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belief revision


Planning in Stochastic Environments with Goal Uncertainty

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

We present the Goal Uncertain Stochastic Shortest Path (GUSSP) problem -- a general framework to model path planning and decision making in stochastic environments with goal uncertainty. The framework extends the stochastic shortest path (SSP) model to dynamic environments in which it is impossible to determine the exact goal states ahead of plan execution. GUSSPs introduce flexibility in goal specification by allowing a belief over possible goal configurations. The unique observations at potential goals helps the agent identify the true goal during plan execution. The partial observability is restricted to goals, facilitating the reduction to an SSP with a modified state space. We formally define a GUSSP and discuss its theoretical properties. We then propose an admissible heuristic that reduces the planning time using FLARES -- a start-of-the-art probabilistic planner. We also propose a determinization approach for solving this class of problems. Finally, we present empirical results on a search and rescue mobile robot and three other problem domains in simulation.


Explosive Proofs of Mathematical Truths

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Mathematical proofs are both paradigms of certainty and some of the most explicitly-justified arguments that we have in the cultural record. Their very explicitness, however, leads to a paradox, because their probability of error grows exponentially as the argument expands. Here we show that under a cognitively-plausible belief formation mechanism that combines deductive and abductive reasoning, mathematical arguments can undergo what we call an epistemic phase transition: a dramatic and rapidly-propagating jump from uncertainty to near-complete confidence at reasonable levels of claim-to-claim error rates. To show this, we analyze an unusual dataset of forty-eight machine-aided proofs from the formalized reasoning system Coq, including major theorems ranging from ancient to 21st Century mathematics, along with four hand-constructed cases from Euclid, Apollonius, Spinoza, and Andrew Wiles. Our results bear both on recent work in the history and philosophy of mathematics, and on a question, basic to cognitive science, of how we form beliefs, and justify them to others.


Shaping Belief States with Generative Environment Models for RL

Neural Information Processing Systems

When agents interact with a complex environment, they must form and maintain beliefs about the relevant aspects of that environment. We propose a way to efficiently train expressive generative models in complex environments. We show that a predictive algorithm with an expressive generative model can form stable belief-states in visually rich and dynamic 3D environments. More precisely, we show that the learned representation captures the layout of the environment as well as the position and orientation of the agent. Our experiments show that the model substantially improves data-efficiency on a number of reinforcement learning (RL) tasks compared with strong model-free baseline agents.


Fast Convergence of Belief Propagation to Global Optima: Beyond Correlation Decay

Neural Information Processing Systems

Belief propagation is a fundamental message-passing algorithm for probabilistic reasoning and inference in graphical models. While it is known to be exact on trees, in most applications belief propagation is run on graphs with cycles. Understanding the behavior of loopy'' belief propagation has been a major challenge for researchers in machine learning, and several positive convergence results for BP are known under strong assumptions which imply the underlying graphical model exhibits decay of correlations. We show that under a natural initialization, BP converges quickly to the global optimum of the Bethe free energy for Ising models on arbitrary graphs, as long as the Ising model is \emph{ferromagnetic} (i.e. This holds even though such models can exhibit long range correlations and may have multiple suboptimal BP fixed points.


Neural Enhanced Belief Propagation on Factor Graphs

arXiv.org Machine Learning

A graphical model is a structured representation of locally dependent random variables. A traditional method to reason over these random variables is to perform inference using belief propagation. When provided with the true data generating process, belief propagation can infer the optimal posterior probability estimates in tree structured factor graphs. However, in many cases we may only have access to a poor approximation of the data generating process, or we may face loops in the factor graph, leading to suboptimal estimates. In this work we first extend graph neural networks to factor graphs (FG-GNN). We then propose a new hybrid model that runs conjointly a FG-GNN with belief propagation. The FG-GNN receives as input messages from belief propagation at every inference iteration and outputs a corrected version of them. As a result, we obtain a more accurate algorithm that combines the benefits of both belief propagation and graph neural networks. We apply our ideas to error correction decoding tasks, and we show that our algorithm can outperform belief propagation for LDPC codes on bursty channels.


Belief Base Revision for Further Improvement of Unified Answer Set Programming

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

In the domain of knowledge representation and reasoning belief revision plays an important role. The objective of belief revision is to study the process of belief change; i.e., when an rational agent comes across some new information, which contradicts his or her present believes, he or she has to retract some of the beliefs in order to accommodate the new information consistently. The three main principles on which the belief revision methodologies rely upon are; 1. Success: The new information must be accepted in the revised set of belief; 2. Consistency: The set of beliefs obtained after revision must be consistent; 3. Minimal Change: In order to restore consistency if some changes have to be incurred then the change should be as little as possible. The set of information of an rational agent can be represented by a deductively closed set of rules, i.e., a belief set, or by a set of rules that is


Relaxed Scheduling for Scalable Belief Propagation

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The ability to leverage large-scale hardware parallelism has been one of the key enablers of the accelerated recent progress in machine learning. Consequently, there has been considerable effort invested into developing efficient parallel variants of classic machine learning algorithms. However, despite the wealth of knowledge on parallelization, some classic machine learning algorithms often prove hard to parallelize efficiently while maintaining convergence. In this paper, we focus on efficient parallel algorithms for the key machine learning task of inference on graphical models, in particular on the fundamental belief propagation algorithm. We address the challenge of efficiently parallelizing this classic paradigm by showing how to leverage scalable relaxed schedulers in this context. We present an extensive empirical study, showing that our approach outperforms previous parallel belief propagation implementations both in terms of scalability and in terms of wall-clock convergence time, on a range of practical applications.


Linear programming analysis of loopy belief propagation for weighted matching

Neural Information Processing Systems

Loopy belief propagation has been employed in a wide variety of applications with great empirical success, but it comes with few theoretical guarantees. In this paper we investigate the use of the max-product form of belief propagation for weighted matching problems on general graphs. We show that max-product converges to the correct answer if the linear programming (LP) relaxation of the weighted matching problem is tight and does not converge if the LP relaxation is loose. This provides an exact characterization of max-product performance and reveals connections to the widely used optimization technique of LP relaxation. In addition, we demonstrate that max-product is effective in solving practical weighted matching problems in a distributed fashion by applying it to the problem of self-organization in sensor networks.


Graph Zeta Function in the Bethe Free Energy and Loopy Belief Propagation

Neural Information Processing Systems

We propose a new approach to the analysis of Loopy Belief Propagation (LBP) by establishing a formula that connects the Hessian of the Bethe free energy with the edge zeta function. The formula has a number of theoretical implications on LBP. It is applied to give a sufficient condition that the Hessian of the Bethe free energy is positive definite, which shows non-convexity for graphs with multiple cycles. The formula clarifies the relation between the local stability of a fixed point of LBP and local minima of the Bethe free energy. We also propose a new approach to the uniqueness of LBP fixed point, and show various conditions of uniqueness.


Monte-Carlo Planning in Large POMDPs

Neural Information Processing Systems

This paper introduces a Monte-Carlo algorithm for online planning in large POMDPs. The algorithm combines a Monte-Carlo update of the agent's belief state with a Monte-Carlo tree search from the current belief state. The new algorithm, POMCP, has two important properties. First, Monte-Carlo sampling is used to break the curse of dimensionality both during belief state updates and during planning. Second, only a black box simulator of the POMDP is required, rather than explicit probability distributions.