High-Resolution Road Vehicle Collision Prediction for the City of Montreal

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Road accidents are an important issue of our modern societies, responsible for millions of deaths and injuries every year in the world. In Quebec only, road accidents are responsible for hundreds of deaths and tens of thousands of injuries. In this paper, we show how one can leverage open datasets of a city like Montreal, Canada, to create high-resolution accident prediction models, using state-of-the-art big data analytics. Compared to other studies in road accident prediction, we have a much higher prediction resolution, i.e., our models predict the occurrence of an accident within an hour, on road segments defined by intersections. Such models could be used in the context of road accident prevention, but also to identify key factors that can lead to a road accident, and consequently, help elaborate new policies. We tested various machine learning methods to deal with the severe class imbalance inherent to accident prediction problems. In particular, we implemented the Balanced Random Forest algorithm, a variant of the Random Forest machine learning algorithm in Apache Spark. Experimental results show that 85% of road vehicle collisions are detected by our model with a false positive rate of 13%. The examples identified as positive are likely to correspond to high-risk situations. In addition, we identify the most important predictors of vehicle collisions for the area of Montreal: the count of accidents on the same road segment during previous years, the temperature, the day of the year, the hour and the visibility.


AMPL: A Data-Driven Modeling Pipeline for Drug Discovery

arXiv.org Machine Learning

One of the key requirements for incorporating machine learning into the drug discovery process is complete reproducibility and traceabil-ity of the model building and evaluation process. With this in mind, we have developed an end-to-end modular and extensible software pipeline for building and sharing machine learning models that predict key pharma-relevant parameters. The ATOM Modeling PipeLine, or AMPL, extends the functionality of the open source library DeepChem and supports an array of machine learning and molecular featurization tools. We have benchmarked AMPL on a large collection of pharmaceutical datasets covering a wide range of parameters. Our key findings include: - Physicochemical descriptors and deep learning-based graph representations significantly outperform traditional fingerprints in the characterization of molecular features. Likewise, dataset size has a direct impact on model predictivity, independent of comprehensive hyperparameter model tuning. Our findings point to the need for public dataset integration or multi-task/transfer learning approaches. AMPL is open source and available for download at http://github.com/ATOMconsortium/ AMPL. Introduction Discovery of new compounds to treat human disease is a multifaceted process involving the selection of chemicals with favorable pharmacological properties: a high potency to the desired target, elimination or minimization of safety liabilities, and a favorable pharmacokinetic (PK) profile. To address this challenge, the drug discoverer has a wealth of choices, with total "drug-like" chemical matter estimated between 10 22 -10 60 unique molecules. Many of these molecules require de novo synthesis, which is a rate-limiting step.


Glossary of Machine Learning Terms

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ROC curves are widely used because they are relatively simple to understand and capture more than one aspect of the classification.


Fraud Detection Using Random Forest, Neural Autoencoder, and Isolation Forest Techniques

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With global credit card fraud loss on the rise, it is important for banks, as well as e-commerce companies, to be able to detect fraudulent transactions (before they are completed). According to the Nilson Report, a publication covering the card and mobile payment industry, global card fraud losses amounted to $22.8 billion in 2016, an increase of 4.4% over 2015. This confirms the importance of the early detection of fraud in credit card transactions. Fraud detection in credit card transactions is a very wide and complex field. Over the years, a number of techniques have been proposed, mostly stemming from the anomaly detection branch of data science. In the first scenario, we can deal with the problem of fraud detection by using classic machine learning or statistics-based techniques. We can train a machine learning model or calculate some probabilities for the two classes (legitimate transactions and fraudulent transactions) and apply the model to new transactions so as to estimate their legitimacy.


An in-depth guide to supervised machine learning classification

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In supervised learning, algorithms learn from labeled data. After understanding the data, the algorithm determines which label should be given to new data by associating patterns to the unlabeled new data. Supervised learning can be divided into two categories: classification and regression. Some examples of classification include spam detection, churn prediction, sentiment analysis, dog breed detection and so on. Some examples of regression include house price prediction, stock price prediction, height-weight prediction and so on.