to

### The Kernel Gibbs Sampler

This, however, should not be confused with n-tuple x denoting the training objects.

### Bayesian Transduction

Transduction is an inference principle that takes a training sample andaims at estimating the values of a function at given points contained in the so-called working sample as opposed to the whole of input space for induction. Transduction provides a confidence measure on single predictions rather than classifiers - a feature particularly important for risk-sensitive applications. The possibly infinite number of functions is reduced to a finite number of equivalence classeson the working sample. A rigorous Bayesian analysis reveals that for standard classification loss we cannot benefit from considering more than one test point at a time. The probability of the label of a given test point is determined as the posterior measure of the corresponding subset of hypothesis space.

### A PAC-Bayesian Margin Bound for Linear Classifiers: Why SVMs work

We present a bound on the generalisation error of linear classifiers in terms of a refined margin quantity on the training set. The result is obtained in a PAC-Bayesian framework and is based on geometrical arguments in the space of linear classifiers. The new bound constitutes an exponential improvement of the so far tightest margin bound by Shawe-Taylor et al.  and scales logarithmically in the inverse margin. Even in the case of less training examples than input dimensions sufficiently large margins lead to nontrivial bound values and - for maximum margins - to a vanishing complexity term.Furthermore, the classical margin is too coarse a measure for the essential quantity that controls the generalisation error: the volume ratio between the whole hypothesis space and the subset of consistent hypotheses. The practical relevance of the result lies in the fact that the well-known support vector machine is optimal w.r.t. the new bound only if the feature vectors are all of the same length. As a consequence we recommend to use SVMs on normalised feature vectors only - a recommendation that is well supported by our numerical experiments on two benchmark data sets. 1 Introduction Linear classifiers are exceedingly popular in the machine learning community due to their straightforward applicability and high flexibility which has recently been boosted by the so-called kernel methods . A natural and popular framework for the theoretical analysis of classifiers is the PAC (probably approximately correct) framework which is closely related to Vapnik's work on the generalisation error . For binary classifiers it turned out that the growth function is an appropriate measureof "complexity" and can tightly be upper bounded by the VC (Vapnik-Chervonenkis) dimension .

### From Margin to Sparsity

We present an improvement of Novikoff's perceptron convergence theorem. Reinterpreting this mistake bound as a margin dependent sparsity guarantee allows us to give a PACstyle generalisation error boundfor the classifier learned by the perceptron learning algorithm. Thebound value crucially depends on the margin a support vector machine would achieve on the same data set using the same kernel. Ironically, the bound yields better guarantees than are currently availablefor the support vector solution itself. 1 Introduction In the last few years there has been a large controversy about the significance of the attained margin, i.e. the smallest real valued output of a classifiers before thresholding, as an indicator of generalisation performance. Results in the YC, PAC and luckiness frameworks seem to indicate that a large margin is a prerequisite for small generalisation error bounds (see [14, 12]).

### The Relevance Vector Machine

The support vector machine (SVM) is a state-of-the-art technique for regression and classification, combining excellent generalisation properties with a sparse kernel representation. However, it does suffer from a number of disadvantages, notably the absence of probabilistic outputs,the requirement to estimate a tradeoff parameter and the need to utilise'Mercer' kernel functions. In this paper we introduce the Relevance Vector Machine (RVM), a Bayesian treatment ofa generalised linear model of identical functional form to the SVM. The RVM suffers from none of the above disadvantages, and examples demonstrate that for comparable generalisation performance, theRVM requires dramatically fewer kernel functions.