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Time Series Analysis


Getting started with Time Series using Pandas

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This article aims to introduce some standard techniques used in time-series analysis and walks through the iterative steps required to manipulate and visualize time-series data. Maruti Suzuki India Limited, formerly known as Maruti Udyog Limited, is an automobile manufacturer in India. It is a 56.21% owned subsidiary of the Japanese car and motorcycle manufacturer Suzuki Motor Corporation. Fire up the editor of your choice and type in the following code to import the required libraries and data. The data has been taken from Kaggle.


An Intuitive Study of Time Series Analysis

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A time series data is a set of observation on the value that a variable takes of different time, such data may be collected at regular time intervals such as daily stock price, monthly money supply figures, annual GDP etc. Time series data have a natural temporal ordering. This makes time series analysis distinct from other common data analysis problems in which there is no natural order of the observation. In simple word we can say, the data which are collected in according to time is called time series data. On the other hand, the data which are collected by observing many subject at the same point of time is called cross sectional data. A time series is a set of observations meas ured at time or space intervals arranged in chrono logical order.


Detection of Anomalies in a Time Series Data using InfluxDB and Python

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Analysis of water and environmental data is an important aspect of many intelligent water and environmental system applications where inference from such analysis plays a significant role in decision making. Quite often these data that are collected through sensible sensors can be anomalous due to different reasons such as systems breakdown, malfunctioning of sensor detectors, and more. Regardless of their root causes, such data severely affect the results of the subsequent analysis. This paper demonstrates data cleaning and preparation for time-series data and further proposes cost-sensitive machine learning algorithms as a solution to detect anomalous data points in time-series data. The following models: Logistic Regression, Random Forest, Support Vector Machines have been modified to support the cost-sensitive learning which penalizes misclassified samples thereby minimizing the total misclassification cost. Our results showed that Random Forest outperformed the rest of the models at predicting the positive class (i.e anomalies). Applying predictive model improvement techniques like data oversampling seems to provide little or no improvement to the Random Forest model. Interestingly, with recursive feature elimination, we achieved a better model performance thereby reducing the dimensions in the data. Finally, with Influxdb and Kapacitor the data was ingested and streamed to generate new data points to further evaluate the model performance on unseen data, this will allow for early recognition of undesirable changes in the drinking water quality and will enable the water supply companies to rectify on a timely basis whatever undesirable changes abound.


The Future of Time Series Forecasting

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Editor's Note: Time series data analysis and forecasting have become increasingly important due to the massive production of time series data, and as continuous monitoring and collection of such data becomes more common, the need for more efficient analysis and forecasting will only increase. As a foremost expert on time series analysis and forecasting, Aileen Nielsen shares her thoughts on what's on the horizon for time series forecasting, from enhanced methodologies to the integration of time series forecasting into everyday life. We'd love to hear from you about what you think about this piece. There are many good quotes about the hopelessness of predicting the future, and yet I can't help wanting to share some thoughts about what's coming. Because time series forecasting has fewer expert practitioners than other areas of data science, there has been a drive to develop time series analysis and forecasting as a service that can be easily packaged and rolled out in an efficient way. For example, Amazon recently rolled out a time series prediction service, and it's not the only company to do so.


Learning summary features of time series for likelihood free inference

arXiv.org Machine Learning

There has been an increasing interest from the scientific community in using likelihood-free inference (LFI) to determine which parameters of a given simulator model could best describe a set of experimental data. Despite exciting recent results and a wide range of possible applications, an important bottleneck of LFI when applied to time series data is the necessity of defining a set of summary features, often hand-tailored based on domain knowledge. In this work, we present a data-driven strategy for automatically learning summary features from univariate time series and apply it to signals generated from autoregressive-moving-average (ARMA) models and the Van der Pol Oscillator. Our results indicate that learning summary features from data can compete and even outperform LFI methods based on hand-crafted values such as autocorrelation coefficients even in the linear case.


Formating and visualizing time series data

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Upfront I want to say what I am not covering in this section -- renaming columns, subsetting data, change of data types (e.g. To keep this writing focused on time series formating I will not cover them here, but if interested you could check out my previous article -- A checklist for data wrangling. As usual, I'm using pandas for data wrangling and I'll go with matplotlib and seaborn for visualization. For this exercise, I've downloaded an interesting dataset on monthly retail book sales (million US$) reported by book stores all across the US. The date range is between 1992 and 2018.


A Quick Introduction to Time Series Analysis

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In my first article on Time Series, I hope to introduce the basic ideas and definitions required to understand basic Time Series analysis. We will start with the essential and key mathematical definitions, which are required to implement more advanced models. The information will be introduced in a similar manner as it was in a McGill graduate course on the subject, and following the style of the textbook by Brockwell and Davis. A'Time Series' is a collection of observations indexed by time. The observations each occur at some time t, where t belongs to the set of allowed times, T. Note: T can be discrete in which case we have a discrete time series, or it could be continuous in the case of continuous time series.


Introduction to Time Series Analysis in Python - KDnuggets

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A time series is a series of data points indexed (or listed or graphed) in time order. Most commonly, a time series is a sequence taken at successive equally spaced points in time. Thus it is a sequence of discrete-time data. Examples of time series are heights of ocean tides, counts of sunspots, and the daily closing value of the Dow Jones Industrial Average. So any dataset in which is taken at successive equally spaced points in time.


Feature space approximation for kernel-based supervised learning

arXiv.org Machine Learning

We propose a method for the approximation of high- or even infinite-dimensional feature vectors, which play an important role in supervised learning. The goal is to reduce the size of the training data, resulting in lower storage consumption and computational complexity. Furthermore, the method can be regarded as a regularization technique, which improves the generalizability of learned target functions. We demonstrate significant improvements in comparison to the computation of data-driven predictions involving the full training data set. The method is applied to classification and regression problems from different application areas such as image recognition, system identification, and oceanographic time series analysis.


What is time-series data, and why are we building a time-series database (TSDB)?

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Like all good superheroes, every company has its own origin story explaining why they were created and how they grew over time. This article covers the origin story of QuestDB and frames it with an introduction to time series databases to show where we sit in that landscape today. Time series is a succession of data points ordered by time. These data points could be a succession of events from an application's users, the state of CPU and memory usage over time, financial trades recorded every microsecond, or sensors from a car emitting data about the vehicle acceleration and velocity. For that reason, time-series is synonymous with large amounts of data.