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Classification vs. Prediction Statistical Thinking


It is important to distinguish prediction and classification. In many decisionmaking contexts, classification represents a premature decision, because classification combines prediction and decision making and usurps the decision maker in specifying costs of wrong decisions. The classification rule must be reformulated if costs/utilities or sampling criteria change. Predictions are separate from decisions and can be used by any decision maker. Classification is best used with non-stochastic/deterministic outcomes that occur frequently, and not when two individuals with identical inputs can easily have different outcomes.

Classification vs. Prediction


The field of machine learning arose somewhat independently of the field of statistics. As a result, machine learning experts tend not to emphasize probabilistic thinking. Probabilistic thinking and understanding uncertainty and variation are hallmarks of statistics. By the way, one of the best books about probabilistic thinking is Nate Silver's The Signal and The Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail But Some Don't. In the medical field, a classic paper is David Spiegelhalter's Probabilistic Prediction in Patient Management and Clinical Trials.

Road Map for Choosing Between Statistical Modeling and Machine Learning


When we raise money it's AI, when we hire it's machine learning, and when we do the work it's logistic regression. Machine learning (ML) may be distinguished from statistical models (SM) using any of three considerations: Uncertainty: SMs explicitly take uncertainty into account by specifying a probabilistic model for the data. Structural: SMs typically start by assuming additivity of predictor effects when specifying the model. Empirical: ML is more empirical including allowance for high-order interactions that are not pre-specified, whereas SMs have identified parameters of special interest. There is a growing number of hybrid methods combining characteristics of traditional SMs and ML, especially in the Bayesian world.

Machine Learning Classification Methods and Factor Investing


Regression predicts a continuous value: for example, the return on an asset. Classification predicts a discrete value: for example, will a stock outperform next period? This is a binary classification problem, predicting a yes/no response. Another example: Which quartile will a stock's performance fall into next month? This is multinomial classification, predicting a categorical variable with 4 possible outcomes.

A Review of Statistical Learning Machines from ATR to DNA Microarrays: design, assessment, and advice for practitioners Machine Learning

Statistical Learning is the process of estimating an unknown probabilistic input-output relationship of a system using a limited number of observations; and a statistical learning machine (SLM) is the machine that learned such a process. While their roots grow deeply in Probability Theory, SLMs are ubiquitous in the modern world. Automatic Target Recognition (ATR) in military applications, Computer Aided Diagnosis (CAD) in medical imaging, DNA microarrays in Genomics, Optical Character Recognition (OCR), Speech Recognition (SR), spam email filtering, stock market prediction, etc., are few examples and applications for SLM; diverse fields but one theory. The field of Statistical Learning can be decomposed to two basic subfields, Design and Assessment. Three main groups of specializations-namely statisticians, engineers, and computer scientists (ordered ascendingly by programming capabilities and descendingly by mathematical rigor)-exist on the venue of this field and each takes its elephant bite. Exaggerated rigorous analysis of statisticians sometimes deprives them from considering new ML techniques and methods that, yet, have no "complete" mathematical theory. On the other hand, immoderate add-hoc simulations of computer scientists sometimes derive them towards unjustified and immature results. A prudent approach is needed that has the enough flexibility to utilize simulations and trials and errors without sacrificing any rigor. If this prudent attitude is necessary for this field it is necessary, as well, in other fields of Engineering.