Showdown between Musk and Altman has rendered the world's most wealthy comical under egalitarian eye of court For the past couple of weeks, on the fourth floor of a courthouse on a quiet street in downtown Oakland, the world's richest man and one of the world's most valuable startups have been at war over the future of artificial intelligence. Being one of the reporters in the room has felt like watching an updated, opposite-coast version of Tom Wolfe's The Bonfire of the Vanities - ambition, ego, greed and the spectrum of social class on full display. The supporting cast has included Elon Musk fanboys, a stern judge and a who's-who of Silicon Valley's most influential people. All courtroom battles are theatre, but this one has proved to be a unique spectacle, with the judge chastising the lawyers for leading the witness, raising meritless objections and even too much coughing. With Musk on the stand, he griped that an opposing attorney had asked a leading question, to which the judge told him to "tell the jury you're not a lawyer".

Comparison of statistical distances can also enable distribution testing, quantification of distribution shifts, and provide methods to correct for distribution shift through domainadaptation[12]. Optimal transport theory provides a rich set of tools for comparing distributions inWasserstein Distance.

We study the minimax sample complexity of multicalibration in the batch setting. A learner observes $n$ i.i.d. samples from an unknown distribution and must output a (possibly randomized) predictor whose population multicalibration error, measured by Expected Calibration Error (ECE), is at most $\varepsilon$ with respect to a given family of groups. For every fixed $κ> 0$, in the regime $|G|\le \varepsilon^{-κ}$, we prove that $\widetildeΘ(\varepsilon^{-3})$ samples are necessary and sufficient, up to polylogarithmic factors. The lower bound holds even for randomized predictors, and the upper bound is realized by a randomized predictor obtained via an online-to-batch reduction. This separates the sample complexity of multicalibration from that of marginal calibration, which scales as $\widetildeΘ(\varepsilon^{-2})$, and shows that mean-ECE multicalibration is as difficult in the batch setting as it is in the online setting, in contrast to marginal calibration which is strictly more difficult in the online setting. In contrast we observe that for $κ= 0$, the sample complexity of multicalibration remains $\widetildeΘ(\varepsilon^{-2})$ exhibiting a sharp threshold phenomenon. More generally, we establish matching upper and lower bounds, up to polylogarithmic factors, for a weighted $L_p$ multicalibration metric for all $1 \le p \le 2$, with optimal exponent $3/p$. We also extend the lower-bound template to a regular class of elicitable properties, and combine it with the online upper bounds of Hu et al. (2025) to obtain matching bounds for calibrating properties including expectiles and bounded-density quantiles.

Diffusion models [1, 2, 3] have emerged as a powerful class of generative models, achieving state-of-the-art performance across a wide range of applications, including imaging [2] and scientific-data synthesis [4]. From a statistical perspective, they can be viewed as flexible nonparametric estimators of a (conditional) distribution via score estimation and reverse-time stochastic differential equations (SDEs) [5, 6]. Despite this expressive power, standard diffusion models are typically causality-agnostic: they learn a joint law without encoding the directional asymmetries required for causal interpretation. As a consequence, they do not, on their own, provide principled answers to interventional queries or support broader causal analyses, which are central to structural causal models (SCMs) [7]. When a causal ordering (or a directed acyclic graph) is available, it is natural to construct generative procedures that sample variables sequentially according to the causal factorisation. Such iterative, ordering-respecting approaches have been proposed using a variety of generative models, including generative adversarial networks [8], variational autoencoders [9], normalising flows [10], and diffusion-based constructions such as DDIM [11]. However, a rigorous statistical understandingof the advantages of exploitingsuch causalstructureand the inferential use of the resulting generator remain less developed.

Generative moment matching network (GMMN) is a deep generative model that differs from Generative Adversarial Network (GAN) by replacing the discriminator in GAN with a two-sample test based on kernel maximum mean discrepancy (MMD). Although some theoretical guarantees of MMD have been studied, the empirical performance of GMMN is still not as competitive as that of GAN on challenging and large benchmark datasets. The computational efficiency of GMMN is also less desirable in comparison with GAN, partially due to its requirement for a rather large batch size during the training. In this paper, we propose to improve both the model expressiveness of GMMN and its computational efficiency by introducing {\it adversarial kernel learning} techniques, as the replacement of a fixed Gaussian kernel in the original GMMN. The new approach combines the key ideas in both GMMN and GAN, hence we name it MMD-GAN. The new distance measure in MMD-GAN is a meaningful loss that enjoys the advantage of weak$^*$ topology and can be optimized via gradient descent with relatively small batch sizes. In our evaluation on multiple benchmark datasets, including MNIST, CIFAR-10, CelebA and LSUN, the performance of MMD-GAN significantly outperforms GMMN, and is competitive with other representative GAN works.

