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A survey of unsupervised learning methods for high-dimensional uncertainty quantification in black-box-type problems

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Constructing surrogate models for uncertainty quantification (UQ) on complex partial differential equations (PDEs) having inherently high-dimensional $\mathcal{O}(10^{\ge 2})$ stochastic inputs (e.g., forcing terms, boundary conditions, initial conditions) poses tremendous challenges. The curse of dimensionality can be addressed with suitable unsupervised learning techniques used as a pre-processing tool to encode inputs onto lower-dimensional subspaces while retaining its structural information and meaningful properties. In this work, we review and investigate thirteen dimension reduction methods including linear and nonlinear, spectral, blind source separation, convex and non-convex methods and utilize the resulting embeddings to construct a mapping to quantities of interest via polynomial chaos expansions (PCE). We refer to the general proposed approach as manifold PCE (m-PCE), where manifold corresponds to the latent space resulting from any of the studied dimension reduction methods. To investigate the capabilities and limitations of these methods we conduct numerical tests for three physics-based systems (treated as black-boxes) having high-dimensional stochastic inputs of varying complexity modeled as both Gaussian and non-Gaussian random fields to investigate the effect of the intrinsic dimensionality of input data. We demonstrate both the advantages and limitations of the unsupervised learning methods and we conclude that a suitable m-PCE model provides a cost-effective approach compared to alternative algorithms proposed in the literature, including recently proposed expensive deep neural network-based surrogates and can be readily applied for high-dimensional UQ in stochastic PDEs.


A Neural Phillips Curve and a Deep Output Gap

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Many problems plague the estimation of Phillips curves. Among them is the hurdle that the two key components, inflation expectations and the output gap, are both unobserved. Traditional remedies include creating reasonable proxies for the notable absentees or extracting them via some form of assumptions-heavy filtering procedure. I propose an alternative route: a Hemisphere Neural Network (HNN) whose peculiar architecture yields a final layer where components can be interpreted as latent states within a Neural Phillips Curve. There are benefits. First, HNN conducts the supervised estimation of nonlinearities that arise when translating a high-dimensional set of observed regressors into latent states. Second, computations are fast. Third, forecasts are economically interpretable. Fourth, inflation volatility can also be predicted by merely adding a hemisphere to the model. Among other findings, the contribution of real activity to inflation appears severely underestimated in traditional econometric specifications. Also, HNN captures out-of-sample the 2021 upswing in inflation and attributes it first to an abrupt and sizable disanchoring of the expectations component, followed by a wildly positive gap starting from late 2020. HNN's gap unique path comes from dispensing with unemployment and GDP in favor of an amalgam of nonlinearly processed alternative tightness indicators -- some of which are skyrocketing as of early 2022.


Forecasting: theory and practice

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Forecasting has always been at the forefront of decision making and planning. The uncertainty that surrounds the future is both exciting and challenging, with individuals and organisations seeking to minimise risks and maximise utilities. The large number of forecasting applications calls for a diverse set of forecasting methods to tackle real-life challenges. This article provides a non-systematic review of the theory and the practice of forecasting. We provide an overview of a wide range of theoretical, state-of-the-art models, methods, principles, and approaches to prepare, produce, organise, and evaluate forecasts. We then demonstrate how such theoretical concepts are applied in a variety of real-life contexts. We do not claim that this review is an exhaustive list of methods and applications. However, we wish that our encyclopedic presentation will offer a point of reference for the rich work that has been undertaken over the last decades, with some key insights for the future of forecasting theory and practice. Given its encyclopedic nature, the intended mode of reading is non-linear. We offer cross-references to allow the readers to navigate through the various topics. We complement the theoretical concepts and applications covered by large lists of free or open-source software implementations and publicly-available databases.


Learning Operators with Coupled Attention

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Supervised operator learning is an emerging machine learning paradigm with applications to modeling the evolution of spatio-temporal dynamical systems and approximating general black-box relationships between functional data. We propose a novel operator learning method, LOCA (Learning Operators with Coupled Attention), motivated from the recent success of the attention mechanism. In our architecture, the input functions are mapped to a finite set of features which are then averaged with attention weights that depend on the output query locations. By coupling these attention weights together with an integral transform, LOCA is able to explicitly learn correlations in the target output functions, enabling us to approximate nonlinear operators even when the number of output function in the training set measurements is very small. Our formulation is accompanied by rigorous approximation theoretic guarantees on the universal expressiveness of the proposed model. Empirically, we evaluate the performance of LOCA on several operator learning scenarios involving systems governed by ordinary and partial differential equations, as well as a black-box climate prediction problem. Through these scenarios we demonstrate state of the art accuracy, robustness with respect to noisy input data, and a consistently small spread of errors over testing data sets, even for out-of-distribution prediction tasks.


Application of Machine Learning Methods in Inferring Surface Water Groundwater Exchanges using High Temporal Resolution Temperature Measurements

arXiv.org Machine Learning

We examine the ability of machine learning (ML) and deep learning (DL) algorithms to infer surface/ground exchange flux based on subsurface temperature observations. The observations and fluxes are produced from a high-resolution numerical model representing conditions in the Columbia River near the Department of Energy Hanford site located in southeastern Washington State. Random measurement error, of varying magnitude, is added to the synthetic temperature observations. The results indicate that both ML and DL methods can be used to infer the surface/ground exchange flux. DL methods, especially convolutional neural networks, outperform the ML methods when used to interpret noisy temperature data with a smoothing filter applied. However, the ML methods also performed well and they are can better identify a reduced number of important observations, which could be useful for measurement network optimization. Surprisingly, the ML and DL methods better inferred upward flux than downward flux. This is in direct contrast to previous findings using numerical models to infer flux from temperature observations and it may suggest that combined use of ML or DL inference with numerical inference could improve flux estimation beneath river systems.


