inspections, and the dynamic nature of the kitchen environment. Despite this reality, the inspection process has remained largely unchanged for decades. We apply machine learning to Twitter data and develop a system that automatically detects venues likely to pose a public health hazard.Health professionals subsequently inspect individual flagged venues in a double blind experiment spanning the entire Las Vegas metropolitan area over three months. By contrast, previous research in this domain has been limited to indirect correlative validation using only aggregate statistics. We show that adaptive inspection process is 63% more effective at identifying problematic venues than the current state of the art. The live deployment shows that if every inspection in Las Vegas became adaptive, we can prevent over 9,000 cases of foodborne illness and 557 hospitalizations annually. Additionally,adaptive inspections result in unexpected benefits, including the identification of venues lacking permits, contagious kitchen staff,and fewer customer complaints filed with the Las Vegas health department.
Social networking websites such as Twitter have invigorated a wide range of studies in recent years ranging from consumer opinions on products to tracking the spread of diseases. While sentiment analysis and opinion mining from tweets have been studied extensively, surveillance of beliefs, especially those related to public health, have received considerably less attention. In our previous work, we proposed a model for surveillance of health beliefs on Twitter relying on the use of hand-picked probe statements expressing various health-related propositions. In this work we extend our model to automatically discover various probes related to public health beliefs. We present a data driven approach based on two distinct datasets and study the prevalence of public belief, disbelief or doubt for newly discovered probe statements.