We explore the top-K rank aggregation problem in which one aims to recover a consistent ordering that focuses on top-K ranked items based on partially revealed preference information. We examine an M-wise comparison model that builds on the Plackett-Luce (PL) model where for each sample, M items are ranked according to their perceived utilities modeled as noisy observations of their underlying true utilities. As our result, we characterize the minimax optimality on the sample size for top-K ranking. The optimal sample size turns out to be inversely proportional to M. We devise an algorithm that effectively converts M-wise samples into pairwise ones and employs a spectral method using the refined data. In demonstrating its optimality, we develop a novel technique for deriving tight $\ell_\infty$ estimation error bounds, which is key to accurately analyzing the performance of top-K ranking algorithms, but has been challenging. Recent work relied on an additional maximum-likelihood estimation (MLE) stage merged with a spectral method to attain good estimates in $\ell_\infty$ error to achieve the limit for the pairwise model. In contrast, although it is valid in slightly restricted regimes, our result demonstrates a spectral method alone to be sufficient for the general M-wise model. We run numerical experiments using synthetic data and confirm that the optimal sample size decreases at the rate of 1/M. Moreover, running our algorithm on real-world data, we find that its applicability extends to settings that may not fit the PL model.

We introduce an efficient algorithmic framework for model selection in online learning, also known as parameter-free online learning. Departing from previous work, which has focused on highly structured function classes such as nested balls in Hilbert space, we propose a generic meta-algorithm framework that achieves online model selection oracle inequalities under minimal structural assumptions. We give the first computationally efficient parameter-free algorithms that work in arbitrary Banach spaces under mild smoothness assumptions; previous results applied only to Hilbert spaces. We further derive new oracle inequalities for matrix classes, non-nested convex sets, and $\mathbb{R}^{d}$ with generic regularizers. Finally, we generalize these results by providing oracle inequalities for arbitrary non-linear classes in the online supervised learning model. These results are all derived through a unified meta-algorithm scheme using a novel multi-scale algorithm for prediction with expert advice based on random playout, which may be of independent interest.

Deep learning methods achieve state-of-the-art performance in many application scenarios. Yet, these methods require a significant amount of hyperparameters tuning in order to achieve the best results. In particular, tuning the learning rates in the stochastic optimization process is still one of the main bottlenecks. In this paper, we propose a new stochastic gradient descent procedure for deep networks that does not require any learning rate setting. Contrary to previous methods, we do not adapt the learning rates nor we make use of the assumed curvature of the objective function. Instead, we reduce the optimization process to a game of betting on a coin and propose a learning rate free optimal algorithm for this scenario. Theoretical convergence is proven for convex and quasi-convex functions and empirical evidence shows the advantage of our algorithm over popular stochastic gradient algorithms.

Low-rank approximation is a common tool used to accelerate kernel methods: the $n \times n$ kernel matrix $K$ is approximated via a rank-$k$ matrix $\tilde K$ which can be stored in much less space and processed more quickly. In this work we study the limits of computationally efficient low-rank kernel approximation. We show that for a broad class of kernels, including the popular Gaussian and polynomial kernels, computing a relative error $k$-rank approximation to $K$ is at least as difficult as multiplying the input data matrix $A \in R^{n \times d}$ by an arbitrary matrix $C \in R^{d \times k}$. Barring a breakthrough in fast matrix multiplication, when $k$ is not too large, this requires $\Omega(nnz(A)k)$ time where $nnz(A)$ is the number of non-zeros in $A$. This lower bound matches, in many parameter regimes, recent work on subquadratic time algorithms for low-rank approximation of general kernels [MM16,MW17], demonstrating that these algorithms are unlikely to be significantly improved, in particular to $O(nnz(A))$ input sparsity runtimes. At the same time there is hope: we show for the first time that $O(nnz(A))$ time approximation is possible for general radial basis function kernels (e.g., the Gaussian kernel) for the closely related problem of low-rank approximation of the kernelized dataset.

Matrix factorization (MF) is one of the most popular techniques for product recommendation, but is known to suffer from serious cold-start problems. Item cold-start problems are particularly acute in settings such as Tweet recommendation where new items arrive continuously. In this paper, we present a meta-learning strategy to address item cold-start when new items arrive continuously. We propose two deep neural network architectures that implement our meta-learning strategy. The first architecture learns a linear classifier whose weights are determined by the item history while the second architecture learns a neural network whose biases are instead adjusted. We evaluate our techniques on the real-world problem of Tweet recommendation. On production data at Twitter, we demonstrate that our proposed techniques significantly beat the MF baseline and also outperform production models for Tweet recommendation.