Artificial Intellgence -- Application in Life Sciences and Beyond. The Upper Rhine Artificial Intelligence Symposium UR-AI 2021

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The TriRhenaTech alliance presents the accepted papers of the 'Upper-Rhine Artificial Intelligence Symposium' held on October 27th 2021 in Kaiserslautern, Germany. Topics of the conference are applications of Artificial Intellgence in life sciences, intelligent systems, industry 4.0, mobility and others. The TriRhenaTech alliance is a network of universities in the Upper-Rhine Trinational Metropolitan Region comprising of the German universities of applied sciences in Furtwangen, Kaiserslautern, Karlsruhe, Offenburg and Trier, the Baden-Wuerttemberg Cooperative State University Loerrach, the French university network Alsace Tech (comprised of 14 'grandes \'ecoles' in the fields of engineering, architecture and management) and the University of Applied Sciences and Arts Northwestern Switzerland. The alliance's common goal is to reinforce the transfer of knowledge, research, and technology, as well as the cross-border mobility of students.


Explainable AI for B5G/6G: Technical Aspects, Use Cases, and Research Challenges

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

When 5G began its commercialisation journey around 2020, the discussion on the vision of 6G also surfaced. Researchers expect 6G to have higher bandwidth, coverage, reliability, energy efficiency, lower latency, and, more importantly, an integrated "human-centric" network system powered by artificial intelligence (AI). Such a 6G network will lead to an excessive number of automated decisions made every second. These decisions can range widely, from network resource allocation to collision avoidance for self-driving cars. However, the risk of losing control over decision-making may increase due to high-speed data-intensive AI decision-making beyond designers and users' comprehension. The promising explainable AI (XAI) methods can mitigate such risks by enhancing the transparency of the black box AI decision-making process. This survey paper highlights the need for XAI towards the upcoming 6G age in every aspect, including 6G technologies (e.g., intelligent radio, zero-touch network management) and 6G use cases (e.g., industry 5.0). Moreover, we summarised the lessons learned from the recent attempts and outlined important research challenges in applying XAI for building 6G systems. This research aligns with goals 9, 11, 16, and 17 of the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (UN-SDG), promoting innovation and building infrastructure, sustainable and inclusive human settlement, advancing justice and strong institutions, and fostering partnership at the global level.


Scaling Language Models: Methods, Analysis & Insights from Training Gopher

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Natural language communication is core to intelligence, as it allows ideas to be efficiently shared between humans or artificially intelligent systems. The generality of language allows us to express many intelligence tasks as taking in natural language input and producing natural language output. Autoregressive language modelling -- predicting the future of a text sequence from its past -- provides a simple yet powerful objective that admits formulation of numerous cognitive tasks. At the same time, it opens the door to plentiful training data: the internet, books, articles, code, and other writing. However this training objective is only an approximation to any specific goal or application, since we predict everything in the sequence rather than only the aspects we care about. Yet if we treat the resulting models with appropriate caution, we believe they will be a powerful tool to capture some of the richness of human intelligence. Using language models as an ingredient towards intelligence contrasts with their original application: transferring text over a limited-bandwidth communication channel. Shannon's Mathematical Theory of Communication (Shannon, 1948) linked the statistical modelling of natural language with compression, showing that measuring the cross entropy of a language model is equivalent to measuring its compression rate.


Simulation Intelligence: Towards a New Generation of Scientific Methods

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The original "Seven Motifs" set forth a roadmap of essential methods for the field of scientific computing, where a motif is an algorithmic method that captures a pattern of computation and data movement. We present the "Nine Motifs of Simulation Intelligence", a roadmap for the development and integration of the essential algorithms necessary for a merger of scientific computing, scientific simulation, and artificial intelligence. We call this merger simulation intelligence (SI), for short. We argue the motifs of simulation intelligence are interconnected and interdependent, much like the components within the layers of an operating system. Using this metaphor, we explore the nature of each layer of the simulation intelligence operating system stack (SI-stack) and the motifs therein: (1) Multi-physics and multi-scale modeling; (2) Surrogate modeling and emulation; (3) Simulation-based inference; (4) Causal modeling and inference; (5) Agent-based modeling; (6) Probabilistic programming; (7) Differentiable programming; (8) Open-ended optimization; (9) Machine programming. We believe coordinated efforts between motifs offers immense opportunity to accelerate scientific discovery, from solving inverse problems in synthetic biology and climate science, to directing nuclear energy experiments and predicting emergent behavior in socioeconomic settings. We elaborate on each layer of the SI-stack, detailing the state-of-art methods, presenting examples to highlight challenges and opportunities, and advocating for specific ways to advance the motifs and the synergies from their combinations. Advancing and integrating these technologies can enable a robust and efficient hypothesis-simulation-analysis type of scientific method, which we introduce with several use-cases for human-machine teaming and automated science.


Roadmap on Signal Processing for Next Generation Measurement Systems

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Signal processing is a fundamental component of almost any sensor-enabled system, with a wide range of applications across different scientific disciplines. Time series data, images, and video sequences comprise representative forms of signals that can be enhanced and analysed for information extraction and quantification. The recent advances in artificial intelligence and machine learning are shifting the research attention towards intelligent, data-driven, signal processing. This roadmap presents a critical overview of the state-of-the-art methods and applications aiming to highlight future challenges and research opportunities towards next generation measurement systems. It covers a broad spectrum of topics ranging from basic to industrial research, organized in concise thematic sections that reflect the trends and the impacts of current and future developments per research field. Furthermore, it offers guidance to researchers and funding agencies in identifying new prospects.