Zhong, Mingjun, Goddard, Nigel, Sutton, Charles

In many statistical problems, a more coarse-grained model may be suitable for population-level behaviour, whereas a more detailed model is appropriate for accurate modelling of individual behaviour. This raises the question of how to integrate both types of models. Methods such as posterior regularization follow the idea of generalized moment matching, in that they allow matchingexpectations between two models, but sometimes both models are most conveniently expressed as latent variable models. We propose latent Bayesian melding, which is motivated by averaging the distributions over populations statistics of both the individual-level and the population-level models under a logarithmic opinion pool framework. In a case study on electricity disaggregation, which is a type of single-channel blind source separation problem, we show that latent Bayesian melding leads to significantly more accurate predictions than an approach based solely on generalized moment matching.

Zhong, Mingjun, Goddard, Nigel, Sutton, Charles

Blind source separation problems are difficult because they are inherently unidentifiable, yet the entire goal is to identify meaningful sources. We introduce a way of incorporating domain knowledge into this problem, called signal aggregate constraints (SACs). SACs encourage the total signal for each of the unknown sources to be close to a specified value. This is based on the observation that the total signal often varies widely across the unknown sources, and we often have a good idea of what total values to expect. We incorporate SACs into an additive factorial hidden Markov model (AFHMM) to formulate the energy disaggregation problems where only one mixture signal is assumed to be observed.

Brewitt, Cillian, Goddard, Nigel

Non-intrusive load monitoring or energy disaggregation involves estimating the power consumption of individual appliances from measurements of the total power consumption of a home. Deep neural networks have been shown to be effective for energy disaggregation. In this work, we present a deep neural network architecture which achieves state of the art disaggregation performance with substantially improved computational efficiency, reducing model training time by a factor of 32 and prediction time by a factor of 43. This improvement in efficiency could be especially useful for applications where disaggregation must be performed in home on lower power devices, or for research experiments which involve training a large number of models.

Zhang, Chaoyun (University of Edinburgh) | Zhong, Mingjun (University of Lincoln) | Wang, Zongzuo (University of Edinburgh) | Goddard, Nigel (University of Edinburgh) | Sutton, Charles (University of Edinburgh)

Energy disaggregation (a.k.a nonintrusive load monitoring, NILM), a single-channel blind source separation problem, aims to decompose the mains which records the whole house electricity consumption into appliance-wise readings. This problem is difficult because it is inherently unidentifiable. Recent approaches have shown that the identifiability problem could be reduced by introducing domain knowledge into the model. Deep neural networks have been shown to be a promising approach for these problems, but sliding windows are necessary to handle the long sequences which arise in signal processing problems, which raises issues about how to combine predictions from different sliding windows. In this paper, we propose sequence-to-point learning, where the input is a window of the mains and the output is a single point of the target appliance. We use convolutional neural networks to train the model. Interestingly, we systematically show that the convolutional neural networks can inherently learn the signatures of the target appliances, which are automatically added into the model to reduce the identifiability problem. We applied the proposed neural network approaches to real-world household energy data, and show that the methods achieve state-of-the-art performance, improving two standard error measures by 84% and 92%.

Zhang, Chaoyun (University of Edinburgh) | Zhong, Mingjun (University of Lincoln) | Wang, Zongzuo (University of Edinburgh) | Goddard, Nigel (University of Edinburgh) | Sutton, Charles (University of Edinburgh)

Zhong, Mingjun, Goddard, Nigel, Sutton, Charles

Zhong, Mingjun, Goddard, Nigel, Sutton, Charles

In many statistical problems, a more coarse-grained model may be suitable for population-level behaviour, whereas a more detailed model is appropriate for accurate modelling of individual behaviour. This raises the question of how to integrate both types of models. Methods such as posterior regularization follow the idea of generalized moment matching, in that they allow matching expectations between two models, but sometimes both models are most conveniently expressed as latent variable models. We propose latent Bayesian melding, which is motivated by averaging the distributions over populations statistics of both the individual-level and the population-level models under a logarithmic opinion pool framework. In a case study on electricity disaggregation, which is a type of single-channel blind source separation problem, we show that latent Bayesian melding leads to significantly more accurate predictions than an approach based solely on generalized moment matching.

Zhong, Mingjun, Goddard, Nigel, Sutton, Charles

Blind source separation problems are difficult because they are inherently unidentifiable, yetthe entire goal is to identify meaningful sources. We introduce a way of incorporating domain knowledge into this problem, called signal aggregate constraints (SACs). SACs encourage the total signal for each of the unknown sources to be close to a specified value. This is based on the observation that the total signal often varies widely across the unknown sources, and we often have a good idea of what total values to expect. We incorporate SACs into an additive factorial hidden Markov model (AFHMM) to formulate the energy disaggregation problems where only one mixture signal is assumed to be observed. A convex quadratic program for approximate inference is employed for recovering those source signals. On a real-world energy disaggregation data set, we show that the use of SACs dramatically improves the original AFHMM, and significantly improves overa recent state-of-the-art approach.